"Al-Aqsa Flood" and its repercussions on the Arab region

October 7 and Operation Flood of Al-Aqsa were undoubtedly an unexpected surprise and a security shock for Israel, as thousands of rockets were launched from the Gaza Strip, coinciding with an incursion by Hamas fighters using gliders, and then the border was stormed by armed units who penetrated the border barrier after blowing it up, to enter the headquarters of the Southern Command, and what is known as the Gaza Division of the Israeli army. This was also accompanied by electronic jamming of the communications devices of the military leaders, and as a result of this operation some were killed and some of them were transferred as prisoners to Gaza.

The previous brief field explanation constitutes the beginning of the conflict that continued after October 7, 2023 until today, and the facts turned into a devastating war between the two parties in Gaza, for matters and events to develop to open new fronts, such as the main front after Gaza in southern Lebanon, and what was known as the term unity of arenas, in Syria, Yemen and Iraq, represented by factions supported by Iran. All these rapid and successive developments and the repercussions of October 7 have exceeded a year and more in their time period until today. The fuse of the ongoing war is still lit and the rockets are burning everyone. October 7, after a year of fighting, has turned into a regional war in the region, and its ongoing fires are difficult to extinguish until now.

Unfortunately, what we and the world have witnessed of the worsening results of this conflict, especially in Gaza, including the destruction, killing and heavy losses of victims among the missing and wounded, including those who died of hunger, confirms that the Palestinian people have suffered a lot and are the biggest losers from this ongoing conflict. From a military perspective, Israel has defined and declared its goal, which is to eliminate the Hamas movement, especially its military capabilities in the Gaza Strip, in a way that ensures that in the future it will not pose a threat to Israeli national security, specifically to the settlements in what is known as the Gaza Envelope. In addition to these Israeli goals, there is the pursuit of returning the kidnapped Israelis and returning the residents to their homes, which is the same goal intended from the conflict with Hezbollah and the northern border region.

October 7, 2024, which marks the first anniversary of the conflict, saw clear messages sent, represented by what we saw of a wave of rocket attacks by Hamas on Israel, which was linked in terms of its timing and implications to simultaneous rocket attacks also coming from southern Lebanon, Yemen and Syria, in a way that indicates the continuation of this conflict. Regarding the political and military situation of the conflict with Israel, it is clear that some of Israel’s goals have been achieved in Gaza, in addition to killing some of Hamas’s military leaders, such as the martyr Ismail Haniyeh, and destroying vast areas in the Gaza Strip. As for the raging conflict in southern Lebanon, some of the leaders of the Radwan Unit have been killed, leading to the assassination of the commander-in-chief of Hezbollah, in addition to his martyrdom along with others. Israel has declared that its goal is to eliminate the armed resistance fighters on its northern borders, eliminate their military combat capabilities, and work to establish a weapons-free zone, in addition to implementing UN Resolution No. 1701. Despite all these assassinations and great destruction, it is clear that the conflict continues even after a year of fighting. It seems clear today that calm is absent from this conflict, and the unity of the arenas continues. In fact, we have practically entered an advanced state of war, most notably its expansion to include neighboring countries. Among its features are the greater use of missiles and fighters, and the entry into the stage of the Israeli army’s ground invasion of southern Lebanon, and the scenes of killing and destruction that accompanied these developments. And the displacement in Lebanon, in a manner similar to what happened in Gaza to some extent, and recently we notice a broader flare-up on the Syrian front and to a greater extent than the internal wars that it is already suffering from, including a more prominent flare-up in the area parallel to the Golan, as the war in Iraq expanded, and this included Iranian militias striking targets in Israel, and thus it can be said, through the map of conflicts, that the security situation worsened after October 7 and turned into a bloody regional conflict in the region, and the question that imposes itself on our reality today is where are the situations heading? What are the repercussions and dimensions of this raging conflict between the resistance and what is known as the unity of the arenas on the one hand, and Israel on the other hand, in a manner that witnesses non-stop missile bombardment?

The anniversary of October 7 coincided with the speech of the Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei and the Friday sermon in Tehran. The speech included two parts in Persian and Arabic, with the intention of addressing the Arab peoples. In his speech, he stressed Hezbollah’s right to defend Gaza, saying: “Fight the aggressor and defeat it.” He praised the October 7 earthquake and urged the Lebanese (Hezbollah) and the Palestinians to fight and continue the support war.

I believe that the war of support and assistance today needs someone to support it because of the difficult circumstances it is going through. The Guide also explained that “it is all faith that victory is coming,” but unfortunately the people in Gaza and southern Lebanon do not have the basic requirements. They are sleeping in the open and cannot find food, shelter, or the necessary treatment. The displaced people in the southern suburbs had their homes destroyed and turned into piles of cement and iron. Unfortunately, the partnership has become clear that it is only in gains and profits with the unity of the arenas. The partnership is never clear in the losses, victims, and blood that was especially in the Arab countries and from Arab blood.

The Supreme Leader also said in his speech: "Removing the entity stained with shame from the arena of existence", but in all realism and according to the results and after a year of ongoing conflict, we notice that the military power between the militias on the one hand and Israel supported by military capabilities from several countries on the other hand, is clear and does not need explanation, especially with what we see of destruction in Lebanon and Gaza, and of course this painful field situation does not include Iran itself, which was limited to missile strikes from time to time, and unfortunately the Arab people are fighting and do not know exactly where their fate and current future will be, and what we noticed of the severity in the speech of the Supreme Leader Khamenei put the region in a position far from any political solution that could help extinguish the raging fires, and it also does not contribute to saving the lives of Arabs in the unity of the arenas that we are losing every moment, and the question that is repeated is do we Arabs know where our future and the future of our region are heading, the signs of which are clear from the killing and extreme destruction in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen? So where are our Arab countries heading? While we find that others are negotiating to gain and protect interests, without exposing their countries to destruction and sabotage, such as Iran’s interests and its negotiations with America related to the nuclear file and the financial sums due to Iran, the problem here, after October 7, has become clear, and is related to the extent of our awareness in the Arab countries of the reality of the balance of power in this war, and the destruction it has left behind in our Arab cities and countries, unfortunately.

Where is the current conflict heading? What is the future of the Middle East, specifically in this ongoing devastating war? Will October 7 continue for years to come? And if it does, what are its consequences for the economic, social, health and educational conditions in our Arab countries, which have not benefited or won yet? Which leads us to another question: Will we win or lose? What are the repercussions of success or failure on us? And if we win, what is the future of cities destroyed by war, as is the case in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen?

The current tense geopolitical situation in our region poses an important question: Will the situation remain tense? Are we really witnessing a phase of changing influence or a phase of changing maps on the ground in terms of borders, politics and economy? There is no doubt that the answers to these questions will be given in the coming days, as they alone are capable of clarifying the results based on what the conflicts will leave behind on the ground and in the military arena.