Does Trump have a clear vision for the Gaza Strip?

Mohamed El-Minshawy

US President-elect Donald Trump did not wait for his return to the White House before he and his team engaged in working to resolve the crisis of the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip. Rather, his envoy for Middle East peace, Stephen Witkoff, is playing a major role in the indirect negotiations taking place between Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement "Hamas" in the Qatari capital, Doha.

A month ago, Trump surprised American circles following the Gaza crisis with a sharp statement in which he threatened the entire Middle East with "hell" if the prisoners held before his inauguration on January 20 were not released. After Trump pledged to bring "peace" to the Middle East, hinting that he would end the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, without mentioning how.

Trump said, "This will not be good for Hamas and it will not be good, frankly, for anybody. Hell will break out, and there is no need to say more, but this is it. This should never have happened," referring to Operation Flood of Al-Aqsa.

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Gregory Aftandilian, an expert on the Middle East peace file and professor at the American University in Washington, said: “The incoming Trump administration does not have a clear vision for Gaza other than ensuring that Hamas will not rule the Strip again. The administration wants a ceasefire as soon as it takes power on the 20th of this month, but it is not clear what political entity it prefers.” Difficulty in defining Trump's vision

In turn, American foreign policy expert Asal Arad ruled out the possibility of defining a clear vision from the new administration regarding Gaza, given the unpredictable nature of President Trump. However, Trump himself made it clear that he wanted the hostages released before he officially took office and threatened a major response if that did not happen.

Arad considered, in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, that Trump's record during his first term may "indicate that his second administration may bless the occupation and annexation of lands in Gaza, and if his second presidential term follows the path of the first term, he will not be concerned about international law, and will likely allow Israel to act with impunity in Gaza, as the Joe Biden administration did."

Professor Osama Khalil, head of the International Relations Program at Syracuse University in New York, agreed with the previous proposal, saying, "The Trump administration's policy towards Gaza will be in line with the preferences of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and even if a ceasefire is eventually reached, Israel will try to prevent the Palestinians from returning to their homes and obstruct any reconstruction efforts.

He added that there is unlikely to be any significant pressure from Washington to allow sufficient humanitarian aid into Gaza, and instead, the Trump administration will support Israel maintaining a security zone inside the Strip and its right to target strikes, and Trump will also support Israel’s resettlement and annexation of the West Bank.

Trump’s choices for supporters of Israel

Trump’s choices for his top aides on the Middle East file reflect a great convergence, to the point of matching, between the vision of Trump’s candidates and the Israeli narrative of the conflict.

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Ambassador David Mack, former US Assistant Secretary of State for Middle East Affairs, indicated that “Trump’s statements, in addition to many of his nominations for senior positions, indicate that he will be less prepared for two states for two peoples between the river and the sea.”

Mack added that the indications of Trump’s policy are truly bleak, especially since his choice for the position of US ambassador to Israel, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, is frustrating in light of Huckabee’s denial that the Palestinians are a nation and a people, and he also views East Jerusalem and the West Bank as parts of the land of Israel, and there is no room for negotiation regarding them.”

Trump's nominee for Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio, has consistently affirmed his strong support for Israel, making several notable statements regarding Gaza, calling for the elimination of Hamas following the October 7, 2023 attack, as well as opposing ceasefire efforts last November.

While Representative Michael Waltz, Trump's nominee for National Security Advisor, called in press statements to provide all the support Israel needs, Waltz demanded that Israel "finish the job" in addressing the security threats it faces.

Trump and the Future of Gaza's Governance

Neither Trump nor his senior aides have offered any vision for the future of the Gaza Strip's administration, and some experts describe the inability to predict what Trump will do as a political force and diplomatic asset that can be used to put severe pressure on the parties to the conflict. Observers have not ruled out that Trump will comply with Netanyahu's wishes, especially with regard to annexing parts of the Gaza Strip to Israel.

For his part, Charles Dunn, a former White House and State Department official, and current expert at the Arab Institute in Washington, and lecturer at George Washington University, told Al Jazeera Net that Trump might agree to "Israel remaining in northern Gaza, and preventing the former residents from returning to their homes." Source: Al Jazeera