"Democrats"... and an analysis of the reasons for the defeat

Democrats are still reeling from their shock defeat to Donald Trump yet again. As the blame game and the deep thinking continues, journalists and activists have written “post-mortems” to understand the causes of the defeat and the lessons to be learned from it. I would not be so skeptical about the usefulness of these analyses if they were not so narrowly focused on this election, as if these problems had suddenly emerged and were unlikely to be quickly ignored and forgotten. Any serious analysis that seeks to understand what happened on November 5th must begin by recognizing that the seeds of this “Democratic” defeat were planted decades ago. A few weeks ago, I wrote an article in which I assigned blame to specific actors, but now I want to look more deeply at the forces shaping our political landscape:

1- The profound political, social, cultural, and economic changes in American life have left millions of voters in a state of turmoil, insecurity, and anger. They are searching for certainty. Historically, peoples who have experienced such upheaval have tended toward forms of fundamentalism—finding certainty in a mythical and glorious past—or toward “strong leaders” who understand their suffering.

2- In addition to societal changes, dramatic transformational events have left deep scars on the American psyche. The terrorist attacks of September 11 and the failed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have left Americans feeling vulnerable as our standing in the world has diminished. Add to that the economic collapse of 2008 and 2009 that shattered faith in the American dream, repeated mass shootings, and the traumatic effects of COVID-19, and you have a society on the brink of collapse.

3- In this context, the response of political leadership to anxious voters becomes crucial. From the Nixon presidency to the present, a consistent thread in the Republican strategy has been to exploit the fears and insecurities of voters, initially targeting “black welfare recipients” or “criminals.” Trump has expanded the list of targets to include immigrants, especially Mexicans and Muslims, the “deep state,” and virtually any opposition to him—using “fear of the other” as a powerful weapon. Democrats have seemed disconnected from the challenges of most voters, and have failed to speak to their plight.

Instead, they talk about their programs, their progress on creating jobs, protecting the environment, defending women’s health care options, and advocating for a balanced approach to immigration. While these policies are right, their rhetoric makes them sound out of touch, condescending, or even reckless. Voters want candidates who understand their insecurities and anger.

Some “Democrats” have been effective at doing this: Barack Obama turned voters from fear to hope. Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden have shown voters their anger at income inequality and job losses, and promised to fight for them.

4- For decades, the Democrats were the party that supported economic justice for workers and believed in the role of government. While the Republicans were the party that protected the wealthy, declaring “lower taxes, less government.”

Today, as one Republican senator recently boasted, “We’ve become the party of the working class, and the Democrats have become the party of the elites.” That’s not true, but they’ve managed to create that perception. How? If you ask a Democrat today what the party stands for, you’ll get a lecture on a bunch of social issues with no thread connecting them or making them relevant to working-class voters. If you ask Republicans what they stand for, they won’t say tax cuts. Instead, they’ll recite Trump’s list of “enemies” and cultural issues that Democrats hate.

Or they will simply say, “Make America Great Again”—a catch-all phrase that conjures a return to past “glory,” resistance to cultural change, or defense of Trump. As a successful Republican TV ad put it, “She fights for them, he fights for us.”

5- In the past, political parties led real organizational politics from the local level, to the state level, to the national level. People belonged to parties.

Today, parties have become fundraising vehicles, amassing fortunes to pay the consultants who run campaigns and the parties themselves. While many voters contribute small sums, big donors contribute seven- and eight-figure sums. Democratic consultants are the same group that has run and corrupted politics for decades—playing the same rules with no awareness of a changing electorate. Unimaginative and risk-averse, they constrain candidates in what they can and cannot say.

Trump, on the other hand, has freed himself from the grip of Republican consultants, following his convictions and what voters saw as authentic. What happened in this election has been building for decades. Unless Democrats take a serious look at how they have lost touch with working-class voters and how they have allowed consultants to control their messaging and outreach, the November 5 debacle could be repeated.