OPEC.. Riyadh's step and results calculations!

Written by: Akram Atallah

The area of war is expanding more, and it exceeds in its extension all previous battles, whether in terms of geography and its influence reaching every home in the world, or in the weapons that enter the battle, most notably the oil and gas weapon, which has turned into one of the most prominent field weapons between the parties to the conflict in a war of attrition. It has become clear that its parties decided to go far Part of it considers it an opportunity to drain Russia militarily in the Ukrainian field and break its growing strength, and from there to China, while Russia considers it an opportunity to break its opponents, each of whom has its own weapons, regardless of the size of the losses and victims.

The decision of “ OPEC Plus” to reduce the daily production ceiling of oil by two million barrels per day was a surprise to the United States and allies in Europe, and it comes at the most difficult moment as it manages its battle against Russia, especially since the decision came after the European Union sought to impose a ceiling on the price of Russian oil in the framework of using The tools it possesses to weaken Russia, with the aim of depriving it of financing the military effort in Ukraine.

Russia's response to that approach, through its Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, was that if Western countries decided to implement this step, Russian companies would not send oil supplies to countries that adopt this ceiling. And at the gates of winter, oil supplies become as important as the supplies of military lines on the battlefield if those lines are cut off.

Certainly, the decision of «OPEC Plus» is in the interest of Russia and directly in the service of the Russian military effort, which began to falter clearly in the past months and weeks in the Ukrainian lands, and to withdraw from the areas it had controlled. Russia's recent threat to use nuclear weapons is an expression of this stumbling block and an expression of a state of weakness. If it were otherwise, Russia would not have gone in its threat towards the last weapon without gradualism.

The White House, which is very disappointed and angry with OPEC's decision, ordered the withdrawal of ten million barrels from the US reserves. And this is not the first time in this war, as a month after its start, Biden ordered the withdrawal of one million barrels for a period of six months. It is now clear that more pressure is being put on the Biden administration, especially after the remarkable stability of the US economy emerged in the crisis and the rise of the dollar amid the decline of the rest of the European currencies.

In anticipation of the crisis and for more pressure, Biden came in mid-July to Saudi Arabia on an ambiguous visit after his pledge not to meet its crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, who is accused of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi from Washington. State Department Anthony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jack Sullivan demanded an increase in oil production in order not to cause a shock in the global economy and to lower its price in order to punish Russia.

At that time, US President Biden did not take what he came for on his trip to Riyadh, and there was some timid, non-conclusive response and hesitation that the production capacity is less than what the United States requires, especially since the Gulf wanted to distance itself from the war alignments and its repercussions, and Saudi Arabia’s fear of appearing to weaken Russia and fear Infuriating and fearing the reaction, it supported the Houthis with weapons that break the balance, as it was careful not to appear to be supporting one party against the other.

But the most important thing is that Saudi Arabia, which is distinguished by its relations with the Republicans and witnessed its best conditions in the Trump era, is not eager to help Biden and the Democrats, and the last thing it wants is for him to win a second term, especially since the polls were not then going in favor of the occupant of the White House and his party with Trump’s statements of his intention to announce his return To run in the elections that will take place in two years.

It is true that Russia wants to reduce OPEC production and increase its financial imports, but what is remarkable here is the Saudi and Arab decision that goes far in defiance of the democratic administration in this battle that began its vow since the beginning of the war not to respond to the American desire and reached its climax three months ago during Biden’s visit to the region, which is what It means that the United States, which expressed its anger, will have expressions for this position, and it will put Riyadh in the face of Washington.

This decision came a month before the congressional midterm elections that take place every two years, and Saudi Arabia hopes for the victory of the Republicans and curbing the democratic administration, leading to the stripping of the Democratic Party from the presidency, and this is a common denominator for Riyadh and Moscow, as the latter was accused six years ago of manipulating the US elections and contributing to the victory of Donald. Trump and bring down Hillary Clinton.

This direct challenge at a sensitive American moment and in favor of Moscow is considered a great adventure for Riyadh. If the Democrats are re-elected once again and the war ends, it will face a difficult situation. But if the Republicans were to advance, then this will be counted for Saudi Arabia, and then it will have become an influential player in the American interior, which means that the upcoming renewal elections on the eighth of November will determine the results of that Saudi adventure that has placed itself in the middle of this battle. No one knows whether the steps were calculated or not, but it is not an easy step. It is true that it is in the service of the Saudi interest, as increasing oil revenues for a country opens the doors for the implementation of huge projects, but it puts it in a different battle if the Democratic Party wins. But all of this comes amid climates of increasing weakness of US control in light of global circumstances in which the balance of power shifts, new alliances emerge, and others escalate.
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