The more enemies fight, and the longer the war continues between them, the more similar and identified they become with each other. War usually begins, and each of the combatants has its own strategy and approach that is different from the other. Usually, the parties' goals are high at the beginning of the war. But the actual experience in the theater of war, as well as action and reaction, requires adaptation from the tactical to the strategic level.

Because of this process, and the efforts of each party to adapt to the other’s plans, the process of what is called biology (Symbiosis) appears. The war begins from non-convergence, and progresses until it reaches the line of contact, which is called the “stalemate.” At this stage, mutual exhaustion begins, and the war stops, but only after everyone realizes that victory has become impossible, and that the cost of the war has become so great that it exceeds the profits that were expected.

The origin of the word “symbiosis” is from the Greek language, which means “living together.” Do wars mean “living together”? It is possible, but in a bloody way, and under the rules of engagement that change with changing circumstances and changing generations. Therefore, it can be said that most wars usually occur between geographically neighboring powers. Does the degree and intensity of friction increase the shorter the distances? Do war and its causes have a direct relationship to distance? What about virtual digital distances?

Today, there is an internecine war between Russia and Ukraine, which are close together in geography, history, culture and civilization. Today, battles are also taking place in Palestine due to geographical and demographic proximity, and competition and conflict over the same geographical area.

Awareness of geographical distance differs between great powers and ordinary powers in the world. The reason for this difference is that the great powers have the ability and means to be present in any geographical location. It has interests in all parts of the globe. Hence its political, economic and military presence, as events threaten its supreme interests.

Gaza events

Despite the Baptist Hospital massacre in Gaza, President Joe Biden has not canceled his visit to Israel. He seems determined to provide absolute support for Israel. He adopted the Israeli version of the cause of the hospital disaster, which blames it on a missile fired by the “Islamic Jihad” organization from an area adjacent to the hospital.

Biden had previously ordered the deployment of two aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean. This is in addition to the mobilization of 2,000 Marines, and the preparation of special forces units from the “Delta” or “Team Seal-6” squad, which are forces specialized in special operations to liberate hostages. At the same time, the Commander of the Central Region, General Michael Corella, is coordinating with the Israeli military leadership on how to control the military situation, so that it does not get out of control, and to work seriously to activate deterrence, and even how to deal with it if all fronts are opened.

In return, Iran threatens a pre-emptive response. It warns of the war expanding to include the entire region. The Lebanese front has also heated up to an unusual degree since 2006, but without reaching the point of war, at least not yet. Groups linked to Iran also appear to be launching attacks on American sites in Iraq and Syria, as part of a warning to the United States against continuing to support Israel in its current war against Gaza. Thus, the management of the war has moved from the hands of local players, that is, from the strategic level, to the higher-ranking geopolitical level.

South Lebanon

Hezbollah is heating up the Lebanese front, in parallel with heating up the Gaza front. Thus, the rules of engagement have become variable and fluid, in a way that it can be said that there are no rules of engagement currently in place. What is the current state of the northern front?

* Bombing and counter-bombing by both teams. Evacuating the population from the Israeli side at a depth of 2 km inside occupied Palestine, in anticipation of any ground operation by Hezbollah.

* Israel also seeks to create a buffer zone inside Lebanese territory approximately 5 km deep, but with firepower. There is no massive Lebanese exodus from deep within the Lebanese front.

What if the Israeli ground operation begins in Gaza? Will he go to open the Lebanon front? If the front opens, how will President Biden implement his promise? What will the image of the front be like compared to the July 2006 war?

Talking about Israel fighting on two fronts is not correct now. It did not actually fight on two fronts except in the October War of 1973, on the Golan and Sinai at the same time. In the Six-Day War, Israel adopted the following principle: stabilizing one front, which is the Golan, and focusing the main effort on another front, which is the Sinai. After completing the Sinai front, Israel moved to fight on the Syrian front.

Current field facts indicate the following:

* Israel deployed most of its reserve forces on the Lebanese front. These forces were supported by armored forces, but of the third generation.

* But it deployed the most important armored forces (with the latest tanks), capable of maneuvering and striking, on the Gaza fronts in the north and east.

* Israel is preparing the ground for a ground operation that may be similar to the 2009 operation (Cast Lead), through heavy bombardment of the axes of the expected attack, which are divided into five axes as follows: from the north, through Beit Lahia and the Erez crossing. From the east, through Jabalia and Gaza City. From the far south, through the Rafah crossing.

*As for the southern Lebanese front, it will be as follows:

1. - No ground operation similar to the July 2006 war. This makes Hezbollah lose the advantage of territory and its awareness of the place.
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3. - Accommodating Hezbollah’s bombing by responding in kind not only to its centers but also to all of Lebanon.
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5. - Disturbing everything in the area of operations to deprive Hezbollah of using drones.
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7. - Preventing the party from carrying out a ground operation, which would be preferred, after emptying the area of residents, and preparing in advance for the worst scenario, especially since the factor of surprise was in Gaza and not on the Lebanese front.
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9. - But the greatest uncertainty remains about how the American forces (aircraft carriers) will behave if the Lebanese front is opened. Will it be limited to intelligence support, electronic warfare, and providing ammunition, or will there be direct intervention? In the event of direct American intervention, how will Iran respond?

Source: Al Sharq Al awsat