Nizar Nazzal: The calm will continue in the short term, and Netanyahu will return to war, relying on “vertical conflict based on accurate intelligence information.”

Nabhan Khreisha: Trump’s statement that he will not guarantee the continuation of the ceasefire is part of political blackmail aimed at achieving Israeli goals at the expense of Palestinian rights

Daoud Kuttab: The current truce agreement is fraught with risks, and what is required now is not only to ensure that the war does not resume, but to find long-term solutions that guarantee stability in Gaza.

Nihad Abu Ghosh: Netanyahu's government reluctantly agreed to the truce agreement... and the second phase is full of complex details, which makes Israel's commitment to it unlikely

Majed Hadeeb: The truce in Gaza comes within the framework of an American strategy to cool the hot fronts in the region and will end with a ceasefire with a conditional Israeli withdrawal

Sari Samour: The future of the truce is still unclear and Israel will continue to put obstacles in the way of any agreement, but it will not necessarily seek to completely thwart it

The recent ceasefire agreements in the Gaza Strip have raised widespread controversy over the possibility of their continuation to end with a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and an Israeli withdrawal from the Strip, or a return to resuming the war, despite the likelihood that it will not break out, or at least that it will not be with the same momentum.

In separate interviews with “I”, writers, political analysts and specialists believe that the United States of America is playing a pivotal role in managing the threads of the crisis, as the truce file is being used as a pressure tool to achieve political gains that go beyond the borders of Gaza.

They point out that US President Donald Trump's ambiguous statements about the lack of guarantees for the continuation of the ceasefire open the door to multiple scenarios, ranging from consolidating the calm or resuming the escalation in a different way.

They point out that Israel may return to military operations in the Gaza Strip, but with new methods that rely on precise intelligence tactics instead of a comprehensive confrontation.

The prisoners' issue is the main concern for Israel.

Nizar Nazzal, a researcher specializing in Israeli affairs and conflict issues, believes that the current calm in the Gaza Strip will continue in the foreseeable future, noting that the issue of prisoners will remain the main focus of interest for Israel, which is seeking to achieve gains in this file without entering into a comprehensive confrontation.

Nazzal says: “If we look at the Israeli political statements, we find a state of ambiguity and conflict regarding the second phase of the ceasefire agreements. There are vague terms that are being used deliberately, which reflects a state of lack of clarity regarding the Israeli intentions regarding the future of military operations in Gaza and their form.”

Nazzal points out that things are moving towards continuing the prisoner exchange file as a priority, but there are serious concerns about the repercussions of this path on the political situation inside Israel.

"There is a fear that extremist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich will withdraw from the government if the prisoner exchange deal continues without resuming the fighting," Nazzal said.

Nazzal believes that the war on the Gaza Strip will not resume in the way it happened, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will return to activate military operations, but through different tactics than before, and may adopt a military model similar to Israel’s experience in southern Lebanon, relying on “vertical conflict based on accurate intelligence information,” without officially announcing the start of a new war.

Nazzal says: “Netanyahu will use this tactic to give Smotrich and his allies a clear message that the war is still raging, whether in Gaza or the West Bank, where the occupation is expected to escalate its military operations in various areas of the West Bank.”

Nazzal expects that the next phase will witness a military escalation in Gaza, saying: “In my estimation, during the month of March, we will witness repeated air strikes and intensive use of artillery, perhaps at a rate of almost daily or even daily or more than once a day, and the aim of that is to send a clear message to allies at home and abroad that Israel has resumed fighting, even if it has not officially announced that.”

Nazzal touches on the American role in managing the conflict, noting that US President Donald Trump is particularly focused on the issue of the seven American citizens held in Gaza, in addition to the file of prisoners held by the Palestinian resistance.

“This is what Trump really cares about,” Nazzal says. “We noticed this when his envoy, Steve Witkoff, visited the Salah al-Din axis a few days ago, where he indicated that implementing the agreement is more difficult than reaching it. When asked about the ceasefire, Trump said that Witkoff had the information.”

“It seems that Trump is hinting at the possibility of giving the green light to resume fighting again, driven by a strong pressure movement by the Zionist lobby in the United States, and this lobby is working to push Republicans to support Netanyahu in resuming the conflict, which is in line with Netanyahu’s desire to maintain the cohesion of his far-right government, which will face the risk of collapse if military operations are not resumed,” Nazzal said.

Nazzal points out that there is an undeclared understanding between Netanyahu and Trump about the nature of the fighting in the next stage, noting that the current Israeli focus is only on the prisoners’ file.

He says: “The war is not a realistic or unrealistic issue as much as it is subject to Israeli security needs and Netanyahu’s requirements to protect his government from falling, without any consideration for Palestinian blood or the Palestinian cause, which no longer enjoys the same international interest.”

Regarding the possibility of launching a large-scale ground operation in Gaza, Nazzal rules out this scenario, saying: “It is unlikely that Israel will deploy large brigades and units inside the Strip. Experience over the past 15 months has shown that such operations are very costly for it, especially since it has lost many of its soldiers. I believe that Israel will rely on copying its experience in southern Lebanon, with air strikes and targeting specific sites based on intelligence information, and perhaps carrying out limited invasions, but without returning to a large-scale war.”

The possibility of a return to war is weak.

Journalist Nabhan Khreisha believes that the possibility of Israel returning to war on Gaza after completing the first phase of the ceasefire agreement with Hamas is weak, and even highly unlikely.

Khreisha points out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, before heading to the United States, excluded the heads of Mossad and Shin Bet from leading the indirect negotiations with Hamas, and assigned this task to Ron Dermer, the Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs, who is very close to US President Donald Trump. This change in the leadership of the negotiations reflects a shift in Netanyahu’s vision, as the negotiations have become purely political in nature, rather than military or security-related.

Khreisha explains that Netanyahu seeks to trade Israel's commitment to a ceasefire in Gaza for major political gains, the most important of which is annexing parts of the West Bank to Israel. Netanyahu also wants a guarantee from Trump to implement plans to displace Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank to Jordan and Egypt.

In addition, according to Khreisha, Netanyahu seeks to harmonize the Israeli-American positions regarding the “day after” the war in Gaza, and to object to any American position that might support the establishment of a Palestinian entity in the West Bank and Gaza, especially within the framework of the American-Saudi talks on normalization with Israel.

He points out that Netanyahu also wants to obtain American military and political support to confront Iran, with the aim of eliminating its weapons capabilities and nuclear program.

Khreisha believes that these demands are part of Netanyahu's strategy to compensate for his failure to achieve what he called "absolute victory" in the Gaza war, as he has now turned to the theory of "absolute compensation", which depends on achieving political and economic gains at the expense of the Palestinian people.

Khreisha confirms that Netanyahu feels major internal threats, especially with the position of his far-right ally, Bezalel Smotrich, who threatens to bring down the Israeli government if the war on Gaza does not continue.

Khreisha points out that Netanyahu is facing a significant decline in his popularity according to opinion polls, despite his success in recovering the Israeli prisoners held in Gaza. Therefore, Netanyahu is relying on the “absolute compensation” strategy to save his political future, by obtaining Trump’s support for annexing Palestinian lands and displacing Palestinians.

Khreisha points out that Trump's recent statements, in which he declared that there are no guarantees that the ceasefire will continue, are part of a multi-faceted pressure strategy. Trump is not only putting pressure on Hamas, but also on Egypt, Jordan and other regional countries, with the aim of forcing them to accept plans to displace the Palestinians.

He explains that Trump is using the threat of returning to war as a blackmail tool, as the continuation of the war on Gaza and its expansion to the West Bank could lead to significant human losses, which could threaten the stability of Arab regimes due to popular anger.

Khreisha points to another statement by Trump, in which he implicitly referred to annexing parts of the West Bank to Israel, saying that the area of Israel is very small compared to the areas of the countries of the Middle East.

Khreisha believes that this statement by Trump, along with his statement that he will not guarantee the continuation of the ceasefire, is part of a political blackmail process aimed at achieving Israeli goals at the expense of Palestinian rights.

Netanyahu hopes for 'consolation prizes'

Writer and political analyst Daoud Kuttab believes that the US administration and most political circles in Israel prefer to continue the calm in the Gaza Strip, noting that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hopes to obtain additional "consolation prizes" before agreeing to end the war, even though this decision may constitute the end of his political career.

Writers explain that the current armistice agreement is fraught with many risks, the most important of which is that it has not been transformed into a binding resolution issued by the UN Security Council, nor has it been supported by an official American guarantee paper directed to the Arab side, which weakens its steadfastness and sustainability.

However, writers believe that the United States is seeking a comprehensive regional solution that inherently requires a complete cessation of the war on Gaza as a fundamental step towards achieving stability in the region.

The book indicates that the possibility of returning to a comprehensive war or the Israeli reoccupation of Gaza seems difficult at this stage, but that does not rule out the possibility of carrying out limited military operations or assassinations after the completion of the process of releasing the Israeli detainees held by the Palestinian resistance.

He stressed that what is required now is not only ensuring that the war does not resume, but also finding long-term solutions that guarantee stability in Gaza.

The writers stress that this goal cannot be achieved without a comprehensive national agreement between the Fatah and Hamas movements, saying: “There is no solution for Gaza that can succeed if it is limited to Hamas alone, nor can it be overcome without a role for Hamas. Therefore, participation between the two parties has become an inevitable necessity.”

Writers point out that the Palestinian Authority may play a more public role in the coming period, especially with regard to reconstruction efforts, given the desire of the international community and Israel to have an official body with which to deal.

However, writers stress that any agreement on the “day after” Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza will not see the light of day without the tacit approval of Hamas, making internal Palestinian consensus a crucial element in any future arrangements.

The agreement did not achieve the goals of the Netanyahu government

Writer and political analyst Nihad Abu Ghosh believes that Israel, and specifically Benjamin Netanyahu's government, reluctantly agreed to the ceasefire agreement with the Gaza Strip, as this agreement did not achieve the goals set by the government before the war began.

Abu Ghosh explains that Israel has failed to achieve its declared goals, such as eliminating the resistance, recovering Israeli prisoners, and even undeclared goals such as displacing the Palestinian population, or cutting off parts of Gaza and perhaps re-settling.

According to Abu Ghosh, Netanyahu was hoping to continue the war, but international pressure, especially from the administration of US President Donald Trump, forced him to accept the agreement. Trump played a pivotal role by setting a deadline for concluding the agreement to coincide with his inauguration as US President, which put great pressure on Netanyahu’s government. In addition, internal pressure from the families of soldiers and prisoners, as well as the deteriorating economic conditions, played an important role in pushing Israel towards signing the agreement.

Abu Ghosh points out that the first phase of the agreement helped absorb popular anger inside Israel and gave Netanyahu more time, but the second phase of the negotiations is full of complex details, which makes Israel’s commitment to it unlikely. Israel has shown violations even during the implementation of the four batches of the first phase of prisoner releases, and it is expected that these violations will worsen in the second phase on more sensitive issues such as the entry of reconstruction materials and humanitarian aid, and the return of residents to their areas.

Netanyahu's visit to the United States and his meeting with Trump are seen as reflecting Israel's desire to use American support to achieve long-term strategic goals, such as annexing large parts of the West Bank, promoting normalization with Saudi Arabia, and confronting Iran.

Abu Ghosh explains that Trump's statements on the Palestinian issue seem ambiguous and have multiple interpretations, as they may be aimed at pressuring the Palestinians or even Netanyahu.

Regarding the possibility of resuming the war on Gaza, Abu Ghosh explains that this demand has the support of the right within the Israeli government, not only from figures such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, but also within the Likud party and the military institutions. However, there are factors that pressure to prevent the resumption of the war, such as the Israeli army’s need for a period of rest to rebuild its capabilities after the gaps revealed by the last war.

Abu Ghosh points out that Israel's international standing and its ambitions to normalize relations with Arab countries, in addition to internal pressure to demand early elections and replace the current leadership, may push towards establishing a permanent ceasefire.

Abu Ghosh confirms that Israel is in a phase of conflict between forces pushing for the resumption of the war to ensure Netanyahu's continued rule, and others seeking to stop it in preparation for reorganizing the internal Israeli scene politically and institutionally.

Trump's plan is moving towards cooling the hot fronts

Writer and political analyst Majed Hadeeb believes that the calm in the Gaza Strip will continue and will end with a ceasefire with a conditional Israeli withdrawal from the Strip, for many reasons related to regional and international politics, in addition to internal developments in Israel and Palestine.

Hadib points out that this calm comes within the framework of an American strategy to cool the hot fronts in the region, especially after the recent tensions witnessed on the Gaza war front.

Hadib believes that US President Donald Trump's plan is aimed at cooling the hot fronts in the Middle East, in order to achieve economic and political gains for the United States.

Hadib explains that Washington seeks to reap the benefits of the tensions witnessed in the region, especially after the recent war on Gaza, which sparked a wave of international and regional anger.

Hadib points out that the economic agreements that were prepared in the wake of these tensions will be one of the main reasons for the continuation of the calm.

On the other hand, Hadeeb believes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has achieved most of the goals of the war on Gaza, and is now focusing on implementing the annexation plans that came within the framework of the "Deal of the Century."

Hadeeb explains that Netanyahu is working to annex some areas of the West Bank to Israel, according to the vision presented by Trump in his peace plan.

Hadeeb points out that these plans include annexing major settlements and the lands surrounding them, while giving up other areas that are less important from the Israeli point of view.

Hadeeb asserts that the truce will continue despite the threats facing Netanyahu's government from far-right ministers in Israel, such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who threaten to bring down the government if more stringent policies are not implemented.

Hadeeb explains that these threats from Smotrich and Ben-Gvir are no longer effective in light of the Israeli opposition’s readiness to give Netanyahu a “safety net” if he continues to seek a prisoner exchange deal and a ceasefire.

Hadeeb points out that Hamas will eventually succumb to Arab pressure, especially from influential countries such as Qatar, which is considered the movement’s main decision-maker, regarding giving up the administration of Gaza and convincing Hamas to accept a ceasefire and a conditional Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, especially with the absence of serious conditions from Netanyahu regarding a complete withdrawal from the Strip.

Regarding Trump's recent statements in which he indicated that there are no guarantees for the continuation of the truce, Hadeeb believes that these statements are not the first of their kind, and will not be the last.

Hadib explains that Trump had previously stated that Israel and Hamas were “free” to reach an agreement or not, which means that he would not put much pressure on the parties to achieve calm.

However, Hadeeb believes that Trump's recent statements were primarily directed at Netanyahu, as a message that the United States will not allow him to blackmail it again for additional promises or guarantees.

He points out that Netanyahu will gain some benefits from his meeting with Trump, especially with regard to the Palestinian issue, including obtaining American support at the United Nations for the annexation steps he intends to implement in the West Bank, especially in the areas surrounding Jerusalem and the northern West Bank. Israel is also expected to obtain American support in banning the activities of some international institutions, such as the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), which Israel considers hostile to it.

Hadeeb explains that Israel is also seeking to redraw some Palestinian areas and population centers, especially in the camps, in preparation for dropping the right of return and compensation for Palestinian refugees.

Hadib points out that this step will be part of the Israeli efforts to end all aspects of Palestinian asylum, which will find support from the US administration.

Trump's Contradictory Statements... Ambiguity about the Next Phase

Writer and political analyst Sari Samour believes that the future of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is still unclear, as the chances of the ceasefire continuing or the resumption of military operations are equal to 50% for each at the present time, although they could change in the future.

Samour points out that the contradictory statements issued by US President Donald Trump reflect a state of ambiguity and uncertainty about the next stage.

Samour believes that Trump's statements raise questions about his true intentions, whether he intended to frighten the Israelis or pressure the Arab parties that rejected the displacement plans.

"Trump's positions cannot be predicted," Samour says. "He makes vague statements whose precise intentions no one knows, which further complicates the regional scene."

But Samour points out that there is real American pressure being exerted on Israel to stop military operations in Gaza or at least reduce their pace compared to what they were previously.

Samour points out that although the continuation of the war is causing widespread destruction to the Palestinian people, the Israeli army has also suffered great losses on both the human and material levels, which makes the decision to return to war more complicated than before.

Samour stresses that Israel will continue to put obstacles in the way of any ceasefire agreement, but will not necessarily seek to completely thwart it, as it realizes that the continuation of tension without reaching political solutions or prisoner exchange agreements may negatively affect its internal stability.

Samour points out that the war waged by Israel on Gaza did not fully achieve its goals, and that talk of resuming the fighting is not realistic at present, but it remains a possible possibility in light of the continued Western and American support for Israel.

Samour believes that Israel is currently focusing on the West Bank and seeking to reshape it in line with its interests, but it will not completely ignore Gaza, as it may resort to political escalation or use files such as reconstruction and control of the Rafah crossing as a pressure card on the Palestinians and blackmail them.

Samour explains that Israel is seriously seeking to complete the prisoner exchange deal and recover all its prisoners, including those held in the second phase of the agreement, pointing out that there are Qatari and Egyptian statements confirming that they have obtained American guarantees that the war will not resume.

Samour asserts that the consequences of the war on Gaza will appear clearly in Israeli society in the coming period, as the Israeli government will face a “series of political and social earthquakes” as a result of the military failure and the losses it has incurred, especially since the Palestinian resistance has demonstrated its ability to continue to direct painful blows to the occupation, despite the massive destruction that the Strip has been subjected to.