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ARAB AND WORLD

Fri 11 Oct 2024 9:39 am - Jerusalem Time

Iran Secretly Warns America's Arab Allies: Don't Help Israel or You'll Be Next

The Wall Street Journal revealed on Friday that Arab officials said that Tehran is threatening through secret diplomatic channels to target oil-rich Gulf Arab states and other American allies in the Middle East if their territory or airspace is used to launch an attack on Iran.


Israel has threatened Tehran with a severe response after Iran fired some 180 ballistic missiles at Israel earlier this month, with some Israeli officials and commentators calling for devastating strikes on Tehran’s nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure. In that case, Iran has warned that it would respond with devastating strikes on Israel’s civilian infrastructure and would retaliate against any Arab state that facilitates the attack, the officials said.


The Arab officials said the countries Iran has threatened include Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, all of which host U.S. forces. The officials said those countries have told the Biden administration they do not want the United States or Israel to use their military infrastructure or airspace for any offensive operations against Iran.


While the Iranian threats are vague, they have raised concerns in energy-rich Gulf states that their oil facilities — long considered protected by a U.S. security umbrella — could be hit, Arab officials said. U.S. facilities and military forces in the region could also be at risk in an area with one of the highest concentrations of U.S. troops in the world, they added.


The escalating conflict in the Middle East is straining and draining the existing and potential Arab alliance with Israel, all of which oppose Iran’s military posture in the region. The United States is the backbone of this bloc, and hopes that in the future it will form a kind of Middle Eastern NATO that includes Arab states and Israel, allied to confront Iran instead of Russia. Arab states, including Jordan, helped shoot down Iranian projectiles heading toward Israel in April, but supporting a direct Israeli strike on Iran may be a step too far.


U.S. defense officials acknowledged that some regional partners have told the Pentagon they do not want Israeli warplanes to fly over their territory or U.S. forces to launch offensive operations from within or over their airspace. The officials said the Arab countries have said U.S. forces are allowed to conduct self-defense operations. A U.S. defense official said the Arab countries’ requests remain informal. Defense officials said that since the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza began last year, Arab countries have repeatedly added and removed restrictions on U.S. operations. But the officials said they have been more assertive as the war has expanded into clashes between Israel and Iran, including Israeli attacks in Lebanon.


US President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed Israel’s expected military response to Iran on Wednesday in their first call since August 21. US officials said they did not yet know the timing of a strike or what Israel might target. Israel’s security cabinet was scheduled to meet, where members were presented with options for responding to the Iranian attack, according to an Israeli official.


“Israel likely has other ways to send warplanes to attack Iran, including over Syria, where its air force has freedom of movement, and Iraq, where air defenses are no match for Israeli stealth technology,” the newspaper said.


However, any restrictions on how the U.S. military can move around the region make it difficult to secure or resupply its assets, such as aircraft carriers operating in the Red Sea.


The US Central Command, responsible for US military operations in the Middle East, referred questions to its Arab allies to inquire about Iran.


Earlier this month, Iran's mission to the United Nations publicly warned that "any state that provides assistance" to an Israeli attack "will also be considered an accomplice and a legitimate target," but did not provide any specific details.


The United States has supported Israel with a huge amount of weapons, equipment, political and diplomatic cover, under the pretext of “Israel’s right to self-defense,” which gives Israel the right to commit genocidal massacres against the Palestinians since October 7, 2023, and now in Lebanon as well.


In April, when Iran first targeted Israel in a direct attack, American forces largely intercepted most of the Iranian drones and missiles. “But they were able to do so in part because Arab states passed on intelligence about Tehran’s attack plans, opened their airspace to warplanes, shared radar tracking information or, in some cases, provided their own forces to help, officials said at the time,” the paper reported.


With Iran warning it will respond if Israel attacks, Arab leaders worry that an escalation could force the United States to intervene to help Israel, its closest ally in the Middle East.


Arab mediators are trying to calm tensions as they relay messages between Israel and Iran — a back channel that has been open since April, when Iran hit Israel with 300 rockets, the newspaper said. The covert diplomacy has intensified since Israel assassinated Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah group, and launched a ground offensive in Lebanon. Iran fired its latest ballistic missile at Israel days later.


The threatening messages underscore the risks facing the United States if a counterstrike between Israel and Iran gets out of hand. U.S. officials say they are beefing up their military presence in the region, including increasing the number of warplanes deployed to the Middle East and keeping the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group in the region.


The newspaper notes that during an emergency meeting last week in an attempt to avert any attack by Tehran, the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, promised not to allow their territories or airspace to be used in any potential strikes on Iran.


Some Arab countries fear that an expanding war could choke off oil exports passing through the Strait of Hormuz - the narrow waterway that connects the Gulf to the wider world - which could push oil prices higher, Arab government officials said.


Public rhetoric between Israel and Iran has also become more strident, with both sides issuing harsher direct threats, and officials from both countries continuing to target non-military infrastructure on the table. Previously, threats focused mostly on military targets or proxies.


The tone of the private messages was tougher than it had been in April, after Iran’s previous missile and drone attack, when Israel’s tough public rhetoric was accompanied by backchannel messages aimed at calming tensions. At that time, Israel, under pressure from the United States to temper its response, targeted Iranian air defense systems.

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Iran Secretly Warns America's Arab Allies: Don't Help Israel or You'll Be Next