Dr. Ahmed Shadid: Israel seeks to turn Syria into a weak, disarmed and internally torn state

Issam Makhoul: A regional and international plan aims to dismantle Syria, weaken it, and turn it into an arena for foreign influence

Nevin Abu Rahmoun: Targeting Syria is essentially targeting the Arab incubator of the Palestinian cause and resistance

Tawfiq Taama: Efforts to impose a new reality in Syria through a client regime or by completely dismantling the state

Rasim Obeidat: Targeting military capabilities and assassinating scientists aims to set Syria back 50 years

Wadih Abu Nassar: Israel seeks to maintain its regional superiority by weakening the capabilities of neighboring countries

Since December 7, the Israeli war machine has not stopped striking strategic scientific and military centers, in conjunction with the advances, penetrations, and control of vast areas of Syrian territory, in addition to what was announced about systematic and collective assassinations and kidnappings of Syrian scientists, exploiting the earthquake event represented by the fall of the Syrian capital Damascus into the hands of the armed opposition and the end of fifty-three years of rule by the regime of Bashar al-Assad and his father Hafez al-Assad.

If the pretext of the occupying Israeli state for launching repeated attacks on Syria is that it is targeting Syrian or Iranian military sites or supply lines for Hezbollah during the era of the deposed president Bashar al-Assad, then what is its pretext for targeting the entire capabilities of the Syrian state and its army, in the most extensive targeting operations it has launched in its history, after the fall of the regime and the opposition taking over the reins of power, which remained silent about these attacks during the first days, to submit an official complaint to the United Nations against the Israeli violations.

Analysts and writers who spoke to “Y” confirmed that Israel is targeting the capabilities of the Syrian state, not the regime, and that it is implementing plans based on occupying more Syrian lands and extending its control over them, and stripping Syria of all elements of military and scientific power, on the one hand, and on the other hand, fragmenting Syria into warring sectarian entities, so that Israel remains the only controlling power in the region, in preparation for consolidating its plan called the “New Middle East.”

Israel is an advanced military base for Western colonialism

Dr. Ahmed Shadid, professor of international relations and researcher in Israeli affairs, said that since December 8, after the Syrian president left the country, Israel has been seeking to target the Syrian army and its military capabilities, noting that these attacks include the three sectors: land, sea, and air.

He explained that the attacks specifically targeted naval fleets in northern Syria, especially in the Tartus area, in addition to armored vehicles, tanks and ground equipment, including Republican Guard units and other military divisions. The attacks also included air force airports, such as Mezzeh Airport and others in the Qamishli area and northeastern Syria.

He added that Israel aims, through these operations, to turn Syria into a demilitarized state, where only individual weapons such as Kalashnikovs and automatic rifles remain.

He pointed out that the destruction of the Syrian air defenses allowed Israel freedom of air movement over Damascus and the surrounding areas, including the use of helicopters that carried out landing operations in areas such as Qalamoun, on the Syrian-Lebanese border.

Stirring up sectarian and religious conflicts

Shadid stressed that this behavior reflects Israel's role as an advanced military base for Western colonialism, especially the United States of America, which seeks to: transform Syria into a demilitarized state, prevent the establishment of a strong central state that preserves Syria's unity, and pave the way for a civil war by weakening the Syrian state and inciting sectarian and religious conflicts, as some areas have witnessed.

He stressed that this approach led to the violation of Syrian geography, as the Israeli occupation army penetrated deep into Syrian territory for a distance of up to 25 kilometers in some areas, such as the Druze-majority village of Hadar, which was previously a Syrian military base subject to the Baath Party and Syrian forces, but is now under Israeli control.

Shadid pointed out that Israel seeks, through these operations, to transform Syria into a weak, disarmed, and internally torn state, in order to achieve long-term strategic goals that serve its interests and the interests of its international supporters.

A war that targeted Syria as a country and a state, not the regime

In turn, Issam Makhoul, director of the Emile Touma Center for Palestinian and Israeli Studies, said that what has been happening in Syria for more than a decade cannot be reduced to popular demands for reform and democracy, but rather is part of a regional and international plan aimed at dismantling Syria, weakening it as a state, and turning it into an open arena for foreign influence.

Makhoul pointed out that the forces that led the change in Syria are the same ones that led the process of destroying the country. Despite the legitimacy of the popular demands for freedom, democracy and improving living conditions, these demands have turned into tools in a global terrorist war, the real target of which was not the Syrian regime, but Syria as a homeland and an independent state.

He added: "Regional and international powers, such as Israel and the United States, used the popular movement to advance their agendas, targeting the state's military structure, most notably the Syrian army, which is considered a symbol of national unity in the country."

Makhoul explained that the Syrian army, as a mandatory national army that reflects the diversity of Syrian society, was a primary target of international plans.

He stressed that there are systematic efforts to dismantle this national institution, which paves the way for turning Syria into a weak state unable to defend itself.

He explained that Israel, with direct American support, targeted Syrian military sites and greatly weakened the army's capabilities.

He pointed to the role of other regional powers, such as Türkiye, in penetrating Syrian territory, which deepens the state of disintegration.

Reshaping the political map of the Middle East

Makhoul believes that the real project is to eliminate Syria as a unified country and transform it into a group of small states or areas of influence subject to the control of major powers. He considers the decision to dissolve the Syrian army to be a dangerous step towards transforming the country into a militia state, in which factions fight for power, which opens the door to continued foreign intervention.

He added: "This plan is not a product of the moment, but rather part of a long-term strategy aimed at reshaping the Middle East in a way that serves the interests of Israel and the United States."

He pointed out that this project is being implemented in partnership with reactionary Arab regimes that play a supportive role in this agenda.

Makhoul pointed to the coincidence between the war in Syria and other wars in the region, such as the war on Gaza, as evidence of the existence of an integrated strategy aimed at reshaping the political map of the Middle East.

He stressed that the forces participating in these wars exploit every opportunity to expand their influence at the expense of the Arab peoples.

He warned of the danger of the next stage if this plan continues in Syria, considering that targeting the Syrian army, which represents the unity of the country, aims to end any hope of building a strong and independent Syria.

Makhoul called for adherence to Syria's national and ethnic unity, and rejection of all attempts aimed at dismantling the country and turning it into an arena of open conflict for the interests of the major powers.

Israel's ambitions for gas and natural resources in Syria

For her part, political analyst Nevin Abu Rahmon said: Targeting Syria is essentially targeting the Arab incubator of the Palestinian cause and resistance.

Abu Rahmon pointed out that Israeli ambitions in Syria are clear, extending from gas and natural resources to its strategic position, as it is a gateway to changing the features of the entire region.

Abu Rahmon added: “Israel is exploiting what it describes as a ‘golden opportunity’ to carry out repeated strikes on high-quality weapons depots in Syria, in addition to strengthening its position in southern Syria. These steps are part of a strategy aimed at undermining the 1974 Disengagement Agreement on the Golan, which was signed in Geneva.”

She said: "This means that there are no red lines in violating Syrian sovereignty whenever it wants."

Abu Rahmoun pointed out that Israel's occupation of Mount Hermon on the Syrian side, after official approval from the "cabinet", is a first step in a broader plan to restore its occupation role under the pretext of establishing a buffer zone and warding off security threats.

Turkish ambitions in Syria

Abu Rahmon said: From here we begin a new phase in shaping the features of the region, pointing to Türkiye, as one of the central players in the Syrian arena, which has its own ambitions in the country.

She saw that the Israeli aggression is taking place with absolute flexibility and with the implicit blessing of regional and international parties, whose interests intersect in undermining Syria's status and future.

Abu Rahmoun said: “The only constant in the region is Israel. In light of all the successive developments in the region at the regional level, especially Syria, Israel appears to be steadfast and moving forward with its project and seizing a golden opportunity to try to reap the fruits of what it has worked for. And with all ease, it continues its aggression against Syria.”

She stressed that Israel is actually making a geopolitical change, explaining that the so-called "New Middle East" is no longer a slogan, nor are Israel's intentions hidden, but quite the opposite, its intentions are clear in its ambitions and desires towards "Greater Israel."

She pointed out that it remains certain that Israel is confidently engineering the features of the region and the features of the conflict in its aggressive and expansionist actions in the West Bank, Gaza and Syria, and that it may later become other regional Arab targets.

Abu Rahmon concluded by saying: “The other constant in the Israeli efforts is that they are aimed at changing the mood of the Middle East, where there is no resistance, no incubator, and no Palestinian cause.”

Israeli attacks are a blatant assault on a sovereign state.

For his part, Tawfiq Taama, a specialist in international and regional relations, said: “The Israeli attacks on Syria represent a blatant assault on a sovereign state,” stressing that these violations constitute a breach of international laws.

Taama said: "Regardless of what happened in Syria from the internal conflict between the Syrian regime and the armed opposition, Syria is still a recognized state and a member of the United Nations, and Israel has no right to attack its sovereignty."

He explained that Israel adopts a policy of continuous aggression against countries that it sees as a threat to its security, pointing to its daily targeting of Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and even Syria.

Taama considered that Israel exploited the current political circumstances in Syria, especially after the Syrian army retreated and withdrew from the border, to impose a new fait accompli by controlling Syrian lands.

"Israel will not leave these territories easily. It will likely impose conditions for withdrawal in the future, in exchange for concessions from the new Syrian leadership or the next transitional government, if an agreement is reached," Taama added.

He also pointed out that Israel launched repeated air strikes targeting Syrian military capabilities, destroying nearly 80% of them.

He raised a question about the reason for the Syrian failure to respond to these attacks, explaining that "the current transitional situation and the difficulty of the regime or the opposition possessing sufficient military capabilities make it impossible to confront Israel at this stage."

Israel exploits critical transition period

Taama stressed that Israel is exploiting this critical period to launch concentrated strikes on Syrian military barracks and weapons depots, with the aim of eliminating the Syrian army's defensive capabilities and imposing a new reality on the ground.

He said: "These attacks are not surprising from Israel, which has a long history of violating the sovereignty of states and waging wars to achieve its expansionist goals."

He pointed out that Israel seeks to destabilize Syria, but rather works to fragment it and turn it into small and weak states. This trend is evident through its support for the establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Syria, and encouraging Kurdish secession from Syria. In addition, Israel seeks to support the establishment of a Druze state in southern Syria, especially after occupying lands in the Daraa region and approaching 20 kilometers from the capital, Damascus.

He pointed out that Israel's plans to divide Syria aim to create multiple entities: a state for Sunnis, another for Kurds, and a third for Shiites, so that Syria is torn into warring parts. This Israeli strategy is based on the principle of preventing any state bordering Israel from achieving stability and unity, as Israel believes that the stability of a state like Syria does not serve its interests, especially since Syria is a neighboring state. Therefore, Israel is working to thwart any Syrian unity experiment, whether by supporting internal divisions or imposing external pressures.

Formal complaint to the United Nations

Taama stated that Israel seeks to impose a new reality in Syria, either through a client regime that submits to its dictates and accepts normalization with it, or by completely dismantling the Syrian state.

On the other hand, Taama said that the Syrian transitional government has filed an official complaint to the United Nations against Israeli violations, which led to international condemnation by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and a number of Western and Arab countries. However, it seems that the ability of this transitional government to confront Israel is very limited, given its primary focus on internal affairs, ensuring a peaceful transfer of power, achieving national unity, and rebuilding what was destroyed by the war and Israeli violations.

Taama concluded by saying, "At the current stage, the new Syrian leadership does not have the ability to confront Israel militarily, but it is trying to rely on international institutions, such as the United Nations, to raise the Syrian voice and document the violations."

Destroying Syrian military and armament capabilities

For his part, political analyst Rasem Obeidat said that Israel seeks, through the continuous Israeli raids on Syria and the occupation in southern Syria, which has extended to more than 350 square kilometers, to achieve a set of goals.

Obaidat explained, "The most prominent of these goals is the destruction of Syria's heavy and medium military and armament capabilities, including tanks, warplanes, air defenses, radars, airports, warships, and ports, in addition to ballistic missiles and cruise missiles."

He added: "Israel also aims to make Syria a demilitarized state, so that it cannot pose what Israel considers a 'danger' to its security and the security of the northern settlers."

Obeidat pointed out that among the Israeli goals is also cutting off and closing the borders between Syria and Lebanon, with the aim of preventing the flow and smuggling of weapons to Hezbollah through the Syrian-Lebanese crossings, in addition to excavations in Mount Hermon and the creation of deep trenches to cut off communication between the two sides.

He stressed that Israel seeks to annex the occupied Golan Heights permanently and consider it part of the occupying state with American approval, recalling former US President Donald Trump's announcement of the annexation of the Golan Heights in 2017, while Israel had announced its annexation since 1981.

Increase in settlements in the occupied Golan

Obaidat explained that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is talking about increasing the number of settlements in the occupied Golan, with huge budgets allocated to develop these settlements.

In another context, Obeidat said, "Israel aims to establish a security belt in the southern region by controlling the buffer zone for a long period. It also seeks to have influence and presence in the Syrian decision by supporting the project of establishing a Druze state in southern Syria, despite the Syrian Druze rejecting the idea of separation from their homeland."

Obaidat pointed out Israel's efforts to communicate with the Kurdish state project, which both the United States and Israel seek to establish in northern Syria, so that it extends to Iraqi and Turkish territories.

He stated that "Israel is working to establish what is known as the 'David's Corridor' through the American Al-Tanf base, located at the Syrian-Jordanian-Iraqi border triangle, to enhance the connection and coordination with the future Kurdish state."

Obaidat stressed that Israel's targeting of Syrian military capabilities and the assassination of scientists and researchers aims to set Syria back 50 years and open its airspace to Israeli attacks against Iran. Israel also seeks to move Syria from the axis of resistance to the Arab normalization alliance.

The strongest party in the region

For his part, Wadih Abu Nassar, an expert on Israeli affairs, said that Israel is interested in remaining the strongest party in the region, and to achieve this it is not interested in allowing any other party, whether it is one of its opponents or even one of its potential friends, to become strong.

Abu Nassar added: "This matter is not limited to Syria only, but extends to include Israeli fears of the growing capabilities of the Egyptian army, which was expressed by some leaders of the Israeli right who believe that these capabilities may be used later against Israel."

He pointed out that there are some suggestions on how to curb this military build-up by putting pressure on the arms suppliers to the Egyptian army.

Abu Nassar explained that Israel is not interested in neighboring countries, or even regional countries, being strong enough to challenge Israel. Therefore, Israel exploited what happened in Syria to strike the capabilities of the Syrian army, stressing that Israel will continue this approach, whether to weaken Syria specifically, or to strike Hezbollah's supply lines, or to send messages to all parties in the region, especially Iran.