Where did the Arab and Muslim votes go in the US presidential elections?

The votes in the US presidential election held on November 5 have not yet been officially counted, but it is possible to roughly predict the voting trends of the Arab and Muslim community in this major election, based on opinion polls and some interviews with a significant and influential number of members of this community.

In general, Trump's sweep of all 50 US states, both in the Electoral College and in the general vote, indicates that Trump has been largely successful in obtaining the votes of communities and minorities in the United States, which was the preserve of Democrats in previous elections. For example, in the previous presidential elections, 75% of Jews, Arabs and Muslims gave their votes to Biden, and in some cities such as Dearborn, Michigan, Biden won 90% of the Arab and Muslim votes against Trump.

In general, the voting system in the United States (the electoral college points system) does not give significant weight to the votes of ethnic and religious minorities, including Arabs and Jews. However, in some states with a demographic weight, such as New York, which is home to more than two million Jews, or Michigan, which is home to about 300,000 Arabs and Muslims, these minorities can have an influential voice, especially if the voting percentages between the Democratic and Republican candidates are close. This is almost what happened in the previous presidential elections, as Trump won Michigan by about ten thousand votes in 2016 when he defeated Hillary Clinton, and then Trump lost the state by about one hundred thousand votes to Biden in 2020.

In fact, it seems that the golden rule that the Democrats relied on in the American presidential elections, considering that the votes of minorities, including Arab and Muslim ones, would inevitably go to the Democrats, has begun to crack, and there are several factors that have led to the reversal of this rule, the most important of which are:

First: The poor economic conditions that Americans went through during the Biden administration, as tax rates and inflation rose very significantly, leading to the spread of poverty and unemployment. In return, Trump promised voters to reduce taxes, reduce inflation, and increase jobs, which is something they witnessed during the first Trump administration.

Second: The continuation of the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, and the expansion of the war in the Middle East region under the weak Biden administration, which was unable to stop the killing of civilians in Gaza, but on the contrary, provided Israel with the largest strategic military arsenal that Israel had not obtained in any previous presidential term. In contrast, President Trump, who appeared strong and confident, promised to end the war and achieve stability. In this context, a campaign was launched in Arab and Islamic circles a year ago under the slogan "Abandon Biden", because he was held responsible for the Gaza war and did not stop it.

This campaign, led by several Arab imams and activists, quickly morphed into the “Ditch Harris” campaign.

Third: A significant percentage of Arab and Muslim votes went to Green Party candidate Jill Stein despite the impossibility of her winning, as a punishment for the Biden administration and Trump’s bad history in dealing with the Palestinian issue. This was absolutely in Trump’s favor due to the nature of the vote counting system. In this context, NBC News forecasts show that thanks to the anger of the Arab and Muslim community over the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of Israel’s aggression on Gaza, Trump was able to win a majority of the votes in Dearborn – 47% compared to 28% for Vice President Kamala Harris, who only beat Green Party candidate Jill Stein by six percentage points.

Fourth: A large percentage of the Arab and Muslim community refrained from giving their votes to Kamala Harris for fear that she would win and pass a law allowing freedom to change gender under the age of 18. This is a very sensitive issue for Arab and Muslim conservatives. On the other hand, this issue is absolutely rejected by conservative Republicans.

Fifth: Trump's interest in minorities has increased significantly, in contrast to his behavior in his first term. He has organized more than 15 campaign meetings among Arabs and Muslims, and allowed them to participate and speak at these festivals. One of the most prominent examples of this is Trump's personal attendance to receive direct support from the Yemeni mayor of Hamtramck. Trump's campaign leaders have also personally contacted many cadres of the Arab and Islamic communities, some of whom were fortunate enough to meet Trump in person. On the other hand, Trump's Arab son-in-law, Massad Boulos, is effectively coordinating Trump's electoral activity in communicating with Arab and Muslim Americans. This effective effort contributed to the formation of the "Arab Americans for Trump" movement, a small Arab lobby that emerged in Michigan in favor of Trump's nomination and victory.

In fact, our previous analysis shows that Arabs and Muslims bet on Trump’s victory because they felt he was able to end the hot and important files in their public affairs, such as the Israeli aggression and others. However, the important question remains whether this bet will succeed in influencing Trump to change his policy that is completely biased towards Israel and of course his policy of liquidating the Palestinian cause, which was tried during his first term in office. The answer to this big question will be determined over the next four years, although initial indications point to the exact opposite, especially after the Trump campaign invited the Settlements Council to attend the president’s inauguration ceremony.