Trump and Forced Displacement: The New Blueprint for Hegemony

American policy has always played a pivotal role in shaping power equations in the Middle East. This role has not been limited to unconditional support for Israel, but has extended to include adopting a discourse that legitimizes coercive solutions that serve American and Israeli strategic interests. In this context, Donald Trump’s statement that “Egypt and Jordan will do whatever I want” when talking about displacing Palestinians from Gaza was a dangerous indication of a hegemonic approach that goes beyond merely supporting Israel to extend to imposing specific perceptions on the countries of the region. However, this discourse is not just a passing media outburst, but rather reflects deeper transformations related to major economic projects and the redrawing of the region’s political geography, including vital areas such as energy and infrastructure that Israel seeks to dominate, which increases the complexity of the regional scene and reflects the intertwined conflicts of interests.

First: The geopolitical dimension: Gaza between isolation and demographic emptying

1. The proposed channel and the final isolation of Gaza

A- According to the plan of Israeli General Giora Eiland, Israel seeks to establish the Ben Gurion Canal, a two-lane waterway that aims to form a strategic alternative to the Suez Canal. This canal is not just an economic project, but is considered an effective tool to isolate Gaza from the rest of the Palestinian and Egyptian territories, turning it into a water- and land-locked enclave. This isolation makes it difficult, if not impossible, to connect Gaza to the West Bank in the future, and reinforces the disintegration of the geographical and political fabric of the Palestinians, which exacerbates the challenges they face in their quest for independence and sovereignty.

B- This new geographical reality imposes two harsh choices on the people of Gaza: either accept the new occupation and live under its pressure, or face stifling living pressures that push them towards forced migration. This situation does not leave them room to think about other options, but rather reflects a state of despair and frustration, as the harsh conditions reinforce their desire to escape their bitter reality. Consequently, displacement becomes an imposed choice, which increases the complexity of the humanitarian dimensions of the crisis and deepens their suffering in the absence of effective political solutions.

2. The impact of the canal on the Egyptian and Jordanian role

Despite the economic gains that may appear to be for Egypt and Jordan from the Ben Gurion Canal project, the risks involved far outweigh the potential benefits. Opening a new trade route threatens the Suez Canal, which reflects a direct threat to one of Egypt’s most important sources of national income, and weakens its strategic position in global trade. In addition, the infrastructure transformations resulting from this project may impose a new reality on Jordan, where it becomes a mere transit station for new trade routes, without having a sovereign role or effective influence in shaping trade policies, as it reflects the erosion of the regional influence of both countries, and increases the complexity of political and economic relations in the region, which raises questions about the future of regional cooperation and the ability of countries to protect their interests in light of geopolitical changes.

Second: The economic dimension: Gas and trade as tools of political pressure

1. Controlling gas as a primary driver

A- The Eastern Mediterranean region has huge reserves of natural gas, estimated at about 3 trillion cubic meters, some of which are located in the waters adjacent to Gaza. Israeli control over these resources means that it has a strategic pressure card on European countries seeking to reduce their dependence on Russian gas.

B- The escalation of tensions over the gas fields is not new, but the change in the dynamics of the conflict—with the destruction of Gaza’s infrastructure and the possibility of redrawing its maritime borders—gives Israel a golden opportunity to redraw the gas exploitation lines away from any Palestinian demands.

2.Israeli Silk Road Project

A- In parallel with the Ben Gurion Canal, Israel seeks to develop land trade routes as an alternative to traditional routes. This project is in line with Israel’s vision of becoming a global trade hub linking Asia to Europe, bypassing Egyptian and Turkish influence in the region.

B- This project cannot be separated from the war on Gaza, as dismantling Hamas’s authority and emptying the Strip of its residents or subjecting it to indirect Israeli control opens the way for turning the Palestinian territories into mere transit points for goods, and not a viable political entity.

Third: The security dimension: from the threat to Israel to the threat to Egypt

1. The emergence of Hamas as a persistent force despite the war and its massive destruction, scenes of prisoner exchanges and the appearance of Hamas fighters driving modern cars and using advanced weapons have raised deep concerns in both Israel and Egypt. These phenomena reflect Hamas’s ability to adapt and persist, raising questions about the effectiveness of the military and political strategies adopted by the parties involved.

2. For Israel, the continued existence of Hamas’s armed wing, even if decentralized, means that the Israeli project has not fully achieved its goals. This reality indicates the failure of attempts to weaken Hamas and silence its voice, reflecting an ongoing challenge to Israeli security. As for Egypt, the presence of an independent armed force on its borders could constitute a factor of strategic instability, especially in light of the lack of full control over Sinai, which further complicates the security landscape and increases fears of potential repercussions on Egypt’s internal security.

Fourth: The social and psychological dimension: Distortions resulting from war, and the return of civilians to an uninhabitable land:

1. The tragic scenes of residents of northern Gaza returning on foot or in primitive animal-drawn carts reflect the massive destruction of infrastructure. These painful images embody a human tragedy that reflects the loss of hope and the absence of basic necessities of life, making the return to the homeland an unbearable and bitter experience.

2. This destruction is not limited to demolished buildings, but extends to distort the social fabric that existed. The loss of basic necessities of life prompts residents to hold Hamas responsible for the catastrophic reality, although this blame may be far from the truth, especially in light of the lack of a clear alternative beyond accepting the occupation. This feeling of disappointment reinforces the internal division and increases the complexity of the political scene.

3. In this situation, an environment is created for Israel to promote the narrative of “liberating Gaza from Hamas,” seeking to gain international support for its future projects in the region. This narrative exploits the suffering of civilians to justify military policies, raising questions about political ethics and the ability of the international community to confront these humanitarian challenges.

Future results and implications

1. Reshaping the Middle East according to an Israeli vision

A- The proposed projects are not just future plans, but actual movements that have begun to crystallize on the ground, whether through infrastructure projects or economic agreements that enhance Israeli influence in the region.

B- Achieving this vision requires either emptying Gaza of its population or subjecting it to indirect Israeli control, which explains the political and economic pressures exerted on Egypt and Jordan to accept these arrangements.

T- Neutralizing the Egyptian and Jordanian roles in managing the Palestinian issue files may lead to internal unrest in both countries, as the governments will face popular opposition to any steps that may be understood as acceptance of Israeli plans.

2. The impact of American policies on the future of the conflict

A- The United States adopts a discourse that gives Israel a wide margin of action that enhances the possibility of implementing these plans, whether through military support or through imposing economic agendas that make the countries of the region mere tools to achieve the American and Israeli strategy.

B- This approach increases the possibility of escalating the conflict in the long term, as imposing coercive solutions will not lead to stability, but will create new rounds of violence and resistance, as previous experiences have proven.

3. Possible scenarios: between resistance and forced adaptation

A- If pressure on Gaza continues without achieving a large-scale displacement, the resistance may develop into new forms, whether through regional alliances or through long-term strategies of war of attrition.

B- However, if the pressures succeed in imposing a new reality, we may witness radical transformations in the nature of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, where the economic and security dimensions become the primary driver instead of traditional national demands.

T- In all cases, the region is heading towards a major restructuring phase, the repercussions of which will not stop at the borders of Palestine, but will extend to include the balance of power in the entire Middle East.

Trump’s speech appears to be more than just random statements, but rather a reflection of a broader strategy aimed at redrawing the political and economic geography of the region according to an Israeli vision. With the proliferation of mega-projects such as the Ben-Gurion Canal and new trade corridors, the Palestinian issue is entering a new phase that goes beyond direct military confrontation to a struggle over infrastructure and resources. However, attempts to impose this vision by force will not necessarily lead to lasting stability, but may push the region into further chaos and confrontation, making the future of the Middle East more uncertain than ever.

In light of these major challenges, the Palestinian leadership is required to take strategic steps that strengthen Palestinian steadfastness and thwart plans aimed at emptying Gaza and reshaping the political geography in Israel’s favor. Among the required steps are:

1. Building a unified national vision

A- Overcoming internal divisions between Palestinian factions, and working to form a unified political front capable of facing challenges.

B- Restructuring Palestinian institutions to be more representative and effective in decision-making.

T- Strengthening unity between the West Bank and Gaza to prevent Israel from imposing a separate geographic and political reality for each.

2. Activating international diplomacy more effectively

A- Employing international changes, especially the change in the positions of some countries towards Israel, to mobilize greater support for the Palestinian cause in international forums.

B- Pressuring Arab and Islamic countries to take stricter positions towards projects that threaten the Palestinian existence, especially with regard to forced displacement.

T- Communicating with influential international powers, such as the European Union, China, and Russia, to ensure that the United States does not monopolize shaping the future of Palestine and the region.

3. Strengthening economic and social resilience

A- Investing in projects that enhance self-reliance, especially in the agricultural, industrial and energy sectors, to reduce economic dependence on Israel.

B- Encouraging youth and economic initiatives within Palestine, to provide job opportunities and reduce migration resulting from the deterioration of living conditions.

T- Developing support programmes for Palestinian families in Gaza and the West Bank, especially in light of attempts to empty the Strip of its population.

4. Investing in political and popular resistance

A- Supporting peaceful popular resistance movements such as the economic boycott of Israel (BDS), and strengthening international campaigns that expose Israeli violations.

B- Maintaining the momentum of resistance in all its forms, while developing new strategies that make the continuation of the occupation politically and economically costly for Israel.

T- Strengthening the Palestinian presence in areas targeted by settlement and displacement, such as Area C in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

5. Redefining the relationship with Arab countries

A- Not to be satisfied with reactions to Israeli moves, but to work on formulating Arab initiatives that enhance the Palestinian presence in the regional equation.

B- Pressuring countries that have normalized relations with Israel to prevent normalization agreements from becoming a tool for imposing Israeli agendas at the expense of Palestinian rights.

T- Strengthening the Palestinian role in regional cooperation projects, such as energy projects and trade linkage, to ensure that Palestine is not excluded from these equations.

6. Confronting Israeli plans through the media and politics

A- Establishing research and media centers specialized in exposing Israeli plans, especially with regard to projects such as the Ben Gurion Canal and plans to displace Palestinians.

B- Using international media and social media platforms to expose Israeli violations and gain the sympathy of global public opinion.

T- Developing a unified Palestinian media strategy that confronts the Israeli narrative that markets itself as the party harmed by the conflict.

In conclusion, the Palestinian leadership today faces a historic challenge that requires a unified vision, well-thought-out diplomatic and economic moves, and strengthening the steadfastness of the Palestinian people in the face of forced displacement and normalization projects. The battle is no longer just military, but has become a battle for political and economic survival, requiring new strategies that restore the initiative to the Palestinians, instead of being merely a party that receives shocks.