Dr. Jamal Harfoush: Netanyahu is evasive to gain time to arrange his priorities and benefit from international pressure to frame the deal in a way that serves his agenda

Fayez Abbas: The current Israeli position makes reaching a swap deal almost impossible at the present time

Muhammad Abu Allan Daraghmeh: Netanyahu's repeated statements regarding his withdrawal from completing the deal are part of the psychological warfare

Nizar Nazzal: Netanyahu focuses on small details to postpone big decisions as a means of procrastination and giving him more time

Yasser Manna: The Israeli opposition suffers from clear weakness and impotence and lacks a coherent vision or program that counters Netanyahu’s policies

Negotiations over a prisoner exchange deal between Israel and the Palestinian resistance are witnessing increasing complications, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to adopt a policy of procrastination and evasion, which Netanyahu has mastered for more than a year, coinciding with his commission of war crimes in the Gaza Strip.

These days, negotiating delegations are conducting shuttle tours in an attempt to make progress towards concluding the deal. Despite all that has been said about these negotiations, statements that may be described as positive, on the ground, procrastination remains present, and with it the suffering of the Palestinians increases.

In separate interviews with “Y,” writers, analysts, and specialists believe that this policy practiced by Netanyahu is not just a random delay, but rather a deliberate strategy aimed at strengthening his authority internally and achieving diplomatic and security gains that serve his agenda.

They believe that Netanyahu is seeking through this procrastination to exhaust the Palestinian resistance, exploiting international pressure to arrange Israel’s priorities in line with its interests. At the same time, he is working to enhance his popularity among his supporters and maintain the cohesion of his right-wing government, while not exploiting the absence of an Israeli opposition that would prevent this policy, and is trying to delay concluding a partial deal that he wants in order to continue his policy.

They stress that Netanyahu's continued procrastination regarding concluding the deal increases the complexity of the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip, which has been ongoing for about 15 months, in light of the international inability to stop Netanyahu from the daily crimes he commits in the Strip.

A political and security strategy aimed at achieving internal and external gains.

Professor Dr. Jamal Harfoush, Professor of Scientific Research Methods and Political Studies at the University of the Academic Research Center in Brazil, confirms that Benjamin Netanyahu’s evasions regarding concluding a deal in the Gaza Strip are nothing but a political and security strategy aimed at achieving internal and external gains at the expense of realistic solutions.

Harfoush explains that Netanyahu seeks to enhance his popularity with the Israeli right and maintain the cohesion of his fragile government coalition by exploiting the deal as a card to emphasize his strength in the face of the Palestinian resistance.

He points out that Netanyahu is trying to exhaust the Palestinian resistance by prolonging the negotiations, believing that this may lead to reducing its demands.

Harfoush explains that Netanyahu is managing this file carefully to avoid angering the Israeli street, especially the families of the detainees, who are demanding urgent solutions, which makes him maneuver without committing to a radical solution.

Harfoush asserts that the maneuvers allow Netanyahu to gain time to arrange Israel's diplomatic priorities and benefit from international pressure to frame the deal in a way that serves the Israeli agenda.

Harfoush believes that Netanyahu’s talk about “obstacles that require a political decision” means that the pending issues go beyond technical or procedural details, and require courage and political will to overcome pressures and obstacles. Obstacles arise when solutions require political concessions that may weaken the position of the party making the decision.

Harfoush points out that the political decision here is the key to overcoming internal divisions or external pressures, and reflects the extent of the leadership’s ability to reconcile national interests and potential losses. Moreover, decision-making requires accepting its consequences at the local and international levels, which highlights the importance of political courage.

On the other hand, Harfoush asserts that Netanyahu's actions reveal a deliberate management of crises to achieve personal political gains, regardless of the humanitarian conditions in Gaza.

Harfoush believes that creating crises reflects an internal political division that Netanyahu is using to strengthen his hold on power, despite opposition objections. These crises give him room to maneuver between the demands of the street and the pressures of his allies.

Harfoush points out that the continuation of these crises deepens human suffering, as it leads to the disruption of any steps towards easing the siege or improving living conditions, while this behavior obstructs any attempts at international mediation, which reinforces the state of political stagnation.

Harfoush believes that Netanyahu is using crises as a means to prolong the status quo, realizing that any breakthrough could give the Palestinian resistance a political or moral victory, which he seeks to avoid at all costs.

In addition, Harfoush explains that there are repercussions of the political maneuverings on this file, which cast a shadow over the Israeli detainees in Gaza, as the continued detention weakens the confidence of their families in the Israeli government, increases popular pressure on the leadership, creates a state of frustration among Israeli soldiers, and affects the morale of the army.

As for the Palestinian prisoners, Harfoush explains that delaying the deal deepens the suffering of the prisoners and their families, but it strengthens their steadfastness as symbols of the Palestinian struggle, and pushes the Palestinian resistance to intensify qualitative operations, especially attempts to capture them, which leads to a field escalation.

He stresses that the continued stalemate exacerbates the suffering of the people in Gaza and the West Bank, and increases the complexity of the conflict, and that any delay in concluding the deal shows the political inability of both parties to find sustainable solutions, which reinforces the idea that the conflict is the permanent tool for imposing conditions.

Harfoush explains that managing this file requires courageous decisions and positions that go beyond narrow political calculations, as the fate of Israeli detainees and Palestinian prisoners remains a symbol of the conflict and a bridge towards achieving justice if it is dealt with wisely and responsibly.

Netanyahu seeks to avoid any deal that leads to a ceasefire

Israeli affairs expert Fayez Abbas believes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking to avoid any deal that would lead to a ceasefire or an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.

Abbas points out that Netanyahu does not explicitly declare this position for fear of the reactions of the families of the detainees and the Israeli society, which demands their return at any price. However, he realizes that his partners in the government, such as Itamar Ben-Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich and Orit Struck, may bring down his government if he concludes a deal that obligates Israel to withdraw from the Strip. Therefore, he considers his survival in power to be his main priority, not the lives of the detainees.

He explains that the obstacles that hinder reaching a deal require political decisions, not security or military ones. Among these obstacles are the issue of withdrawal from strategic axes such as the Philadelphi and Netzarim axes, in addition to Israel’s refusal to release prisoners sentenced to long terms, most notably Marwan Barghouti. These issues are considered “red lines” by the current Israeli government, which complicates the negotiations and thwarts any significant progress.

Despite media talk about possible progress in the negotiations, Abbas points out that the reality is devoid of any real breakthrough, as the administration of US President Joe Biden is trying to promote alleged progress in the negotiations, indicating that the deal may be completed within weeks or very soon, but Abbas confirms that these statements have not translated into tangible steps due to the stubborn Israeli position.

Abbas points out that recently, the head of US intelligence visited Doha in an attempt to accelerate negotiations, but left after one day after becoming convinced that a deal was not possible in light of the current Israeli position. Despite this, the Biden administration insists that Hamas’s leadership is the main obstacle to reaching a deal, which shows the difference in visions between the two parties.

Abbas points out that the conditions of the Israeli detainees in Gaza are getting worse, especially in light of the harsh conditions the Strip is experiencing, as many of the detainees are elderly or were injured during their captivity, which makes it difficult to preserve their lives in the tunnels, especially with the onset of winter, and this situation puts additional pressure on the Israeli side to expedite reaching a solution.

Abbas stresses that at the same time, the Netanyahu and Ben Gvir government continues to abuse Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons.

He explains that Palestinian prisoners suffer from catastrophic humanitarian conditions, including lack of food and health care, overcrowding in cells, and humiliating daily searches. Since October 7, this suffering has escalated significantly, as more than 35 prisoners have been killed as a result of repressive Israeli policies.

Abbas stresses that the current Israeli position makes reaching a swap deal almost impossible at the present time.

Abbas points out that despite international mediation efforts and internal pressures, the priority of Netanyahu's government remains maintaining power, even if it is at the expense of the lives of Israeli detainees or the suffering of Palestinian prisoners.

Netanyahu's positions are not just political maneuvering

Writer and expert on Israeli affairs, Muhammad Abu Allan Daraghmeh, believes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s positions on the prisoner exchange deal are not merely political maneuvers, but rather reflect a clear strategy based on continuing the war in the Gaza Strip and rejecting any deal that leads to a ceasefire or a comprehensive Israeli withdrawal from the Strip.

According to Daraghmeh, Netanyahu is seeking to achieve a partial exchange deal that would release a limited number of Israeli detainees, which would guarantee the continued presence of the occupation forces inside Gaza, and allow him to continue the war indefinitely.

Draghmeh believes that this policy comes within the framework of Netanyahu's declared goal since the beginning of the war, which is to control Gaza for a long period.

Draghmeh refers to international and Israeli reports that indicated that the occupation army is working to build a military infrastructure inside the Strip, which confirms Israel's intention to remain for a long time.

Draghmeh believes that Netanyahu does not hide his policy, but rather expresses it using different names that aim to mislead local and international public opinion.

Regarding the ongoing negotiations on a prisoner exchange deal, Draghmeh points out that the obstacles facing this process relate to the powers of the Israeli negotiating delegation, which moves within narrow limits.

Draghmeh points out that when developments arise that go beyond the delegation’s powers, it is obligated to return to the political level to make the necessary decisions. This explains the recent return of the Israeli delegation from Doha, where the goal was to conduct more internal consultations. This dynamic reflects the political constraints imposed by Netanyahu’s government on any progress in the negotiations.

Draghmeh asserts that Netanyahu does not pay any attention to the positions of the opposition within the Knesset or to the popular pressures in the Israeli street, thanks to his parliamentary majority of 68 members of the Knesset, and he is able to implement his policies without any significant obstacles.

As for the media talk about possible progress in the negotiations, Draghmeh considers it part of the propaganda game of negotiations, where unreliable leaks are circulated about achieving progress, but it is difficult to determine the extent of the veracity of these claims.

Draghmeh describes the situation in the Gaza Strip as catastrophic, as the people have reached a stage where it is difficult to bear the current conditions, and thus delaying the deal means more suffering.

Draghmeh believes that Netanyahu's repeated statements about his withdrawal from completing the deal and not moving forward with it come within the framework of the psychological war he is waging against the people of Gaza.

According to Draghmeh, these statements initially raise hopes for the possibility of ending the war, but they quickly turn into disappointment that exacerbates the suffering of the people of Gaza who live under the burden of continuous bombing and daily genocide.

On the other hand, Draghmeh explains that the Palestinian prisoners are awaiting the exchange deal that may lead to the release of a large number of them or at least improve their detention conditions. At the same time, the Israeli detainees in Gaza are living in difficult conditions similar to those facing the residents of the Strip, as fears for their lives are increasing due to the ongoing military operations and Israeli bombardment. Some of the detainees have also been injured during these attacks, which exacerbates their suffering.

Draghmeh points out that the Israeli war in Gaza does not only aim to achieve military goals, but also carries catastrophic humanitarian dimensions, as the policy of genocide against the people of the Strip is evident.

Draghmeh asserts that this war, which Netanyahu is waging without regard to the number of martyrs or wounded, is leaving devastating effects on Palestinian civilians who have become prisoners of a slim hope of stopping the war and ending the suffering.

Draghmeh points out that Netanyahu's policy expresses a long-term vision to control Gaza, with complete disregard for the humanitarian suffering in the Strip. In light of the ongoing political obstacles and the intransigence of the Israeli government, the horizon of reaching a comprehensive exchange deal remains elusive, which deepens the difficult suffering of the people of the Gaza Strip that has continued for 15 months.

Netanyahu seeks to avoid making any major concessions at this stage

Researcher Nizar Nazzal confirms that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is adopting a policy of evasion and buying time to achieve his strategic and personal goals.

Nazzal believes that Netanyahu is seeking to avoid making any major concessions at this stage, as he is working to postpone making crucial decisions until Donald Trump assumes the presidency of the United States on January 20.

Nazzal points out that Netanyahu is aware of the importance of not offering any political gift to the Democrats who are about to leave the White House. At the same time, he is seeking to offer a “political achievement” to Trump, who is a personal friend of Netanyahu’s and a strong ally of Israel. Therefore, any comprehensive ceasefire agreement is currently out of the question. Instead, Netanyahu is working to formulate a time-bound and conditional truce that will be implemented in conjunction with Trump’s entry into the White House.

Nazzal believes that this truce will be a “political tactic” that will allow Netanyahu to resume military operations later, citing arguments such as changes in Palestinian resistance tactics, as this aims to ensure the continuity of Israeli military pressure, while maintaining a political balance that serves his personal interests and his strategy with the United States.

Regarding the ongoing negotiations, Nazzal points out that Netanyahu is focusing on small details to postpone big decisions. As an example, in the talks on the Salah al-Din axis, Israel wants to withdraw from the border area between the Gaza Strip and Egypt to avoid violating the Camp David Accords. However, the nature of this withdrawal is still under discussion, as Israel seeks to maintain a limited military presence in some areas, such as Kerem Shalom and the Rafah crossing.

According to Nazzal, Netanyahu is also discussing the Netzarim axis, which has seen initial Israeli approval for withdrawal, but with conditions related to the installation of surveillance cameras supervised by an international body.

Nazzal believes that these conditions are being used as a means of procrastination, as the Israeli delegation is asking to return to Netanyahu for consultation before making any final decisions, which gives Netanyahu more time.

On the domestic front, Nazzal believes that Netanyahu has succeeded in fragmenting the Israeli opposition, which suffers from clear weakness and division.

Nazzal points out that despite the warnings of opposition leaders such as Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid, Netanyahu completely ignores them and even works against their directions. For example, Gantz refused to allow the Israeli army to enter Rafah, which Netanyahu considered an opportunity to further marginalize the opposition.

Nazzal asserts that Netanyahu is using the Israeli prisoners’ file as a pressure card to justify the continuation of the war and distort the image of the Palestinian people in the West. Despite the popular perception in Israel of Netanyahu’s lack of seriousness regarding the prisoners’ issue, the government continues to exploit this file to achieve internal and external political goals.

On the other hand, Nazzal points out that the release of Palestinian prisoners faces major obstacles due to the conditions created by Netanyahu.

Nazzal points out that in the first stage of any exchange deal, hundreds of prisoners with long sentences and life sentences may be released, but outside the Palestinian territories, which contradicts the demands of the resistance.

Nazzal believes that the internal Israeli political disputes have disastrous repercussions on the Palestinian people, as the Palestinians pay the price of blood and destruction as a result of Israeli political calculations.

Nazzal asserts that Palestinian blood has become a “bidding market” among the ruling elites in Israel, which deepens Palestinian pain and suffering as the conflict continues.

Nazzal points out that Netanyahu continues to use political and evasive tactics to achieve personal and strategic gains, while neglecting humanitarian issues such as prisoners. In contrast, the Palestinian resistance continues to face major challenges, in light of the ongoing killing and destruction and the absence of a real political horizon to end the conflict.

End the war and complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza

Writer and expert on Israeli affairs Yasser Manna believes that understanding the potential deal between the Palestinians and the Israelis requires understanding the different visions of both parties.

Manaa explains that the Palestinian vision focuses on ending the war with a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and ensuring reconstruction, a vision that seeks to achieve peace and stability.

Manna points out that, in contrast, Israel views the deal completely differently, seeing it as partial and humanitarian, to be implemented in stages that may be characterized by evasion.

Manna compares this vision to the approach of the Oslo Accords, which began as a temporary framework and was then extended through subsequent stages to achieve strategic gains.

Manaa points out that the current war presents Israel with a historic opportunity to achieve multiple strategic goals. On the domestic level, the Israeli right is strengthening its control by passing legal decisions that enable it to control the state’s joints. Israel is working to expand settlements and annex lands in the West Bank, in addition to reshaping the Gaza Strip demographically and geographically, in a way that serves its security and settlement interests.

Manaa asserts that Israel is exploiting the war as an opportunity to implement its plans, such as re-settling in the northern Gaza Strip and re-engineering the Strip in line with its strategic vision.

Manna points out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statements about the deal that “there are obstacles that require a political decision” raise fundamental questions, most notably: Is Israel prepared to end the war? Will it withdraw completely from Gaza? And who will run the Strip in the future? It seems that Israel seeks to run the Gaza Strip as it does the West Bank, by imposing security control and strategic positioning, which contradicts Palestinian demands.

Regarding the Israeli opposition, Manna points out that it suffers from clear weakness and impotence, as it lacks a coherent vision or a program that counters Netanyahu’s policies.

Manna explains that the Israeli opposition is not really an opposition in the traditional sense; on some issues, such as the aggression against Lebanon, it supports the continuation of military operations. As for the Gaza file, the opposition may support a prisoner exchange deal and will oppose a complete withdrawal, but it does not have an alternative vision for managing the war.

Manaa explains that Israel does not consider the Israeli prisoners in Gaza a top priority, as evidenced by its readiness to target sites where they are believed to be located.

Manna stresses that, on the other hand, the prisoners’ file is a top priority for the Palestinians, who seek to release the prisoners as part of any potential deal. However, Manna expects that Israel will place obstacles in the way of implementing any agreement related to the release of Palestinian prisoners.

Manna believes that the crises facing Israel are not the work of Netanyahu alone, but rather the result of the movements of decision-makers and the deep state in Israel. Despite Netanyahu's ability to overcome some crises, the challenges still exist.