Netanyahu's Ambiguity on the Gaza Deal Serves Israel and Hamas – but the Hostages Don't Have Time

By Ravit Hecht

Under U.S. pressure to continue the cease-fire, Israel is conditioning the end of the war on exiling senior Hamas leaders from Gaza. And while Hamas has agreed to transfer Gaza's civilian administration to the PA, this demand is unlikely to be met

With the accelerated conclusion of the first stage of the hostage release deal – a stage that, had it not been for the opposition of the Religious Zionism party, which opposed it, would never have really been in danger – next comes the main course, along with bones that will be difficult to handle. That's the second stage, which includes the rescue of the remaining hostages, including most importantly 24 live hostages, some in serious medical condition, as the recent returning hostages have reported.

In the face of focused and determined American pressure to continue to the second stage and to conclude the hostage saga as quickly as possible, at this time, Israel is making a demand that conditions the end of the war and the withdrawal of the Israeli army from Gaza on the exiling of those among the senior Hamas leadership that remain in the Strip. 

At this stage at least, the prospects that such a demand will be addressed aren't high. Granted that Hamas has agreed to transfer civilian control of the Strip to other entities such as the Palestinian Authority, but it's refusing to give up its military control or to reduce it. That's a demand that Netanyahu would find very difficult to accept and get approval for – and not only for political reasons. (Another demand, which is a kind of deal-breaker for Israel, is the release of Hamas' Nukhba terrorists who committed the crimes of October 7).

The challenge for Netanyahu, who like President Trump isn't interested in renewing the war in Gaza, is to maneuver through these binary constraints, which don't allow the two sides' demands or conditions to be bridged. Netanyahu is trying as best he can to extend the twilight zone between the first and second stages and in the process to attempt to free several more living hostages, possibly in exchange for various humanitarian benefits, such as providing work tools and mechanical equipment, thanks to which the release of hostages in the coming days was expedited.

"The effort at the moment will be to find a vague formula that Hamas can also live with and that would permit a cease-fire that is not of set duration without declaring an end to the war," one cabinet source said. "This, while promising [Finance Minister Bezalel] Smotrich a return to the fighting at some time, until a solution is found to remove Hamas from power."

It's hard to see how this circle can be squared, but the efforts aren't ceasing. According to the source, in light of this, the heavyweight Gaza population transfer demand that Trump interjected, should apparently also be seen as a pressure tactic on Egypt and Jordan in connection with the Gaza issue only to be later be abandoned for their benefit or for the Saudis.

Such vague wording sounds like a meaningless idea, but in practice, it might serve the interests of both sides. Netanyahu wouldn't pay with his government for a temporary cease-fire and might even manage to bring about the release of more hostages. Hamas would remain around the table as a relevant party. This certainly isn't a fundamental, long-term solution, but it buys both sides time and that, apparently, is the most necessary ingredient in the region. The only ones who don't have time are the hostages and their families, who are being relegated in the coming weeks to uncertainty and major anguish.

And when it comes the "day after" that everyone has been wracking their brains over, a much more realistic possibility than an American occupation of Gaza or turning the Strip into a real estate gem – or other suggestions that have been thrown around without consideration in recent days – is an Arab coalition of the kind that is being put together at this time aimed at purportedly responding to Trump's population transfer idea but that is actually aimed at a pro-Arab and pro-Palestinian proposal as a solution to the distress in Gaza.

It would be reasonable for the Palestinian Authority to have a senior role in such a coalition. And Hamas would also take part in it through the back door. (Burying the identity of the problematic members in it would enable both sides to get the coalition down their throats.) That's the only possible escape hatch that would avoid a resumption of the war, a step that none of the major players are interested in.