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ECONOMY

Wed 15 Mar 2023 9:33 pm - Jerusalem Time

A US recession looms as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates

WASHINGTON -- (Xinhua) -- The specter of a recession in the United States looms large as the Federal Reserve continues its campaign of raising interest rates.


On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by three-quarters of a point for the fourth time in a row amid the worst inflation in 40 years.


Although job opportunities are available and unemployment is low, economists expect the possibility of a recession in the coming year, especially if the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates at such an aggressive pace.


A report on job glut published on Friday underscores the problem. The strong job growth figures "increase the chances that next year the US will experience a hard economic downturn in the form of a bad recession," Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told Xinhua.


This is because as job growth increases, the Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates, in an effort to slow inflation, and along with that, the economy as a whole.


Lashman stated that the Fed will continue to do so even as cracks appear in the US and global financial system, and even when the US real estate market appears to have already entered a recession.


"To bring inflation down, the Fed will have to somehow raise wages at a slower pace than they are now which probably means the US will have to go into recession," Lachman said.


To be sure, higher interest rates would hit consumers' wallets in one way or another, such as by making it more expensive for Americans to pay off debt or get a mortgage.


But despite several interest rate increases, inflation continues to rise, suggesting that there is a long way to go before prices stabilize and the US sees 2 percent inflation as acceptable.


In fact, the current inflation rate continues to climb above this benchmark.


The widely watched consumer price index showed inflation in September fell slightly to 8.2 percent year-on-year, but rose 0.4 percent month-on-month.


At the same time, lawmakers are increasingly calling for the Federal Reserve to halt interest rate increases, as critics worry they could trigger a recession. Critics point out that while prices are high, at least there are jobs.


Economists wonder what will happen in a scenario where there are much fewer jobs and prices have not yet fallen to acceptable levels? This is a recipe for "stagflation," or a stagnant economy with high inflation.


The Fed gave no indication that it would change course.


Both inflation and fears of a recession have hit the US stock market hard in recent months, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 4,000 points year-to-date.


Investors continue to shy away from the stock market. While there have been moments of recovery, markets remain volatile.

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A US recession looms as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates

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