The contradictions that characterize US President Donald Trump's policy no longer cause surprise, but the recent retreat in the confrontation with Iran revealed the extent of the confusion in the White House. Just a few days after the announcement of what was called the 'Freedom Project' in the Strait of Hormuz and the mobilization of a huge military arsenal, Trump was forced to retreat under the weight of field realities and international rejection of engaging in an adventure with uncertain outcomes.
Field sources confirmed the falsity of American claims regarding securing the passage of commercial ships under the protection of destroyers; facts proved that Tehran imposed its own navigation rules. This military field failure pushed the American administration to seek a political exit that would save face, which was evident in leaks about a comprehensive de-escalation agreement brokered by Pakistan.
The leaked agreement, consisting of 14 points, appears closer to the Iranian vision, which stipulates a complete cessation of war and lifting of the blockade before entering into detailed negotiations. Tehran insists on rejecting zero enrichment or handing over its enriched uranium stockpile, while showing flexibility in transferring it to a third country such as Russia to ensure the continuity of its peaceful program.
On the internal Iranian front, the regime showed unexpected cohesion after the departure of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei taking the reins firmly. Mojtaba shows great harmony with the Revolutionary Guard commanders, which foiled American bets on an internal collapse or a change in the structure of the political system.
American material and human losses were a decisive factor in curbing the escalation, as media reports revealed damage to 16 American bases in the region. Despite attempts by the US Secretary of Defense to downplay the costs, independent press estimates confirmed that the bill exceeded $50 billion, which created enormous political pressure within Washington.
The Russian and Chinese roles emerged as an international bulwark against American ambitions, not only through the use of the veto in the Security Council, but also through technical and intelligence support. This strategic cooperation contributed to strengthening Iranian air defense capabilities and developing the accuracy of missile strikes that targeted sensitive sites belonging to the occupation and the American administration.
In the diplomatic track, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi succeeded in building an international front supporting his country's position through tours that included Muscat, Moscow, and Beijing. These moves confirmed that Tehran is not internationally isolated, and that major powers reject the policy of force that Washington is trying to impose outside the framework of international law.
As for the Lebanese front, the Resistance imposed new deterrence equations using fiber optic drone technology that confused the calculations of the occupation army. This field development made the idea of separating arenas or isolating Lebanon far-fetched, despite persistent American attempts to drag Beirut towards suspicious normalization agreements.
The American plan to involve the Lebanese army in an internal conflict or confrontation with the Resistance faced popular and political awareness that prevented the country from sliding into civil war. Opinion polls indicate widespread Lebanese rejection of any normalization path, emphasizing the priority of protecting national sovereignty in the face of Israeli expansionist ambitions.
In conclusion, the regional scene shows that the balance of power has shifted in favor of the parties that showed strategic steadfastness in the face of threats. Trump's retreat from his project in Hormuz is not just a political maneuver, but an implicit acknowledgment of the end of an era of unilateral hegemony and the ability to impose will by mere military force.
Iran succeeded in shattering Trump's excessive narcissism, making his talk of absolute victory ridiculous in light of the field realities.
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The Breaking of American Bets: How Did Trump Retreat Before Iranian Steadfastness in the Strait of Hormuz?