Dr. Ghassan Al-Khatib: Israel will return to its aggression on the Gaza Strip, whether before or after the second stage, because it did not achieve a sufficient victory

Dr. Abdul Wahab Al-Qassab: The outcomes of Trump’s visit to Riyadh may be a decisive factor in determining his position on the crisis in the Gaza Strip

Mansour Abu Karim: Hamas's actions are a provocation to the occupation, both its military and political institutions, and increase the chances of escalation

Dr. Saeed Shaheen: I rule out that the resistance will take any action that could give the occupation any pretext to violate the ceasefire agreement.

Abdul Marouf: The ceasefire agreement reached under American and Arab sponsorship has taken a path that is not easy to reverse

Wadih Awawdeh: The war option that the far-right government is threatening is not easy because its army is suffering from great exhaustion and bleeding

Anyone who follows the statements of Israeli officials, most notably Benjamin Netanyahu, and the threats and intimidation they issue, the latest of which was after the mistake of handing over a replacement body for the body of the Israeli Sheri Bibas, and after his theatrical storming of the city of Tulkarm, believes that a return to war is just around the corner, and that what is happening is nothing more than a “warrior’s rest” to recover the largest number of Israeli detainees before returning to the language of cannons, planes, bombing, killing, destruction, and perhaps forced displacement.

What increases these fears are the weekly “shows of force” carried out by the resistance, led by the Al-Qassam Brigades, during the operations to hand over Israeli prisoners, and the massive deployment of fighters with weapons they captured from the Israeli army and the unprecedented organization and arrangement that accompanies this, which provokes the ire of the occupying state at all its political and military levels, and at the same time provokes the anger of the Israeli street towards Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition, which has always boasted that it has inflicted heavy losses on the resistance, only to find out that all it has done is kill and wound nearly two hundred thousand Palestinians, the majority of whom are civilians, and cause massive destruction to all the buildings and infrastructure in the Strip.

Writers and analysts who spoke to "I" did not rule out that the occupying state would return to its aggression, considering that Hamas's measures constitute a provocation to the Israeli military and political establishments, and increase the chances of escalation again. However, they considered that the outcomes of Trump's visit to Riyadh could be a decisive factor in determining his position on the crisis in the Gaza Strip.

Resumption of the war on Gaza is a very high possibility

Political analyst Dr. Ghassan Al-Khatib believes that the resumption of the war on Gaza is a very high possibility, and unfortunately almost inevitable, pointing out that this may happen before or after the second stage.

Al-Khatib said, "It is not clear whether the negotiations will allow for a transition to the second phase, or will lead to a bridge between the two phases, or perhaps lead to a confrontation between them."

“Whether before or after the second phase ends, Israel will inevitably resume its aggression against the Gaza Strip,” he added, explaining that the reason for this is the internal political situation in Israel, which reflects a general feeling, both among the public and the political elite, that things are not going in Israel’s favor. The current balance also indicates that Hamas still controls the Gaza Strip, which Israel considers a defeat, or at least a failure to achieve a sufficient victory, which will push the Israeli leadership to modify its image, especially in light of the preparations for the upcoming elections, and to attempt to renew the fighting to adjust the balance in its favor.

Al-Khatib pointed out that the current ceasefire ended in an unfavorable way for Israel, according to the estimates of most political circles there, which was negatively reflected in the results of public opinion polls in favor of Netanyahu and those he represents.

Trump has in principle opened the door to the displacement of the residents of the Strip

Al-Khatib stressed that US President Donald Trump had opened the door, in principle, to the issue of displacing the residents of Gaza, which is very tempting for Israel, but not necessarily in the same literal way that Trump spoke of, such as transferring two million Palestinians from Gaza to Sinai or Jordan.

He explained that Israel realizes that it has experience and knowledge that exceed this direct proposal, but it is concerned with the same principle, meaning that Trump approved the principle of displacement, but how to achieve it is a matter that Israel is planning in different ways.

According to Al-Khatib, what is currently happening in Israel requires two basic things: putting more pressure on the society in Gaza, to push it to accept the idea of leaving, and controlling all border crossings, whether land or sea, with the Gaza Strip, to arrange the immigration operations that Israel seeks.

A decisive and important visit to Riyadh

For his part, Dr. Abdul Wahab Al-Qassab, a member of the World Institute for Arab Renewal and a visiting senior fellow at the Arab Center - Washington, said that the outcomes of former US President Donald Trump’s visit to Riyadh could be a decisive factor in determining his position on the crisis in the Gaza Strip, especially since he will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and a number of Arab leaders, under the auspices of the Saudi Crown Prince.

Regarding whether a return to war is possible given the risks of displacement through killing and opening safe passages for Gazans to exit via Israel, and whether this scenario is possible, Al-Qassab added: “What we expect to happen depends on the outcome of Trump’s visit to Riyadh, where he will meet with Russian President Putin, and perhaps other Arab leaders under the auspices of the Saudi Crown Prince, who will use his position as host and the capabilities of his country to change Trump’s position. This is possible, given that Trump is a deal-maker who looks at everything from the perspective of profit and loss, and hence cooperation with Saudi Arabia and adopting the Arab point of view may be a gain for him, not a loss.”

Trump faces pressure over support for war criminal

Al-Qassab explained that “Trump faces multiple pressures that he must take into account when making his decisions, especially since he supports a war criminal (Netanyahu) convicted by a court recognized and funded by the United States. Israel itself is stigmatized as an occupying entity under the decisions of the International Court of Justice in The Hague, an institution recognized by the United States and in which it has a representative when it ruled on the invalidity of the Zionist occupation of Palestine.

Therefore, these two factors constitute great pressure on the current American administration, despite the Zionist penetration into American decision-making circles.

He pointed out that there is clear discontent within the Republican Party, as some of its leaders have expressed dissatisfaction with Trump's clear bias in supporting a convicted war criminal, to the point that the latter has been forced to avoid flying over European countries that abide by the decisions of the International Criminal Court, for fear of executing arrest warrants against him.

Al-Qassab stressed that Trump has placed himself in obligations that are difficult for him to fulfill, especially with the escalation of internal challenges he faces in the United States, in addition to the dissatisfaction of Europe and Canada, two of Washington's most important allies, with his positions.

Al-Qassab concluded his statement to Al-Quds by saying: “As I mentioned previously, the Riyadh summit will be decisive in resolving this crisis, if the Arabs, led by Saudi Arabia, make good use of the opportunity provided to them by their presidency of this summit. Let us wait and see.”

Israeli and American threats to return to war in a more severe way

In turn, writer and researcher Mansour Abu Karim said that stopping the deal at the first stage is an expected scenario, especially in light of the Israeli and American threats to return to war more intensely, as a result of Israel not achieving its goals so far. In addition, the military parades in Gaza are a source of concern for the political and popular levels in Israel, and are fueling internal anger towards the Gaza Strip and Hamas.

Abu Karim added: The return of war and the end of the deal at the first stage is one of the options on the table due to the political changes within the Israeli government, and the continued Israeli popular anger towards Hamas’s practices, especially with regard to the prisoners’ file and the handover of the remains of Israelis.

He pointed out that Hamas's actions are considered a provocation to the Israeli military and political establishment, which increases the chances of a renewed military escalation.

He stressed that this scenario may help Israel implement Trump's plan to displace the residents of the Gaza Strip abroad, a plan that serves Israel demographically and strategically, because it reduces the population density on its southern borders, which has been a constant pressure factor throughout the conflict.

Focus on the West Bank after finishing Gaza

Abu Karim explained that removing the Palestinians from Gaza would enable Israel to focus on the West Bank and repeat the same scenario there, in light of Smotrich and Ben Gvir’s efforts to achieve what is known as the “conflict resolution plan,” which pushes for the forcible expulsion of the Palestinians from the West Bank for religious, political, and security reasons.

Abu Karim concluded his statement to Al-Quds by saying: The possibility of the deal stopping at the first stage and not moving to the second stage is expected, given the calculations within the Israeli government, Netanyahu’s efforts to maintain his government coalition, in addition to exploiting Trump’s presence in the White House as a contributing factor to achieving the war’s goals.

He added: This scenario may also contribute to the implementation of the forced displacement plan, which represents a major shift in the political, security and demographic landscape of the conflict.

The Palestinian resistance showed great flexibility.

For his part, Dr. Saeed Shaheen, Professor of Political Media at Hebron University, said that the Palestinian resistance showed great flexibility and made concessions in exchange for stopping the war of extermination that turned Gaza into an uninhabitable area.

He ruled out that the Palestinian resistance would take any action that would give the Israeli occupier any pretext to violate the agreement and start a new round of aggression against Gaza.

Shaheen added: "However, the option of resuming the war remains as long as Netanyahu responds to the blackmail of religious fascism and the extremists of the ruling right, who are looking to eliminate Hamas after the rounds of prisoner exchanges and the messages sent by the resistance to Israel and its allies that it still holds the reins of affairs and has not weakened as Israel and its supporters imagined.

Trump's threats embolden Netanyahu and his gang

He continued: What makes Netanyahu's extremist government more intransigent towards resuming the aggression is Trump's repetition of his provocative statement regarding turning Gaza into hell if the Palestinian resistance violates the agreement, which encouraged Netanyahu and his gang to try to evade the agreement by not adhering to its terms, especially the entry of relief supplies, the removal of rubble, and the evacuation of the wounded.

He believes that this matter is pushing Hamas to show great concern about implementing the terms of the agreement, for fear that Netanyahu, who is facing unprecedented pressure from the extreme right, will evade it, and that they will miss the opportunity to prevent the implementation of their threats and plans aimed at displacing the residents of Gaza.

Shaheen confirmed at the end of his statement to Al-Quds that the resistance still has the ability to enter into any future confrontation.

The Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip and the West Bank will continue in various forms

Writer and political analyst Abdul Marouf said that the immediate goal of the Israeli war of extermination in the Gaza Strip after October 7, 2023 is to release the Israeli prisoners and crush and destroy the Hamas movement and the Palestinian resistance factions in the Strip.

He pointed out that the strategic Israeli goal is to spread despair and frustration among the Palestinian people and achieve an advanced step towards liquidating the Palestinian national cause.

Marouf explained that the Israeli aggression against the Palestinian people will continue in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank in various forms, in light of the Israeli bet on its strength and coercion, and in light of the weakness and decline of the Palestinian political and military structure compared to what it was during the past years, or at least compared to the Palestinian capabilities before Operation Flood of Al-Aqsa.

He believes that Tel Aviv is betting on the continuation of its aggression on the state of Palestinian division and the inability of the factions to unify their position on fateful issues and political options.

He said: The Israeli occupation still believes that it is the strongest and in a victorious position, and is betting on its strength and coercion and on the state of Palestinian disintegration and division.

Military control over the Strip and opening safe corridors for migration

Marouf stressed that the conflict will continue in different forms in the Gaza Strip, but not in the form it was in last year, noting that the ceasefire agreement under American and Arab sponsorship took a path that is not easy to reverse, and there will be no chance for a large-scale war in the Gaza Strip, as there was during a year and a half.

He explained that the Israeli government will continue the aggression to achieve its goals through:

- Military control over the Gaza Strip by land, sea and air, and directing military strikes, air raids and ground incursions from time to time.

- Opening safe corridors in all directions to facilitate the voluntary exit and migration of Gazans from the Gaza Strip after life in the Strip turns into hell.

- Continued Israeli, American and Arab pressure on the Palestinian side to make more concessions that guarantee security and stability for the Hebrew state.

Marouf stated that in light of the current military and political scene in the Gaza Strip today and its extensions to the West Bank and the region, it is not expected that the second phase of the ceasefire agreement will be disrupted. He attributed this to the fact that both parties to the conflict have an interest in stopping the comprehensive war and continuing to implement the agreement, especially the exchange of prisoners between Tel Aviv and Hamas. He explained that the Israeli government is still under pressure from the families of prisoners held by the Palestinian factions, and Hamas and the factions are under pressure from the internal Palestinian political situation and the humanitarian conditions facing the Strip.

He added: "It is possible that Netanyahu's government will resort to procrastination, delay, and gain time and postponement, and Hamas and the factions in Gaza will continue to work to show off their strength, adhere to their principles and slogans, and reject the Israeli blackmail policy, but that will not prevent the implementation of the second phase of the agreement."

Escalation to pressure Hamas and the Arabs to make concessions

For his part, the expert on Israeli affairs, Wadih Awawdeh, confirmed that the war option that Israel is threatening is not easy from a practical standpoint, pointing out that the Israeli army is suffering from exhaustion and heavy bleeding, in light of the American administration’s rush to reach a broader political deal.

Awawdeh explained that the military escalation is part of the pressure on Hamas and the Arabs, with the aim of pushing them to make concessions, whether with regard to Hamas’s authority in Gaza or the weapons file.

He believed that the current priority is to exert pressure and move towards a settlement, but that is conditional on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintaining his government coalition, especially in light of the great internal pressures.

He pointed out that Netanyahu seeks to extend the first phase of the war and not move directly to the second phase, as stipulated in the original framework agreement, because the next phase includes decisive political dimensions, such as ending the war and a complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, which could lead to the disintegration of the Israeli government.

Israel is heading towards a settlement scenario!

Awawdeh added: Netanyahu is waiting to achieve several goals before taking any decisive step, most notably consolidating his internal coalition, obtaining more support and aid from Washington, in addition to intensifying American and Israeli pressure on Arab countries to find a solution to the Hamas issue, as the movement is being pushed to choose between remaining in power or the future of the entire Gaza Strip.

Awawdeh concluded his interview with Al-Quds by stressing that his reading, based on various Israeli data, leads him to believe that Israel is heading towards a settlement scenario, but it is still linked to complex internal and regional factors.