The Russian position on Israel's war on Gaza...goals and challenges

By Sara Sharif

When Hamas launched its lightning attack, the “Al-Aqsa Flood,” on October 7, some were quick to suspect that the “Moscow-Tehran” axis was behind it. In the following weeks, Iran was the center of accusation by Israel and the West. But in recent days, Russia has reappeared on the political scene.

What is Russia's position on the war on Gaza? What role are you trying to play? What are its goals?

Russian appearance in the war

The first Russian appearance, in a way that carries implications in the Gaza War, was when a Hamas delegation, headed by the movement’s international relations official, Musa Abu Marzouk, met with representatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Although the delegation did not meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, or Kremlin officials, it gave indications that something was moving behind closed doors, and that the Gaza war was having an impact on the region, especially since Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani visited Moscow and met his counterpart. The Russian, before the latter met with the Hamas delegation. At that time, they claimed that the meeting was to discuss bilateral cooperation on unspecified international security issues.

Hamas' statement praised the efforts of Putin and the Russian Foreign Ministry to end what the movement called "Israel's crimes supported by the West." However, the official Russian news agency TASS reported that the discussion focused on the release of foreign hostages from Gaza, in addition to the evacuation of Russian and foreign citizens from the Strip.

On October 14, the Russian embassy said that 16 Russian citizens were killed as a result of the Hamas attack on Israel, while eight others are still missing. According to TASS, at least one Russian-Israeli citizen is being held in Gaza.

The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in a statement, condemned the meeting and said: “Israel considers the invitation of senior Hamas officials taken by Moscow to be an obscene step that supports terrorism and legitimizes the atrocities committed by Hamas terrorists. We call on the Russian government to expel Hamas terrorists immediately.”

Moscow has a relationship with all parties, including Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Hamas, and Iran, which qualifies it to play a vital role. But the truth is that this advantage puts Russia in a complex position, between preserving its interests and achieving its goals, and balancing between parties that are linked by mutual hostility. What is Russia's position on the war on Gaza? What role are you trying to play? What are its goals?

According to Al-Monitor, the tense relations between Russia and Israel have become more tense following the riots that took place in Dagestan, southern Russia, on October 29, when hundreds of rioters stormed an airport to search for Israelis arriving on a flight from Tel Aviv. Israel condemned the incident and asked Moscow to protect Israeli citizens and Jews in Russia.

Russia defended its decision to host Hamas members in Moscow, saying it was important to maintain relations with both sides of the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

Meanwhile, Khaled Meshaal, the political leader of Hamas abroad, claimed in an interview with Russian television that Russia intends to use the attack of last October 7, against Israel, as educational material in its military academies. He added: “Russia benefited from our attack, because we distracted "The attention of the United States on it and on Ukraine." It was clear that both Hamas and Russia portrayed the meeting completely differently.

Moscow and the conflicting parties

Moscow has a relationship with all parties, including Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Hamas, and Iran, which qualifies it to play a vital role. But the truth is that this advantage puts Russia in a complex position, between preserving its interests and achieving its goals, and balancing between parties that are linked by mutual hostility.

Russia has an important relationship with Israel, which has developed over the past decades. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, while the West lined up against Moscow, Israel offered to act as a mediator and refused to send lethal weapons to Ukraine, according to Al-Monitor.

As for Russia's relationship with Hamas, over the years, some Russian-made weapons, such as anti-tank missiles and anti-aircraft missiles, have arrived in Gaza, via Iran. Moscow also maintains contact with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad movement, whose Secretary-General, Ziad al-Nakhalah, visited Moscow in February 2021.

As for the Palestinian Authority, it maintains friendly relations with Russia, and the President of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, visited Russia several times, most recently in late 2021.

Russia's position on the Gaza war

Although there are Western and Ukrainian accusations against Russia that it incited Hamas to attack last October 7, as the head of Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, Kirilo Budanov, said that Russia recently supplied Hamas with weapons without providing evidence of that, there is no evidence of involvement. Russia incited the attacks of last October 7, launched by Hamas, also according to Al-Monitor.

But the Hamas movement was able to circumvent Western sanctions by transferring millions through Russian cryptocurrency exchanges based in Moscow, and this was revealed by the American “Time” magazine.

In the same context, the American Carnegie Center states that allegations that Russia transferred weapons to Hamas are still unproven, but it has at the very least facilitated material support for the movement through cryptocurrencies.

As for the declared Russian position, Russia did not specifically condemn the Hamas attacks on October 7. Instead, Russian officials called on both sides to lay down their arms, and reaffirmed their support for the establishment of a Palestinian state. In the UN Security Council, a Russian resolution calling for a ceasefire and the release of all hostages was voted down, because it did not condemn Hamas.

In their speeches and public appearances, Russian officials have repeatedly criticized Israel's treatment of the Palestinians. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on October 28 that the Israeli bombing of Gaza contravenes international law. Putin likened the siege imposed by Israel on Gaza to Nazi Germany's siege of Leningrad during World War II, one of the most painful events in Russian history, during which hundreds of thousands of Russian civilians were killed.

What does Moscow want?

Moscow's movements towards all parties, and during the war, with the aim of achieving a set of goals that Russia seeks to achieve. As long as it concerns the Middle East, Russian goals will not be very ambiguous, the most prominent of which are:

Moscow sees its relationship with Hamas as part of a Middle East strategy aimed at strengthening its position in the Global South, an effort that has long included building relationships with both Israel and its enemies.

The first Russian goal: strengthening Russia’s position in the Middle East, while Moscow sees its relationship with Hamas as part of a Middle East strategy that aims to strengthen its position in the global South, an effort that has long included building relations with both Israel and its enemies, which was confirmed by a study of Carnegie Research Center.

The study added that some believe that Moscow's relationship with Hamas aims to try to sow chaos in the Middle East, but the truth is that Russia is afraid of the spread of terrorism from it, as terrorists have targeted Russia repeatedly over the years, and it has something to lose from chaos.

The second goal: is to attack the West, as Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to blame the West for the crisis in the Middle East. In a statement, Putin said that "the ruling elites in the United States" and "its followers" are behind the killing of Palestinians in Gaza, and are behind the conflicts in Ukraine, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. On October 10, Putin said that the war constituted a "clear example of the failure of American policy in the Middle East," according to Reuters.

The third goal: Russia is trying to play the role of peacemaker in the region, as it began trying to play a role in the United Nations, but without success, as the United Nations Security Council rejected a Russian draft resolution condemning violence against civilians, and also refused to pass the Russian resolution that called for an end to He launched the shooting on humanitarian grounds, condemned Hamas' attack on Israel, and attacks on civilians in Gaza.

China and Russia vetoed the resolution sponsored by the United States, while the United States and the United Kingdom vetoed the resolution sponsored by Russia.

Moscow's message to the Middle East is that the United States' hegemony over the region has resulted in disastrous results, especially the war between Israel and Hamas itself, and that Russia will be a much better mediator and diplomatic partner than any of the Western powers, which is the idea presented by a study by "The Conversation" Center. ".

The fourth goal: to divert attention from the war in Ukraine, and for the turmoil in the Middle East to divert Western support from Ukraine, making it easier for Russia to strengthen its regional control over parts of Ukraine. The Pentagon has reportedly decided to send tens of thousands of 155 mm artillery shells to Israel, which were originally planned to be sent to Ukraine, in addition to artillery munitions, as both Israel and Ukraine need many of the same weapons systems. So far, Pentagon officials insist that they will be able to support Ukraine and Israel at the same time. “We can do both, and we will do both,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said at a press conference held in Brussels on October 11, according to Time. But many analysts believe that if it comes to setting Washington's priorities, Israel will win.

As for the fifth goal, it is stopping the Israeli-Saudi normalization deal, which Washington has set as a goal in recent months. Thus, Moscow will achieve an additional victory, as it considers all regional diplomacy arising from the Abraham Accords to be an American project that marginalizes Russia.

The war also affected the American economic corridor that departs from India, due to the cessation of normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel. At the same time, this situation allows for the strengthening of the Chinese “Belt and Road” initiative. On October 17, Putin praised the “Belt and Road” initiative, saying that Russia “can play a fundamental role, as a transit country between the East and the West, the North and the South,” which reflects Russia’s seizing the opportunity of war and halting the American project to achieve economic gains.

Difficult challenges

Despite Russia's list of goals and the gains it can achieve from the Gaza war, there are a set of challenges it may face.

Despite Russia's list of goals and the gains it can achieve from the Gaza war, there are a set of challenges it may face. So what is it? Can she overcome it?

If Russia increases its support for Hamas, this will likely come at the expense of deteriorating relations with Israel, and this harms Russian policy that seeks to maintain balances in the Middle East, as Russia has wanted for years to gain Arab support, but without severing relations with Israel.

According to the Foreign Policy website, Russia does not want relations with Israel to deteriorate, and despite its declared common goal with Iran to challenge US sovereignty, Russia does not seek cooperation with Tehran either. Russian diplomacy under Putin has always tried - and is still trying - to balance the rival players in the Middle East, because this increases Russian gains. Navigating through small conflagrations, rather than a large regional war, while engaging with all sides, are the rules of the game that suit Moscow best.

On the other hand, Russia wants to maintain its military presence in Syria without sending more forces (because it allocates its forces to the Ukraine war), which would increase pressure on Russian forces if the war spreads to Syria and Lebanon, and Hezbollah and Iranian militias participate in it. Taking into account the US military and security reinforcements in the region, Moscow does not want to see Iran and Israel dragged into a large-scale war in which it gets involved during its war in Ukraine.

Russia will not be able to control all the cards. If the war expands, and in light of the great American support for Israel, it may become more involved in the region, and the new war in the Middle East will expand in the presence of the great powers.

Source: raseef22.net