Netanyahu may exploit the "transitional period" to strike Iranian nuclear facilities

It is not surprising that Netanyahu, despite the complex relations between them, would exploit Biden’s need to prove his Zionism to Trump on the one hand, and to leave some legacy that he can be proud of after the shame of the war of extermination that he helped fuel on the other hand.

Netanyahu's bet on Trump's victory was right, but both want Biden himself, during the transitional period, to finish the job and launch a direct strike or with American military support against Iran's nuclear facilities, ending the war and bringing Netanyahu to the "absolute victory" he aspires to, and fulfilling Trump's saying that he "ends wars, does not start them", after leaving him the task of raising the banner of peace.

Bloomberg reported that Trump, in a phone call between them last month, gave Netanyahu the mandate to do what was necessary with "Iran and its extensions," in contradiction to Biden's approach and calls for restraint and increased food aid to the Palestinians in Gaza.

Maariv also quoted a senior source in the security cabinet as saying that the transitional period would provide Israel with an opportunity to act against the Iranian nuclear project, which Netanyahu sees as an existential threat, noting that Israel’s success in striking Hezbollah’s capabilities and destroying part of the Iranian air defense system increased Netanyahu’s optimism, who said in a speech he gave on October 26 that Israel now has greater freedom of movement against its enemies than ever before, while the newspaper quoted one of Netanyahu’s former advisors as saying that Netanyahu knows how to diagnose major events and exploit the right opportunity.

While some warn that Biden will exploit the transition period to punish Israel, as Obama did in 2016 when he refrained from vetoing a Security Council resolution condemning Israel, the prevailing view is that Biden would be more willing to leave behind a legacy to be proud of, rather than enter history as a president who was ousted from the election race and failed to bring his vice president to power.

For our part, we do not rule this out either, especially in light of the unparalleled enthusiasm shown by Biden in supporting Israel to confirm his Zionism, which he expressed verbally on more than one occasion, in addition to his no less enthusiastic desire to mobilize battleships and fleets and fan the flames of wars in the East and West alike, which was manifested in the expansion of the circle of war in Ukraine, and in Palestine and Lebanon, perhaps in an attempt to strip him of the label of the old and weak president, which stuck to him and caused his ouster from the presidential race.

In contrast, Trump, contrary to popular belief, did not witness any significant armed conflicts during his previous presidency. Despite his withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement, he followed the path of economic sanctions that Obama had followed in confronting it. He also chose the path of direct negotiations with North Korea, and his meeting with its leader, Kim Jong-il, at the height of the crisis was an unexpected surprise.

Hence, it is not surprising that Netanyahu, despite the complex relations between them, is exploiting Biden’s need to prove his Zionism to Trump on the one hand, and to leave some legacy that he can be proud of after the shame of the war of extermination that he helped fuel on the other hand. To achieve this, he must convince the outgoing president of this need, just as he must convince the incoming president to leave the difficult work to Biden so that he can take over a clean table on January 20, and focus on “making peace,” as writer Anna Brisky put it in an article published by Maariv.

Regarding the feasibility of Israeli or Israeli-American air strikes, Mark Dudovich, director general of the FDD Institute in Washington, says that Israel has the ability to strike the uranium enrichment facilities in Natanz and Isfahan, but striking the Bordeaux facility seems more complicated because it is located deep underground and is also well fortified. He points out that Israel has demonstrated its ability to penetrate the depth of the Iranian nuclear program, security and intelligence, and it may have unpleasant surprises for Iran, according to him. On the other hand, Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Department at Chatham House in London, rules out an Israeli strike without direct American support.