Dr. Amjad Abu Al-Ezz: Blinken is trying to promote his plan for the “day after war” and postpone the strike on Iran until after the US elections

Dr. Hussein Al-Deek: Blinken seeks to send three main messages, and his chances of success in reaching a ceasefire before the US elections are slim

Dr. Jamal Harfoush: Blinken's tour is part of America's strategy to enhance its regional hegemony and arrange the situation in a manner consistent with its interests and those of its allies

Akram Atallah: Blinken's tour comes within the framework of the "American stuttering" and the White House finds itself besieged by time constraints and complex challenges

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's tour of the region, which began yesterday, Monday, is the culmination of eleven tours he has made to the Middle East since October 7 of last year, during which he failed to stop the war on the Gaza Strip, and at times the war was even more intense. Can he succeed this time in stopping the war and starting the negotiations again, or is it just a maneuver by Blinken before the elections in which he will leave office?

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is touring Israel and other countries in the Middle East between October 21 and 25. He will hold meetings in Israel today, Tuesday, and will discuss several issues related to the region in the countries of the region, most notably: ending the Gaza war, ways to draw up a plan for the post-war period in the Strip, as well as how to reach a diplomatic solution to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

In separate interviews with “I,” political writers, analysts, and specialists believe that Blinken is trying to convince Israel to postpone any potential military strike against Iran until after the US presidential elections. He is also trying to reach a ceasefire deal in Gaza, and perhaps trying to calm tensions on the Lebanese front. Blinken is also trying to promote a plan for managing the situation in Gaza after the war ends.

Speakers believe that Blinken's tour comes in the context of domestic considerations as well, as it aims to send messages to American society and voters that the current administration is seeking to reach diplomatic solutions in the Arab-Israeli conflict, but speakers doubt Blinken's ability to achieve any major breakthroughs in these files as he and the Biden administration approach their departure.

Multiple goals for Blinken's tour

Dr. Amjad Abu Al-Ezz, writer, political analyst, and professor of international relations at the Arab American University, believes that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s tour to the Middle East comes within the framework of multiple goals, reflecting Washington’s attempts to deal with several urgent and intertwined files in the region.

The first goal of this tour, according to Abu al-Ezz, is to try to convince Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to postpone any military strike on Iran until after the US presidential elections.

Abu Al-Ezz points out that Blinken is striving to avoid a major escalation in the region, which could negatively affect President Joe Biden's administration during the election period.

He believes that Blinken's success in delaying the strike could be considered a "gift" to Kamala Harris, who faces challenges in mobilizing electoral support.

However, Abu Al-Ezz doubts that Netanyahu will accept this postponement, as the latter has a strong position within Israel and will not allow this political “victory” to be presented to the Democratic American administration.

The second goal of Blinken's tour, according to Abu Al-Ezz, is that Blinken seeks to conclude a deal to stop the war in the Gaza Strip for 21 days, in light of recent developments, including the martyrdom of the head of the political bureau of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, who America and Israel believe is one of the main obstacles to reaching any understandings.

Abu Al-Ezz believes that there is a rapprochement between Hamas and Israel on some aspects of this deal, while Abu Al-Ezz indicates that this deal will not be completed according to Blinken’s terms entirely, because both sides (Hamas and Israel) seek to impose their own terms and achieve field and political gains before reaching any agreement.

The third goal of Blinken's tour, according to Abu Al-Ezz, is to try to coordinate a truce on the Lebanese front, as southern Lebanon faces rising tensions as a result of the escalation between Hezbollah and Israel.

He explains that the United States is seeking to calm this tension to ensure that a new front is not opened that would lead to an expansion of the war in the region, especially with the focus on Gaza and Iran. Blinken realizes that the stability of the Lebanese-Israeli border is an important element in maintaining regional security, and therefore he is working to find a formula for calm.

According to Abu Al-Ezz, the fourth and final goal is to promote Blinken's plan for the "day after the war" to manage Gaza after the war ends.

The success of the round depends on reaching regional and international consensus.

He points out that there are different political visions among Arabs, Palestinians and Israelis regarding future scenarios, and that Blinken's tour aims to examine the possibility of implementing any of these visions on the ground in accordance with his plan.

Abu Al-Ezz believes that Blinken's success in achieving any of these goals depends on reaching regional and international consensus, which may be difficult in light of the current circumstances and political and field complexities witnessed by the region.

Domestic Considerations of US Policy

Dr. Hussein Al-Deek, a writer, political analyst and specialist in American affairs, believes that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's recent tour of the Middle East comes within the framework of internal considerations of American policy.

According to Al-Deek, this tour comes within the context of the current US administration, which is facing a disastrous failure to stop the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, at a time when the US administration has identified with the goals of this aggression and provided additional political and military support to Benjamin Netanyahu's government.

According to Al-Deek, Blinken seeks through this tour to send three main messages. The first message is directed to American society and voters, stating that the American administration is still paying attention to the Arab-Israeli conflict file, and that it is working to stop the war and try to reach new understandings that may open a path for negotiations.

The second message, according to Al-Deek, is directed to the Israeli interior, specifically to the families of the Israeli detainees in Gaza, to confirm that the United States seeks to release them and provide support to Israel in this context.

Al-Deek points out that the third message is to court the Zionist lobby in the United States and American Jews to attract their votes, as opinion polls indicate a decline in American Jews’ support for the Democratic administration, as their support rate dropped from 80% in the 2020 elections to 65% in favor of Kamala Harris in the upcoming elections, which reflects a state of anxiety among the American Democratic administration about losing this influential support.

He stressed that Blinken's tour also carries messages to the Middle Eastern countries, as it aims to reassure regional allies that the United States remains committed to the security and stability of the region, in light of the escalating tension between Israel and Iran and the possibility of an imminent Israeli strike on vital Iranian sites.

Al-Deek points out that there are understandings between Washington and Tel Aviv regarding this strike, but Benjamin Netanyahu’s declared ambitions at the UN General Assembly, which aim to redraw the map of the Middle East, may make it difficult for him to adhere to these understandings, which weakens the chances of diplomatic success at the present time.

Al-Deek believes that one of the goals of Blinken's tour is to confirm the continuation of oil and gas supplies from the region to the United States and Western Europe, in light of what military escalation with Iran could cause in terms of a rise in global oil prices and disruption of international trade routes.

Al-Deek points out that securing these supplies is a vital issue for the stability of the global economy, especially with the possibility of a major energy crisis if the Israeli strike is carried out.

The wars on Gaza and southern Lebanon

Regarding the Gaza Strip, Al-Deek points out that Blinken's chances of succeeding in reaching a truce or ceasefire before the US elections are slim, due to the hardline positions adopted by the Israeli right and Netanyahu's government, which wants to reach a temporary calm and continues to raise the ceiling of its demands, whether in Gaza or on the southern Lebanon front.

Al-Deek points out that Netanyahu's proposals to stop the war for two weeks are rejected by Hamas, especially if they do not include a complete withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip.

Regarding southern Lebanon, Al-Deek explains that Netanyahu is demanding serious and major matters, as he is demanding an amendment to Resolution 1701 to allow the Israeli army to carry out military operations inside Lebanese territory after the ceasefire, and he is also reviving Resolution 1559, which calls for the disarmament of all militias in Lebanon, with the exception of the army and the Lebanese government.

According to Al-Deek, these demands indicate an Israeli escalation on various fronts, in light of the growing popular support for the Likud Party and the increasing support of the right-wing camp, which strengthens Netanyahu's hardline position and makes it difficult to achieve any diplomatic breakthrough at the current stage.

Overall, Al-Deek believes that Blinken's tour may lead to the launch of new negotiations, but it will not lead to real solutions, and the crisis will remain likely to escalate in the near term.

There is no serious American intention to stop the ongoing Israeli aggression against the Palestinian people.

Dr. Jamal Harfoush, Professor of Scientific Research Methods and Political Studies at the University of the Academic Research Center in Brazil, explains that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s tour of the Middle East is not limited to trying to stop the aggression or open political horizons to resolve the Palestinian issue, but is part of a broader US strategy to strengthen its regional hegemony and arrange the situation in a manner consistent with its interests and the interests of its allies, most notably Israel.

Harfoush explains that the statements made by Blinken during his tours of the region and the meetings he held indicate that there is no serious intention to stop the ongoing Israeli aggression against the Palestinian people. Rather, these moves aim to calm the growing international criticism of the United States due to its biased position towards Israel.

According to Dr. Harfoush, Blinken's visit is nothing more than an attempt to save face in the face of international pressure, while American support for Israel continues unabated, in the absence of any real moves to stop the "war of extermination" against the Palestinians.

Harfoush believes that the tour, despite its political appearance, reinforces the existing reality without recognizing the basic rights of the Palestinians, especially their right to life and security.

The timing of the tour raises questions about its true motives.

According to Harfoush, the timing chosen by the US administration to send Blinken to the region raises questions about the real motives behind the visit. This visit, which came at the height of the Israeli military escalation against Gaza and the increase in regional tensions, may be a prelude to larger military moves.

Harfoush believes that the United States may exploit this situation to launch a potential strike against Iran, as part of its regional policy aimed at rearranging the situation in a way that serves its interests.

Harfoush believes that these moves are nothing but signs that Washington may be about to ignite more tensions in a region that is already full of crises, which could lead to disastrous results on the regional and international levels, with the aggravation of the suffering of the Palestinian people.

Harfoush points out that this visit confirms the continuation of American plans in the region, which focus primarily on supporting the Israeli occupation and consolidating its influence at the expense of the Palestinians.

Harfoush believes that Blinken's tour is a literal implementation of a long-term American strategy aimed at imposing a new reality that serves the interests of the Israeli occupation, without regard to the rights of the Palestinians or moving towards any comprehensive political solution.

Using Middle East Issues as a Pressure Card in the US Elections

History, according to Dr. Harfoush, shows that the United States often uses Middle East issues as a pressure card in domestic elections, and hence the electoral aspect emerges as an influential factor in Blinken’s recent moves. American administrations realize that achieving any tangible progress in stopping the aggression or concluding a political deal could constitute an important electoral achievement for the current American administration.

But on the other hand, Harfoush points out that the continued support for Israel, imposed by US interests in the region, makes it difficult to truly stop the aggression or reach a radical solution to the crisis.

What we are currently witnessing, according to Harfoush, is merely a political maneuver aimed at gaining electoral support and circumventing influential lobbies, without any real intention to resolve the Palestinian issue or end the suffering of the Palestinian people.

A cry for help to the international community to stop the genocide crimes in Gaza

Harfoush directs a cry for help to the international community and human rights institutions to take immediate action to stop the "genocidal war" waged by Israel against the Palestinians with direct American and European support.

Harfoush expresses his dissatisfaction with the Arab silence regarding these massacres, which he considers a sign of impotence, pointing out that this impotence deepens the suffering of the Palestinians and opens the door to more violations.

Harfoush calls on the international community to assume its moral and humanitarian responsibilities, and work to stop the bloodshed and protect the Palestinians, stressing that human dignity and Palestinian rights must not be subject to compromise.

Netanyahu seeks to exploit this limited period to ignite a regional war

Writer and political analyst Akram Atallah explains that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's tour of the region comes within the framework of what he describes as a state of "American stuttering," as the White House finds itself besieged by time constraints and complex challenges, especially with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu heading towards a major escalation of the situation before the upcoming US elections.

Atallah points out that the US administration is aware that Netanyahu is seeking to exploit this limited period to ignite a regional war, in order to achieve political gains inside Israel, in addition to trying to drag the United States into a larger conflict with Iran.

Atallah points out that American attempts to mitigate the severity of the Israeli response fall within the framework of Washington's efforts to calm tensions, especially with regard to Lebanon.

In this context, Atallah believes that Washington is seeking to conclude a deal that would limit regional escalation, as stopping the war in Gaza could automatically lead to calming the situation in Lebanon, which makes the possibility of responding to Iran questionable.

The US's ability to de-escalate is currently very limited.

However, Atallah believes that the United States' ability to stop this escalation is very limited, especially in light of its realization that its ability to influence the Israeli decision has become minimal.

Atallah believes that Blinken, despite his attempts, will not be able to stop the war, as the Biden administration has exhausted all available tools to pressure Israel, including enticement to deploy the American THAAD missile defense system, as well as intimidation through leaks from the Pentagon documents, as these documents indicate Israel’s seriousness in striking Iran, and are an American attempt to mitigate the severity of this potential attack. By leaking this information, the United States is sending a message to Iran warning it to evacuate the targeted sites, which may lead to reducing the size of the Israeli strike, and thus reducing the possibility of Iran’s response.

Atallah explains that these leaks, which have opened investigations within the United States into the authenticity of the documents, confirm that American concerns are real.

However, Atallah doubts Washington’s ability to prevent Netanyahu from moving forward with his plans to strike Iran. Netanyahu, who sees this period as his last chance before the US elections, is trying to drag the United States into a direct confrontation with Iran, and he is fully aware that this opportunity may not come again if the US administration changes.

Netanyahu exploits time factor and US electoral pressures

Atallah points out that Netanyahu is relying in his plan on exploiting the time factor and American electoral pressures, as there are only two weeks left until the elections, and the Israelis estimate that the strike against Iran may occur within days, which puts the American administration in a critical position.

According to Atallah, the tools that Washington is currently using remain “soft tools” that do not reach the stage of truly compelling Netanyahu to back down from his plans.

From Atallah’s point of view, all American moves during this period are focused primarily on the upcoming American elections. Netanyahu has managed to drag the White House to where he wants, taking advantage of two basic strategies: either to force the Democrats to submit to his programs, or to contribute to their political downfall, and thus his close friend Donald Trump will come, who will be more willing to implement all Israeli projects without hesitation.