On Friday, former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak published an opinion article in which he analyzed the war on Gaza, the future of the Strip, and who will rule it the next day.

Ehud Barak said in the article published by the Israeli Channel 12, “Despite the clear American support and the openness of many countries in the region to study new ideas to solve the problem in Gaza at the beginning of the war, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu systematically avoided any discussion about what will happen here in the end.

Barak added, “October 7, 2023 is the most dangerous event in the history of Israel, which led to the killing of 1,300 people and the kidnapping of 250 others, in addition to humiliation, inefficiency, and dysfunction in the state’s systems.

The former Israeli Prime Minister stressed that this created a multidimensional and unprecedented crisis of confidence.

He reported in the context that the security apparatus quickly came to its senses and immediately went to war with Hamas.

What has been accomplished so far?

Ehud Barak stated that after about three months of fighting and in difficult circumstances, the Israeli army achieved great achievements, stressing that the goals of the war are still far from being achieved.

The former minister added that Hamas still controls the Rafah and Al-Mawasi areas, where more than one and a half million people are concentrated, and they are the absolute majority of the citizens of the Gaza Strip.

He claimed that Hamas' military capabilities were severely damaged in the areas where the Israeli army was operating, stressing that the movement still maintains significant operational capabilities in parts of the Gaza Strip that have not yet been destroyed.

He stated in his article that there is no concrete agreement on the table regarding the hostages, noting that Hamas is demanding “an end to the war,” which should not be agreed upon as a condition of the deal.

He also touched on the confrontation with Hezbollah, where he confirmed that serious damage had occurred on both sides, and the matter could expand into a comprehensive conflict if Israel was forced to use force to remove Hezbollah from the border if the attempt to reach a political agreement regarding the implementation of Resolution 1701 failed.

"The next day"

In the face of these circumstances and in order to achieve its goals, Israel had to, from day one, discuss the broad outlines of the “next day” with the Americans and with them, or through them, with Egypt, Jordan, the Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.

He stated that these neighbors are part of the “moderate axis” formed by the United States in front of the “rebellious axis” that includes Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and others.

In this context, the former minister cited an old Roman proverb that says, “If you do not know which port you are seeking to reach, the wind will not reach you,” and this applies to the Israeli government these days.

What does Israel want?

Israel, and rightly so, is not prepared for Hamas to continue to rule Gaza and pose a threat to its citizens, and seeks to undermine its military and governmental capabilities and replace it with another party. On the other hand, Israel does not intend, with the exception of Ben Gvir and Smotrich, to remain permanently a civilian ruler in Gaza and accept 2.2 million Palestinians under its responsibility, due to the consequences that this will have, indicating that the Palestinians are not moving anywhere.

He continued, saying: "Those who believe that it is possible in 2024 to embark on the 'voluntary migration' of millions of Gazans - a euphemism for the word 'transfer' - are daydreaming."

"The right scheme"

Who can take responsibility? No Arab ruler, even a friend of Israel, would agree to do this on a regular basis.

The most likely solution is a joint Arab force from countries that have peace or normalization agreements with Israel, as well as Saudi Arabia. For example, a force led by Egypt and supported by the United States and the Arab League. The force takes control of the Gaza Strip from Israel with the end of the reduction of Hamas’ ruling powers for a limited period ranging between six months and a year. With the possibility of extension.

During these months, the force will gradually work to return the Gaza Strip to civilian control and management by the “reinforced Palestinian Authority.” The force can also continue to work alongside the Palestinian Authority for an additional period of time, which will allow the dismantling of the remaining Hamas operational capacity, especially missiles and weapons.

“Taking into account Israel’s perimeter security needs, freedom of action, security supervision against the entry of weapons, etc., the “moderate axis” countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, can be a factor in financing reconstruction and infrastructure projects in Gaza, including an electricity and water station. A locality and a port under security supervision,” according to the proposal that Barak sees.

Outline

The Israeli minister added, saying: “These are the broad outlines of the reasonable solution, which is almost the only one, and whoever tries to thwart it will be responsible for Israel remaining stuck in the mud of Gaza for many years, a situation that will be very destructive and bloody, or the alternative is the return of Hamas to power or dangerous chaos under the control of tribal gangs.” 

He continued, saying: “The solution could mature in some differences regarding this or that detail, as a result of the required negotiation and coordination, and it is clear that the Palestinian Authority must achieve a real leap in the ability and will to move, and it is also clear that the government apparatus will contain many residents.” Gazans include technocrats with an Islamic background, but those who were not involved in any armed activity.”

Ehud Barak stressed that there is no ideal solution, stressing that a practical alternative must be chosen that erases Hamas from being an organization with military capabilities on the border with Israel, and this plan is capable of passing this test, in reference to the proposal that he explained previously.

In this regard, he pointed out that even if Netanyahu promised something along these lines, there would not be a single person in the White House or in any of the regional capitals who would believe him.

What's the solution?

The painful conclusion is that the only reasonable outlines that meet the Israeli, American and regional interests of the “axis of moderates” cannot be in a single surrender with Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel, and with Ben Gvir and Smotrich as ministers.

Barak stressed that the continuation of this government’s rule will inevitably lead to the loss of the opportunity to adopt the only possible plan and to fall into one of the two things, “the shameful descent from the tree” without achieving the goals of the war in Gaza, with the increasing risk of fire in the north and dangerous friction with the United States, while blaming the situation. Shame on the Israeli army and security forces on the one hand, and on President Biden on the other hand, for taking a wild gamble in the form of trying to drag the United States against its will into a regional conflict with Iran, indicating that none of it should be allowed to happen.

He concluded his article by saying: “Reality is knocking on the door and demanding an answer: Where are we heading? We need to decide, and it is not possible that the person who bears the main responsibility for the abyss into which we have fallen will also be the person who will direct our path from the abyss to the sunlit landscape.” The time has come for new elections, the people, and only the people can decide who will be entrusted with the steering wheel, and what path is chosen to achieve the goals of the war, restore Israel’s stability, achieve security and restore self-confidence and confidence in the leadership,” indicating that the path of correction will not Be short or easy.