The Wall Street Journal quoted US officials as saying that the United States is pushing for direct nuclear talks with Iran, as the Trump administration pursues an ambitious goal: dismantling Tehran's nuclear program.
If Iran agrees to participate, these talks will be the first sustained direct negotiations between the two countries since President Trump withdrew from the previous nuclear agreement in 2018. The Trump administration seeks to go beyond what was achieved in that agreement, which was negotiated by the Obama administration and concluded in July 2015 (according to an accelerated timetable).
According to experts, President Trump's mission is likely to be a daunting one. For decades, Tehran has refused to abandon its nuclear program, insisting on its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. After years of negotiations, a US agreement allowing Tehran to continue enriching uranium in large quantities was a key factor in resolving the outstanding issues and led to the 2015 nuclear agreement.
"But that won't be enough this time," said a senior administration official, who said the United States would seek to eliminate the program. Speaking Thursday evening, Trump told reporters that direct talks were preferable. "I think they go faster, and you understand the other side much better, than through intermediaries," he said. "I know for sure they would like to have direct talks."
Iranian officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Friday.
The Iranian leadership informed Trump in a letter last week of its openness to indirect talks, which would be mediated by another country, according to Iranian officials. A senior advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei indicated that Tehran may be open to direct negotiations with Washington at a later date.
The senior US official said the Trump administration is seeking direct talks between senior officials from both sides and wants to avoid a situation in which negotiators are on different floors of the same hotel, exchanging messages back and forth for months or years at a time. US officials have held indirect talks with their Iranian counterparts during the Biden administration after Tehran refused to hold direct face-to-face meetings. The Trump administration's special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, is likely to participate in the negotiating efforts, although the team or location has not been announced.
US sources claim that Iran's stockpile of fissile material is growing rapidly, and that it would only take a week or two to acquire enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon. US intelligence informed Congress last week that Khamenei has not made a decision to assemble a nuclear device, although they believe pressure is likely mounting on him to do so.
Trump has stated that he wants a diplomatic solution, but in recent days he has threatened to bomb Iran if it does not negotiate an agreement to limit its nuclear programs. Last month, Trump sent a letter to Khamenei, saying there would be a two-month deadline to reach an agreement, according to two people familiar with its contents.
The United States has intensified military pressure as part of its diplomatic efforts. The US Department of Defense is expanding the US military presence in the Middle East, deploying two aircraft carrier groups to the region, along with F-35 fighter jets, B-2 bombers, and Patriot air defense systems.
The United States stated that these actions are not preparations for an imminent strike on Iran, but rather support for the US campaign against one of Tehran's regional allies, the Houthis in Yemen. The White House warned that it would hold Iran accountable if the Houthis fired on US forces.
Israel claims to have destroyed a significant portion of Iran's air defenses in recent strikes in response to Iranian missile barrages, striking Iranian-aligned militias in the region that had previously served as a deterrent to Israeli military options. This has weakened Iran, and some believe it may have created the conditions necessary to persuade it to agree to concessions on its nuclear program.
“With Iran reeling from Israeli military strikes and its domestic economy weakening, Trump senses an opportunity to increase pressure on the Iranian leadership in the hope that it will see a new agreement with the United States as the only way out,” Michael Singh, a former National Security Council official for Middle East affairs, told the Wall Street Journal.
But Iran has its own leverage. Officials and experts believe Tehran is closer than ever to being able to build a nuclear weapon—likely just months away if it proceeds. Iran is also producing roughly one nuclear weapon's worth of highly enriched uranium per month, which it could quickly convert into bomb-grade fuel.
Singh warned that the two-month deadline Trump set in his letter to Iran puts pressure on Washington as well as Tehran. He said the Trump administration "may soon find itself facing a decision on military action that it certainly hopes to postpone."
It is not yet clear when the two-month deadline, previously reported by Axios, is supposed to start.
Israel has long vowed to take military action to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in February that under Trump's leadership, he has "no doubt that we can and will accomplish the mission" against Iran. While Israeli officials have always favored a coordinated attack with US forces against Iranian nuclear sites, there is growing confidence in Israel that, with Iran weakened militarily, Israel could launch a direct strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.
A former US defense official stated that a coordinated US-Israeli air campaign could inflict significant damage on Iran's nuclear facilities, but would likely need to be repeated within nine months or a year if Tehran sought to rebuild the program. Iranian officials have warned that if attacked, they could expel international inspectors and continue their program in secret.
Experts acknowledged that one of the United States' main concerns is that Iran might respond to any attack by launching missiles at Gulf states and attacking Gulf oil trade. This would place significant importance on US missile defense and operations to protect sea lanes.
Senior US officials have announced strict conditions for reaching an agreement. US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said last Sunday that Iran must abandon all aspects of its nuclear program—uranium enrichment, the construction of strategic ballistic missiles, and halt work on developing a nuclear weapon.
For two decades, Iran has portrayed its nuclear program as a pivotal achievement for its regime and has refused to dismantle it despite extensive diplomatic pressure and international sanctions. Iran has also repeatedly emphasized that it will never negotiate its ballistic missile program, which it considers vital to its defense and its ability to deter Israel and other enemies.
According to experts, Iran has extensive experience using talks to relieve pressure and preserve its nuclear program. Richard Nephew, a senior official in negotiations with Iran under the Biden and Obama administrations, said the Iranians will try to avoid putting themselves in a position where they are forced to make a yes-or-no decision. He added, "They will always want to find a third way that saves time and space." If Iran adheres to its traditional red lines, it could quickly force Washington to make a difficult decision about how to respond and whether to continue negotiations.
"If any evil act is committed against Iran, it will receive a strong blow in return," Khamenei said on Monday.
Iranian officials say they are ready to strike Israel and US forces in the region with the country's large stockpile of ballistic missiles if attacked.
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The United States is pressuring Iran to hold direct nuclear talks.