A German reading of the ground attack on Gaza: very complex urban warfare scenarios and the fate of the rule of the Strip

It seems that Israel has completed its preparations and expanded its ground and air operations against Gaza, despite all the talk that there is international pressure to prevent a ground attack and hopes to free more hostages held by Hamas. However, politically, it seems that there is no clear post-war plan for the Strip, where most people live. Of two million people under extremely difficult circumstances and without any real prospects. The Israeli government is facing difficult decisions, including regarding the families of the prisoners who are demanding the release of their sons, and at the same time there are calls for revenge for what happened to Israel on October 7, 2023. What are the complications of urban warfare?

4 goals and a number of complications

Carlo Massala, professor of international politics at the German Army University in Munich, said in a recent interview with the ARD news network that the Israeli government, after announcing the military mobilization, set four goals for its ground invasion: First, to undermine Hamas and get rid of the extensive tunnel network to make it It is unable to fight militarily, thus making Israel always safe for the population, and paralyzing its capabilities that allow it to launch more attacks on Israel’s borders from the Gaza Strip, not to mention making every effort to release its prisoners.

As for political analyst Christian Wagner, in an interview with Bayerischer Rundfunk, he said that destroying Hamas should not only mean killing the movement’s leaders, but all of its members, and this is impossible and will only happen in the most difficult circumstances. As for its weapons arsenal, the defect lies in the fact that it is not clear the extent of the capabilities of the secret services of the Israeli occupation to discover potential targets, and that determining their locations is difficult in the absence of reconnaissance except by means of marches. All this amid fear that a number of Israeli prisoners may have been housed inside the underground metro in Gaza, which is a dilemma for the army, not to mention the fear of explosive traps and mines. The United States bringing its forces to the region heralds an increase in the intensity of the conflict, and this also exposes the American army to danger.

This logic was also confirmed by Masala, who considered that the Israeli army must maintain proportionality, in the presence of military difficulties that threaten its armed forces, because urban warfare is one of the most complex military operations ever, and because the lives of prisoners are of importance to the Israeli people, explaining that when The Israelis attack partial targets from the air. The problem they face is the difficulty of focusing on Hamas sites.

From another angle, security experts considered that the plans of the Israeli forces are not clear exactly and what a major attack on Gaza will look like. They may rely on deploying groups of pens supported by attacks from the air, and perhaps sending tanks and infantry units to penetrate the ground. In both cases, they are at risk of suffering losses. A huge loss in the number of soldiers, considering that eliminating Hamas cannot be realistic, especially since the movement had plenty of time to prepare for ground confrontations that could take weeks or even months. Comments said that a ground attack is the only means to restore strategic deterrence in the region, and anything less than that would be a victory for Hamas and Iran.

The future of Gaza

Political readings have shown that strategic questions are being raised behind closed doors, including the extent to which Israel is able to achieve its declared goals. That is, at what point can the Netanyahu government declare the success of the ground attack and end the operation? If Hamas is eliminated, who will rule Gaza, especially since Israel does not want to extend its authority over Gaza in these circumstances and has no ability to do so, which it occupied until 2005?

This scenario was ruled out by expert Masala because it is the worst solution ever and will only fuel the movement's activity again. In this context, the scenario of the Strip being managed by the United Nations was also proposed, but Robert Bleicher of the International Crisis Group saw this as unthinkable for the Israelis. As for the third scenario, which is based on the Palestine Liberation Organization taking over the mission from Ramallah, it is illogical because it has become politically weaker than ever before, as it has lost control of Gaza to Hamas since 2007, and is not very popular in the Strip. Regarding the fourth scenario, which requires that Gaza be subject to the administration of an international group with the participation of a number of European and Arab countries, and then hand it over to a civilian Palestinian administration, this is not easy to implement because Hamas has political influence that makes it able to maneuver by imposing such a solution on it without Obligations and guarantees towards the Gaza citizen.

In the face of all these arrangements that involve uncertainty and the difficulty of predicting the development of the situation in slaughtered Gaza, the fear remains that the battle will expand in the Middle East with Hezbollah intervening more forcefully in the war and opening the Lebanon front. This is what worries Europe and the United States, because the political solution For the sector after that, it will not be easy.

Director of the Institute for Peace and Security Policy Research at the University of Hamburg, Ursula Schröder, warned that the Western and global order had reached its end, and the escalation in the region could be the final nail in the coffin of human values, noting, according to what was reported by the newspaper “Die Welt”, that the population in All parts of the world are increasingly becoming victims of violent conflicts, and this is what is happening in Syria, Yemen, Azerbaijan and others, where about 238 thousand civilians died in 2022 as a result of hostilities.