Professor John Dabit: Elections will be decisive and Harris seeks to build bridges of communication with Arab and Muslim communities

Maher Abdel Qader: Harris and Trump support Israel... and Arabs and Muslims in America may decide the election results

Dr. Abdul Wahab Al-Qassab: Biden’s strong support for Israel in the Gaza war negatively affected the Arab and Muslim voter base

Dr. Amani Al-Qarm: It is not easy for Harris, as Vice President, to get rid of the restrictions of the Biden administration and what it did or did not do

Lawyer Moein Odeh: The upcoming elections do not concern the United States alone, but rather carry a special and pivotal importance that may determine the course of the world.

Daoud Kitab: Multiple conflicts reflected in the upcoming US elections, and the impact of their results will be limited on the Middle East

As American voters head to the polls on November 5 to elect a new US president to succeed Joe Biden, the campaigns of presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are escalating their personal attacks, in what experts describe as a "last-minute strategy" to overturn the results of the election race.

Analysts and writers spoke in this report to "I" about these elections, which they considered to be among the most competitive American elections. Some of them believe that the impact of its results is not limited to the United States only, as it carries a special and pivotal importance that may determine the course of the world, while others believe that the impact of its results will be limited to the Middle East, as both candidates do not hide their support for Israel in the events sweeping the region.

Harris's orientations differ from Biden's

The upcoming US elections on November 5 will be very decisive, said Professor John Dabit, a member of the Iowa Democratic Central Committee and the party's candidate for the state's Senate.

He explained that these elections come amid strong competition between Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, especially in swing states, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona.

Dabit stressed that the outcome of the elections will be determined by the swing states in which neither candidate has yet won control, noting that the difference between the candidates according to statistical polls is very small and constantly changing, and on some days, Trump is ahead by a small percentage, and on other days, Harris is ahead.

Trump's success poses a threat to public freedoms

Dabit indicated that he supports Kamala Harris’s victory in the elections for several reasons; the first is that a Harris administration will enable Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims in the United States to maintain their status and influence, compared to what might happen if Trump wins.

He explained that Trump, during his previous presidency, made several decisions hostile to the Palestinians, such as closing the Palestine Liberation Organization office in Washington and moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

Dabit also stressed that Harris seeks to build bridges of communication with the Palestinian, Arab and Muslim communities, expressing his disagreement with the assessment that the Harris administration will be an extension of Biden's policy.

He stressed that Harris will present her own presidential program, noting that she has never declared absolute support for Israel as Biden did, who described himself as a Zionist more than once.

He warned that the victory of former President Donald Trump would lead to a decline in public freedoms and human rights in the United States.

Dabit said that Trump has been seeking to restrict public freedoms since his previous term, stressing that his success in the elections will give him the opportunity to appoint new judges to the Supreme Court, which will pose a threat to the freedoms and basic rights of citizens.

Dabit spoke about his ongoing efforts to reach out to the community and urge them to support Harris, saying: “We are working around the clock to reach out to the community and get the facts across to them, because supporting any third candidate in this close election could boost Trump’s chances of success.”

Regarding Harris's positions, Dabit pointed out that she adopts a balanced position regarding the Palestinian issue, as she supports the Palestinians' right to freedom and the establishment of their state, without adopting a biased position towards any party.

He added: "Harris is different from the current President Joe Biden, who has repeatedly declared that he is a Zionist and continues to support Israel. We must realize the big difference between the two."

He stressed that American policy is determined by the presidency, not the vice president, which means that the Harris administration will be completely different from the Biden administration, noting that Harris' success will ensure the continuation of dialogue and cooperation with the Palestinian and Arab community in the United States.

Dabit called on members of the Palestinian, Arab and Muslim communities to support Harris, especially in swing states, because her victory would guarantee them a seat at the decision-making table, which could change radically if Trump is elected.

Arabs and Muslims in America may decide the election

Maher Abdel Qader, President of the Palestinian American Congress - Washington, stated that the US presidential elections are approaching their decisive date with less than 17 days remaining until the start, noting that the US electoral system is based on the Electoral College, which consists of 538 points representing the US states, and the candidate needs to win 270 points to become the next president of the United States.

He pointed out that the latest opinion polls indicate that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is ahead, receiving the support of 49% of voters, while Republican candidate Donald Trump received 47% of the votes.

He pointed out that there is a third candidate, Jill Stein of the Green Party, who has the support of some Arabs, Muslims and left-wingers, but her chances are very weak and she may get less than 3% of the votes.

Abdul Qader, a prominent member of the Democratic Party, explained that there are seven swing states that play a decisive role in determining the winner of the elections, as these states sometimes lean in favor of the Democrats and sometimes in favor of the Republicans.

He said that the competition in states such as Michigan, Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin is very close in terms of approval ratings, making these elections very competitive.

Regarding the issues that concern the American voter, Abdel Qader pointed out that the economy and inflation are among the main factors that influence voters’ decisions, noting that current indicators show that the American economy under the Biden and Harris administration is doing well, with low inflation rates compared to the Trump era.

He also pointed out that the immigration issue is receiving great attention from Trump, while Harris has begun to confront him on this file.

Abdel Qader also touched on the impact of foreign policy issues, such as the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, explaining that both Harris and Trump support Israel in these conflicts, but Trump takes a more moderate position on Ukraine, showing support for Russian President Putin and expressing his displeasure with Ukrainian President Zelensky, who he sees as exploiting the American economy.

Abdel Qader stressed that the issues of abortion and health insurance are a major part of the election campaigns, as Harris' support for abortion freedom is one of the factors that attract women to vote for her, while Trump seeks to impose strict restrictions on this freedom.

He pointed out that Trump has appointed three conservative justices to the Supreme Court during his presidency, which has affected abortion rights in the United States.

Abdul Qader stressed that Arabs and Muslims in the United States, especially in Michigan, could have a significant impact on the results of these elections, noting that their vote for Harris could boost her chances of winning, and if they abstain from voting, it could enable Trump to return to the White House.

Foreign Policy and Arab Vote Could Decide Race

Political expert Dr. Abdul Wahab Al-Qassab, a visiting fellow at the Arab Center in Washington, believes that the race between the Republican and Democratic parties is intense, while internal and external issues play a major role in determining the course of the vote.

He said: The main issues raised, such as: the economy, immigration, health care, the issue of abortion and foreign policy, are pivotal elements in the voters’ orientations, while the votes of Arabs and Muslims are expected to be decisive in determining the final result.

Biden's Performance and Harris' Challenges

According to Qassab, current President Joe Biden is facing a decline in his popularity as a result of his poor performance in his debates with former President Donald Trump, and this decline has weakened the position of the Democratic Party, which has put candidate Kamala Harris in the face of a major challenge to attract voters, especially from ethnic minorities, women, and youth.

Al-Qassab adds: Biden's strong support for Israel during the recent aggression on Gaza, and the accompanying military and diplomatic protection for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has negatively affected the Arab and Muslim voter base in the United States. This excessive support for Israel has prompted many Arab and Muslim voters to reconsider their usual support for the Democrats, which weakens Harris's chances of maintaining this voting bloc.

Trump faces security and economic issues

Al-Qassab believes that Donald Trump is basing his campaign on issues such as: internal security, immigration, rebuilding the American economy, and social policies. Trump is exploiting the weaknesses of the Biden administration, especially in foreign policy, and holds Biden and the Democrats responsible for the economic slowdown, inflation, and high prices that the American citizen suffers from. He also criticizes the support provided to Ukraine and accuses the administration of failing to promote stability.

Trump has a lead in the polls in crucial states like Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, while the race remains tight in other swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which could be crucial in determining the winner of the election.

The 2024 US election will be more competitive

Al-Qassab points out that the abstention of Arab and Muslim voters from voting for the Democratic Party, due to Biden’s policies towards Gaza and Israel, may give Trump a great opportunity to return to the White House. Even if these voters do not vote for Trump directly, their absence from the Democrats could be a decisive factor in tipping the balance in the Republicans’ favor in swing states.

Al-Qassab concluded by saying: In light of the fierce competition between the two parties, and the political fluctuations witnessed in the American arena, the 2024 American elections will be one of the most competitive elections, noting that internal and external issues, in addition to the voting trends of Arabs and Muslims, may be the decisive factor in determining who will enter the White House as the new president of the United States.

US election results are complicated

In turn, Dr. Amani Al-Qarm, a writer and researcher in American affairs, considered that predicting the results of the upcoming American elections is a complex matter, even with opinion polls indicating the progress of one of the candidates.

There are two main factors contributing to this uncertainty, she says. The first is rooted in the history of American democracy: the complexities of the American electoral system. American voters do not choose their president directly, but rather through an electoral college, made up of party delegates elected by the people of each American state, who in turn meet to elect the president.

She pointed out that the number of delegates for each state is equal to the number of its representatives in Congress. The number of delegates in the Electoral College is 538, distributed according to the population size of the states, and the winner must obtain 270 votes.

Al-Qarm pointed out that the candidate who wins the number of votes in a state gets all of that state’s votes in the electoral college, and the loser does not get any votes from that state even if the difference between them is one vote, based on an American rule that says the winner takes everything (winner-take-all). For example: if Harris wins in a state like California by ten votes over Donald Trump, she gets all of the votes of California’s delegates in the electoral college, which number 55 votes, and in return Trump gets nothing.

The writer Al-Qarm confirmed that American history has a fair number of such cases with a slim margin of victory, the most prominent of which recently: Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 elections, and George W. Bush’s victory over Al Gore in the 2000 elections. In the latter, the issue between the two required long weeks of legal arguments and a recount of votes in Florida, until the issue was settled by the Supreme Court, which determined who the president was.

The second factor is related to both candidates, their personalities and their ability to attract voters, as well as the surrounding and related circumstances.

Biden Administration Restrictions

Al-Qurm said: For Kamala Harris, it is not easy as a vice president to get rid of the restrictions of the Biden administration and what this administration did or did not do. As a vice president, she participated in all the internal and external decisions made in the Biden administration. Therefore, we find her throughout the electoral competition trying to show that she is not an extension of Biden, but she has her own style and issues that she focuses on. She tried to present herself as a middle-class girl who expresses a new generation of leadership, while her competitor is Donald Trump, an experienced personality in the media and the camera, who is very clear in expressing his choices and policies without restrictions controlling him.

Al-Qarm considered that the events of Congress in 2020, following his incitement of his supporters after his defeat in the elections, are a restriction and a black spot in his political history, while the attempt to assassinate him made him an icon in the eyes of his supporters.

She explained: However, recent opinion polls have shown a close race between the two, even in states that are said to be swing states, meaning that they are not decided in favor of either party.

She stressed that there are many factors that play a role in the American voter's choice of the next president, who is concerned with his domestic issues, but we cannot ignore that the Gaza war has become one of the electoral issues, especially among progressives, Arabs, some minorities, and undoubtedly the Jews as well.

Al-Qarm said: We are facing a victory that is not easy for any of the candidates, especially if Trump is the defeated person, but if I could predict intuitively, I could say that the presidency awaits Kamala Harris with great difficulty.

The world stands on the brink of a regional war

For his part, lawyer Moein Odeh, who specializes in American affairs, stressed that the 2024 US presidential elections are not just internal elections that concern the United States only, but rather carry pivotal importance on a global level.

Awda explained that the world stands on the brink of a regional war in the Middle East and a third world war, as tensions are increasing between the United States and its allies on the one hand, and their opponents on the other.

Awda pointed out that the next US president will play a decisive role in determining the future of this tension, whether by easing it and returning it to a state of "cold war" or escalating it towards a comprehensive confrontation.

He explained that the American elections are not decided by the popular vote, but by the "Electoral College", where the competition is focused on a small group of swing states that may be the difference in determining the winner.

He pointed out that the possibility of winning or losing is not clear to anyone, and no one can decide, and there is talk of a very close convergence between the two parties, especially in the swing states, so it is appropriate to speculate who will win.

He pointed out that these states may be the difference between the Democrats and the Republicans, as the fate of the elections may depend on a few thousand votes, as happened in previous elections such as the elections of Bush and Al Gore.

Awda also added that the final results of the election may not be announced on the night of November 4, and it may take weeks to determine the winner, with the possibility of unrest or violence from Trump supporters if he refuses to concede defeat again.

Awda stressed that the next US administration will have a major impact on the world, as it may drag the world into a third world war or return it to a state of cold war that existed between countries.

Limited impact on the Middle East

American affairs expert Daoud Kitab said: The US presidential elections reflect multiple conflicts, most notably the conflict between ethnic groups in the United States, as the elections turned into a confrontation between whites and non-whites, including blacks and immigrants, as well as between the male candidate and the female candidate.

He added: The danger lies in the fact that the conflict is no longer confined to internal issues only, but extends to the basic concepts of democracy.

The book explained that one of the candidates (Harris) advocates democracy and proposes including members of the other party in her government, while the other candidate insists on imposing policies that strengthen authoritarian rule and aim to punish political opponents among citizens.

He also pointed out that the elections reflect a clear division between urban residents who tend to support Democrats and rural residents who tend to support Republicans, in addition to the large gap between middle-class support and the support that candidates receive from the wealthy.

As for the impact of the elections on the Middle East, and specifically the Palestinian issue, the book stated that American policies towards the region will not witness fundamental changes.

He explained that during his presidency, Trump made prominent decisions such as cutting funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, and announcing the “Deal of the Century.”

The book continued: Kamala Harris' policies will not differ much from those of current President Joe Biden, which are to provide military support to Israel and repeat the Israeli narrative, including allegations about the October 7 events related to Hamas, which were later refuted.