Expectations are rising that a ceasefire and exchange deal in the Gaza Strip is imminent, amid increasing American signals indicating pressure to achieve this goal, including recent statements by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.

In separate interviews with "Ya", political writers and analysts believe that the Biden administration is striving to achieve this deal before Republican candidate Donald Trump returns to the White House and takes over the reins of power, but Netanyahu will not give him the opportunity to achieve any accomplishment.

Despite the absolute American support for Israel, writers and analysts point out that the American administration has become more strict towards Netanyahu's policies, which reflect blatant attempts to achieve personal and political gains.

They point out that pressure is increasing on Israel to end the war, especially with the escalating international criticism due to the repercussions of the war on the people of the Gaza Strip, which has accelerated talk of concluding the deal, while Sullivan's statements come as an attempt to whitewash Israel's criminal image and that it is not obstructing the deal, as well as an attempt to extend a lifeline to Netanyahu, especially after the International Criminal Court's decision to issue two arrest warrants against him and against former War Minister Yoav Galant.

Multiple messages aimed at improving Israel's image

Writer and political analyst Dr. Ahmed Rafiq Awad believes that the statements of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan regarding the imminent conclusion of a swap deal in Gaza carry multiple messages, the essence of which is to improve Israel’s image and throw a lifeline to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in addition to achieving personal gains for Sullivan.

According to Awad, Sullivan seeks through his statements to whitewash Israel before the world and show Netanyahu that he is not responsible for delaying or obstructing the deal. Instead, Sullivan is trying to portray Israel as the party that is making efforts and showing a willingness to reach an agreement, while blaming Hamas as the main obstacle to progress, despite international and regional pressure on it.

Awad points out that these statements reflect an American attempt to present Netanyahu in a positive light, at a time when he is facing increasing international criticism over the war in Gaza.

Coercing the Palestinian people instead of negotiating with them

Awad says: “Sullivan wants to show that Israel is the responsible and initiating party, although the truth indicates that both parties, the Israelis and the Americans, do not want to enter into a real deal that leads to binding understandings, but rather aim to subjugate Hamas and the Palestinian people instead of negotiating with them.”

Awad believes that Sullivan's statements also have personal dimensions, as the American official seeks to improve his personal image and secure a future position in the American administration or in the private sector after the end of his current term.

Awad explains that "Sullivan is trying to present himself as an active and committed figure in Middle East issues, not only to support the current administration, but also to market himself as a figure capable of managing complex strategic and security files."

Awad believes that Sullivan's recent visit to Israel and his meetings with Israeli officials were not limited to discussing a prisoner exchange deal or a ceasefire, but rather addressed security and strategic issues that go beyond the current Biden administration.

Netanyahu will not give the Biden administration any political achievement

Regarding Netanyahu's position on the deal, Awad believes that the Israeli Prime Minister will not give the Biden administration any political achievement, noting that Netanyahu prefers to reach any agreement or major deal under the Trump administration, on whom the Israeli right is betting to achieve long-term strategic gains.

“Netanyahu realizes that any concession or progress in the deal in favor of the outgoing Biden administration could be interpreted as a free gift, so if he is going to enter into this deal, it will be when Trump takes office in the White House,” Awad says.

On the domestic front, despite repeated threats from Netanyahu's coalition partners, such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, to withdraw from the government if the deal is completed, Awad asserts that these threats are not serious.

Netanyahu's coalition looks largely stable

Awad explains that “Netanyahu’s government coalition seems largely stable, especially after Gideon Sa’ar joined, and despite Ben-Gvir and Smotrich’s threats to resign, these threats do not have much impact. Smotrich, for example, knows that any early elections could mean losing his political position and perhaps even leaving the Knesset.”

Awad believes that the biggest challenge facing Netanyahu is not the stability of his government coalition, but rather the growing threats he faces from the International Criminal Court, which could expose him to international prosecution for crimes committed in Gaza. Despite this, recent opinion polls indicate that Likud continues to lead its competitors, which strengthens Netanyahu’s position as the undisputed leader of the right-wing camp.

Real pressure to get the deal done.

Writer and political analyst Majed Hadeeb confirms that a prisoner exchange deal between the resistance and Israel is closer than ever, pointing out that the recent statements of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan are not just a political maneuver, but rather reflect real pressure to achieve this goal.

Hadib explains that there are several reasons that are pushing the US administration to accelerate this process, the most prominent of which is Washington’s desire to end the file before President-elect Donald Trump assumes power again.

Hadib points out that the administration of President Joe Biden recently asked Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to intervene to pressure Hamas and contribute to the success of the mediation, as Turkish efforts have already borne fruit, as is evident from the intensive visits made by American officials to Ankara, led by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who held intensive meetings with the Turkish president and Turkish officials in this regard.

America's Deep State Realizes It's Time to End the War

Hadeeb explains that the deep state in the United States, for its part, has come to realize that the time has come to end the war, especially since Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has exhausted almost all available options to continue the fighting, in light of his lack of more time to procrastinate. This was evident in the falsity of the timetables that Netanyahu presented to the American administration regarding achieving the goals of the war in Gaza.

Hadeeb believes that the recent approval by the Israeli cabinet to continue efforts to complete the prisoner exchange deal and give the green light to its completion reflects an Israeli attempt to please the American administration, whether the current or the next, as Israel sees this as an appropriate moment to conclude the deal, after it succeeded in restoring part of the deterrent power that was eroded following the October 7 operation.

Hadeeb points out that the proposed deal, which is presented in stages, is what Netanyahu has been seeking from the beginning, to give him the opportunity to return to military operations whenever Israel's interests require it.

Hadeeb believes that Netanyahu is still hinting at the possibility of intervening in Gaza if Hamas regains control of the Strip, whether administratively, militarily or security-wise.

Establishing a comprehensive political solution to the Palestinian issue

On the Arab level, Hadib points out that the Egyptian and Qatari efforts, supported by Saudi Arabia, are not only an entry point to stop the war on Gaza, but also lay the foundation for reconsidering a comprehensive political solution to the Palestinian issue.

Hadib believes that Saudi Arabia now sees itself as a pivotal center in the region and seeks to lead an Arab-regional axis in which Israel participates.

On the other hand, Hadeeb points out that the latest statement by Hamas, issued on the 37th anniversary of its founding, reflects a shift in the movement’s position, as it has begun to focus on the necessity of stopping the war on Gaza without adhering to the conditions that were considered red lines that could not be waived.

On the international level, Hadeeb explains that the recent vote in the UN General Assembly, and the Security Council’s call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, reflect growing international anger towards the US administration due to its absolute support for Israel in its war of extermination against the Palestinians.

Hadeeb points to the two summonses issued against Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant, along with calls by some countries to activate the decisions of the International Criminal Court, as one of the reasons for progress towards the deal.

Hadeeb believes that the US administration has become more strict towards Netanyahu, who has clearly not aimed to release the hostages as much as he seeks to impose new facts on the ground in Gaza that serve the project of the extreme Israeli right.

Netanyahu's policies are exposed to the Americans

Hadeeb points out that Netanyahu's policies have become exposed to both American administrations, whether the current Biden administration or the upcoming Trump administration.

Hadib confirms that American pressure on Netanyahu to end the war is also linked to the success of Israel's plans to strike Iranian strategic or nuclear facilities.

Hadib believes that Washington will not allow Israel to implement these plans without stopping the war on Gaza, to ensure the mobilization of international support for Israel if it carries out its strike on Iran.

On the domestic front, Hadeeb points out that members of the Knesset from the extreme right have begun to realize that Netanyahu's government is creating controversial issues to preserve the government coalition, even if that harms Israel, its security, and the unity of the Jewish people.

Hadeeb refers to the statements of the leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, Avigdor Lieberman, who stressed that the continuation of Netanyahu's policies threatens the unity of Israelis and the reputation of the state.

He also points to recent opinion polls and pressure from the Israeli street, which are now reinforcing the idea of a ceasefire, and it has become clear that the continuation of the war threatens Netanyahu's continued rule and increases the risk of international legal action against him and senior Israeli officials.

Media maneuver aimed at achieving political goals

Writer and political analyst Daoud Kuttab believes that the statements of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan regarding the imminent conclusion of a deal regarding the Gaza Strip may be merely a media maneuver aimed at achieving political goals rather than reflecting a tangible reality.

The writers confirm that the American and Israeli record is full of similar statements, which often turn out to be false later, as such statements may be based on Israeli assurances provided by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s team, but he points out that Netanyahu and his team have a bad reputation for procrastination, delay and even misleading, which makes it difficult to trust such statements.

In the same context, writers believe that the United States often resorts to using the media as a tool to pressure different parties.

Writers point out that what we have witnessed over the past year reflects the failure of these attempts to achieve tangible results. According to writers, American media pressure has become a desperate strategy that is useless in confronting the complexities of the political and security situation, whether in Israel or the region.

An old tool used by Netanyahu to relieve pressure

Regarding the repeated threats from Netanyahu's coalition partners to withdraw, writers believe that this scenario has become an old tool used repeatedly by Netanyahu to ease pressure, whether internal from the Israelis or external from the United States.

Writers confirm that such threats do not carry any real weight on the ground, but are rather used as a means to prolong the crisis and escape from making fateful decisions.

Writers question the seriousness of American and Israeli statements about any tangible progress regarding the Gaza Strip.

Writers believe that without taking actual decisions on the ground, evasion and procrastination are still the most prominent features of Netanyahu's policies, which makes achieving a real breakthrough in the issue of concluding a deal in Gaza a distant matter in light of the current data.

Netanyahu may trade the deal for policies that serve the occupation

Journalist and political analyst Nabhan Khreisha believes that the statements of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan about the imminent conclusion of a prisoner exchange deal between Israel and Hamas reflect the desires and dreams of US President Joe Biden's administration more than they reflect political reality.

Khreisha points out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not intend to give the Biden administration, which represents the Democratic Party, this political achievement, but rather prefers to save it for Donald Trump, the Republican candidate who will enter the White House in 35 days.

According to Khreisha, Netanyahu may trade the deal for policies that serve the Israeli occupation in the West Bank, Gaza, or even in the region in general.

Khreisha asserts that during the 15-month war on Gaza, the Biden administration did not show seriousness in reaching a real ceasefire that would pave the way for implementing a prisoner exchange deal, and this reflects its lack of seriousness.

Khreisha points out that the United States has used its veto power more than once in the Security Council to prevent the issuance of resolutions calling for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Khreisha criticizes Washington's policy of hypocrisy towards the war, as it called on the one hand to avoid killing Palestinian civilians and provide them with humanitarian aid, while on the other hand it continued to supply Israel with weapons and ammunition that were used to kill the civilians it called for protecting.

Khreisha points out that Netanyahu is dealing with the issue of prisoner exchange and the war on Gaza from a purely internal political perspective.

Khreisha quotes former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger as saying: “Israel does not have foreign policies, but rather internal ones,” to confirm that Netanyahu’s calculations are primarily aimed at strengthening his grip on power.

Khreisha confirms that Israel, since Netanyahu's return to power at the end of 2022, has entered into the most complex crises in its modern history, both internally and regionally.

According to Khreisha, after his popularity fell to its lowest levels during the first months of the war on Gaza and Lebanon, Netanyahu was able to regain his position by intensifying his military operations that left massive destruction in Gaza, affecting people, trees and stones, in addition to his military escalation in Lebanon. With this military performance, he ignored the demands of the Biden administration, which tried to pressure him through proposals related to a ceasefire in three stages, which Netanyahu rejected outright.

Netanyahu's strategy: "playing for time"

Khreisha describes Netanyahu's strategy as "playing for time," as he adopted a method of procrastination and delay in his dealings with the American administration.

Khreisha points out that Netanyahu sees himself as similar to British leader Winston Churchill, but his opponents see Churchill as a real decision-maker, unlike Netanyahu, who relies on political maneuvering to remain in power.

With Netanyahu stalling, Khreisheh sees Sullivan’s statements about a prisoner swap being close to being reached as more “wishful” than realistic. Khreisheh points out that Netanyahu, who has refrained from helping the Democratic Biden administration during its time in office, will not give it any political gains before it leaves office in about a month.

As for the threats by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, partners in the government coalition, to withdraw from the government if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza, Khreisha describes them as “media messages” directed at their voters rather than real messages targeting Netanyahu.

Ben Gvir and Smotrich's positions...an internal game

Khreisha points out that Ben-Gvir and Smotrich's positions largely match Netanyahu's, making these threats part of an internal political game aimed at media consumption.

Khreisha believes that the far-right parties participating in the Israeli government will not actually go as far as to overthrow the government, even if they disagree on some details, because their presence in this coalition represents a golden opportunity to implement their social and religious programs, in addition to expanding settlements in the West Bank and exploiting the situation in Syria and southern Lebanon.

Khreisha stresses that these parties realize that toppling the government means demolishing the temple of the ruling coalition over their heads, which is something they do not want.

Khreisha asserts that Netanyahu is still maneuvering to buy time and ensure his continued stay in power, while the Biden administration continues its desperate attempts to achieve any progress in the prisoner exchange file. However, political data indicate that Sullivan’s statements do not go beyond being American desires, in light of the complexity of the internal Israeli scene and the conflict of interests between the extremist parties that control the scene.

The current war bears clear American fingerprints.

Writer and political analyst Sari Samour asserts that the recent statements of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan reflect the reality that there is a breakthrough in the path of the deal to end the Israeli war on Gaza, but this deal is not necessarily imminent or just around the corner.

Samour points out that the administration of US President Joe Biden is well aware that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not want it to achieve any political achievement as Biden's presidential term approaches its end.

According to Samour, although the current war bears clear American fingerprints, as it is fully supported politically and militarily, the Biden administration has the ability to end it even in the last moments of his term, but it is not exerting sufficient pressure on Israel, but rather prefers "soft" intervention through its various tools.

Sullivan's statements take the form of absolute support for Netanyahu

In light of Netanyahu's procrastination over the deal, Samour sees Sullivan's statements as taking on the character of absolute support for Netanyahu, assuring him that the United States stands by him and supports him in every possible way.

These statements, according to Samour, come at a time when Netanyahu is facing internal and external pressures, including arrest warrants from the International Criminal Court. Although the international system is full of contradictions and hypocrisy, these warrants cause Netanyahu an embarrassment that cannot be ignored, even if it is protocol-related.

Samour believes that the American messages aim to reassure Netanyahu that Washington's support for him will not wane, which will allow him to continue his current policies without fear of immediate legal or political repercussions.

Regarding the internal situation in Israel, Samour explains that the issue is not only related to the risk of the government coalition disintegrating, but also extends to the role of the Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and the Minister of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich, who lack political experience and the rules of the game within the deep Israeli establishment.

Samour points out that Netanyahu attaches more importance to the movement represented by these ministers than to their personalities, as they are used as a front to achieve certain goals.

Samour asserts that the deep state in Israel does not hesitate to bypass ministers who hinder its interests, and therefore, if Israel’s interest requires getting rid of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich to facilitate the deal or any strategic move, this will be done easily, because they are considered by Netanyahu to be a “scarecrow” that can be dispensed with at any moment.

Netanyahu fears domestic repercussions of the "day after the war"

Samour points out that the main reason behind Netanyahu's insistence on continuing the war is not only to avoid trials and accountability in the Israeli judiciary, but also his fear of the repercussions of the "day after the war" phase in Israel.

Samour points out that stopping the war will reveal the extent of the losses incurred by Israel, whether economically or in terms of its international reputation, and will also show the extent of the internal division that could develop into internal fighting, which directly threatens Netanyahu's political future.

Samour asserts that Netanyahu's concern about the post-war phase is pushing him to adopt a procrastination approach, which the Biden administration is aware of, but it is not exerting sufficient pressure to end the war, leaving the region in a state of ambiguity and instability.

Continued US support for Israel

Writer and political analyst Samer Anabtawi believes that the US administration, since the beginning of the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, has been practicing a policy of maneuvering to support Israel, which has allowed the occupation forces to continue committing massacres against Palestinian civilians under American cover.

Anbatawi explains that the US administration defended and supported Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Galant after the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants against them, which reflects continued US support for Israel.

Anabtawi believes that the administration of US President Joe Biden is currently promoting the idea of concluding a "deal" that includes stopping the war, even if temporarily, with the aim of achieving a major diplomatic achievement to be recorded for it before the end of its term. However, Netanyahu is ignoring these efforts and is practicing procrastination, at a time when the Israelis prefer to continue their aggression on Gaza, to achieve strategic goals, most notably displacing the residents of the northern Gaza Strip and implementing settlement projects there.

Anbatawi points out that the deep state in the United States is seeking to pressure Israel to reach an agreement before Donald Trump returns to the White House, as happened in the Lebanese file, where understandings were reached with clear American pressure.

Weak and ineffective US pressure

However, Anabtawi explains that this pressure is still weak and not effective enough to force Netanyahu to move forward with a deal.

Anbatawi asserts that the US administration is leaving room for Israel to continue carrying out massacres against the Palestinians with the aim of forcing the resistance to surrender completely, thus achieving the goals of the Israeli occupation on the ground.

On the other hand, Anabtawi believes that Netanyahu is facing increasing internal pressure to complete the prisoner exchange deal, amidst the escalation of voices inside Israel calling for an end to the war.

In contrast, Anabtawi points to repeated threats from ministers in his government to dismantle the government coalition if a deal is reached, but their threats do not worry Netanyahu, as he agrees with them and prefers to continue the war and stick to his settlement plans.

Netanyahu seeks to implement large settlement projects

Anbatawi believes that Netanyahu does not want to conclude any agreement at the present time, but rather seeks to implement large settlement projects, not only in the Gaza Strip, but also in the West Bank, with the aim of strengthening the occupation’s control over the Palestinian territories, amidst the ongoing war that provides him with cover to implement these plans.

Anbatawi points out that the current situation reveals the intersection of interests between Israel and the US administration, which prefers to achieve diplomatic gains at the expense of the Palestinian people, without exerting real pressure on the occupation to stop its crimes or change its aggressive policies.