Jordan and Egypt Warn Gaza Displacement Will Solidify Hamas Presence Along Israel's Borders

By Yaniv Kubovich

Senior Israeli security officials say both countries warned of the impact of Trump's Gaza transfer plan; They added that Hamas leaders are preparing for a leadership struggle against newly released prisoners, potentially leading to more extreme actions

Egyptian and Jordanian officials have raised concerns that a large-scale displacement of Gaza's Palestinians into their countries could lead to the establishment of terrorist strongholds along their borders with Israel.

According to senior security officials, both countries have warned of potential consequences stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump's proposal to expel Gaza's population to their lands.

Egyptian security officials fear that an influx of hundreds of thousands of Hamas operatives into the Sinai region through the Rafah crossing could destabilize the border and threaten the peace agreement between Egypt and Israel.

In Jordan, authorities stress that the kingdom's political climate is already sensitive, especially following the significant gains made by the Muslim Brotherhood in the parliamentary elections last September.

Jordanian security officials warn that the forced relocation of approximately one million Gazans into the country could allow Hamas and other militant groups to establish a presence along Israel's eastern border – from Eilat in the south to the southern tip of Lake Kinneret in the north of Israel.

Jordan has also detected Iranian attempts to infiltrate its territory, aiming to undermine the kingdom's stability and influence. Officials believe that after losing its stronghold in Syria and Lebanon, the Shiite axis now views Jordan as the next potential proxy through which it can expand its regional foothold.

According to Israeli security officials, Hamas has managed to maintain its grip on power in Gaza, partly by controlling the distribution of humanitarian aid which reinforced residents' dependence on the militant organization.

Over the past few months, as the Israeli military focused its operations in northern Gaza, Hamas reasserted its authority in the central and southern regions, restoring a semblance of normalcy for the local population.-

One of Hamas' first actions was to reinstate local government services to address immediate civilian needs. For example, shortly after the cease-fire took effect, the Rafah municipality was tasked with clearing debris and repairing roads using engineering equipment provided to them.

At the same time, Hamas began rehabilitating hospitals, reopening medical wards to treat the large number of wounded, and resuming school operations to prevent social unrest among displaced youth.

Hamas has also been pressuring northern Gaza residents to return to their homes despite the absence of infrastructure and basic living conditions. The organization believes that repopulating the north would complicate any future Israeli military operations should the cease-fire agreement collapse.

Estimates suggest that around 100,000 Gazans have already returned north, though many later turned back due to harsh conditions. Some settled in areas of Gaza City untouched by recent military action, while others refused to leave the displacement camps and temporary shelters out of fear of renewed fighting.

Hamas leaders were reportedly unaware of the full scale of destruction in northern Gaza and are now pressing mediating countries to expedite the supply of essential reconstruction materials. As part of the cease-fire and hostage-release agreement, various nations committed to sending engineering equipment, housing units, and tents to Gaza.

Israel has agreed to facilitate these shipments, but so far, only a fraction of the promised supplies – estimated at a few thousand units – has arrived, falling far short of actual needs.

From a military standpoint, Israeli security officials were not surprised by Hamas' conduct during the hostage negotiations, having anticipated that the group would seek to portray itself as an organized governing entity.

Sources suggests that Hamas initiated its rebuilding efforts early in the war, with operatives embedding themselves among civilians in humanitarian safe zones. However, despite these efforts, experts believe it will take Hamas a significant amount of time to restore its military capabilities.

Meanwhile, internal tensions within Hamas are brewing over leadership in Gaza. Senior security officials note that some of the recently released prisoners from the hostage deal hold greater influence within the organization than Yahya Sinwar did at the time of his release in the 2011 Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange.

These figures reportedly view Mohammed Sinwar's leadership as illegitimate, as he was not elected, and they are expected to challenge his authority. Israeli security agencies are closely monitoring whether this power struggle will lead the current Hamas leadership to adopt more extreme measures against both Israel and Gaza's civilian population.