American officials believe that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is clinging to fate after nearly a year of war on Gaza and is determined to see Israel drawn into a wider regional conflict, according to the New York Times.

Sinwar has long believed he would not survive the war, a view that has hampered negotiations to secure the release of hostages his group held in the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel, according to U.S. intelligence assessments.

American officials say his position has hardened in recent weeks, and American negotiators now believe Hamas has no intention of reaching a deal with Israel.

"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also rejected the proposals in the negotiations and added positions that have complicated the talks. American officials assess that he is primarily concerned about his political survival and may not believe that a ceasefire in Gaza is in his interest," according to the newspaper.

US officials say Hamas has shown no interest in participating in the talks in recent weeks. US officials suspect Sinwar has become more submissive as Israeli forces pursue him and talk of closing in on him.

It is noteworthy that the official spokesman for the State Department, Matthew Miller, insisted in response to a question from the Al-Quds newspaper correspondent on Thursday regarding Hamas’s approval of the proposal that US President Joe Biden had presented in full on May 31, that Hamas was no longer interested in negotiations seeking to reach a ceasefire in Gaza.

American officials said that a larger war would put pressure on Israel and its army, which, in Sinwar's estimation, would force them to scale back operations in Gaza.

The war in the region has expanded, but not in ways that have tangibly benefited Hamas, at least not yet.

Immediately after October 7, Hezbollah began carrying out strikes in northern Israel in a show of solidarity with Hamas. While the attacks drove Israelis from their homes, they did not put pressure on the military. American officials at the time assessed that Hezbollah leaders did not want to start a new war with Israel.

Since Israel launched its campaign against Hezbollah last month, the group has not launched a major counterattack on Israel, let alone opened an offensive front. Israeli and American officials say Israel has destroyed half the militia’s arsenal and killed many of its leaders.

Israeli forces moved into southern Lebanon this week, after a nearly month-long bombing and sabotage campaign that included a strike that killed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah. Iran, which backs Hezbollah and Hamas, fired a barrage of rockets at Israel on Tuesday in response to Mr. Nasrallah’s killing. But most of the missiles were shot down or failed to do any real damage.

Sinwar’s communication with his organization has become strained, after his isolation and hiding in Gaza. He has long since stopped using electronic devices and maintains contact with his organization through a network of human messengers, according to Israeli and American officials.

"The failure of Hezbollah or Iran to inflict tangible damage on Israel is a clear sign of Sinwar's miscalculation," the newspaper reported, citing US officials.

The pace of Israeli operations in Gaza has slowed, according to U.S. intelligence assessments, as Israeli leaders have shifted their attention north. Israeli forces are now in a handful of locations in Gaza, including what they call the Philadelphi Corridor between the territory and Egypt. While Israel has not launched a major raid on civilian areas in Gaza in weeks, it is still carrying out daily airstrikes targeting Hamas and civilians in Gaza. In the space of 24 hours on Wednesday and Thursday, 99 Palestinians, all civilians, were killed in the Gaza Strip, local health officials said, one of the highest death tolls in months.

Talks to broker a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages collapsed after Netanyahu added demands, and others he had previously abandoned, frustrating international negotiators. Sinwar, in turn, has become more hardline, U.S. officials say.

According to reports, the actions and motives of Yahya Sinwar have been the focus of the US intelligence community at least since October 7. After that, spy agencies intensified their work on the Hamas leader, and formed a targeting cell to study and hunt him down.

“For months, intelligence agencies have assessed that Sinwar has a fatalistic stance and is more interested in inflicting pain on the Israelis than helping the Palestinians. American officials will not discuss their recent intelligence gathering on him, but the view that his position is hardening comes from officials who study his negotiating positions and his classified reports,” the newspaper reported.

Sinwar’s position hardened this summer after Israel assassinated Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader based in Qatar and a top negotiator. Haniyeh had been a more conciliatory negotiator who was interested in cutting a deal, and U.S. officials say he was willing to meet Sinwar’s more extreme demands. Israel’s decision to kill a top Hamas leader who was negotiating a cease-fire angered the group and Sinwar in particular, according to U.S. officials.

Some Israeli officials have questioned whether Sinwar is still alive. American and Israeli officials acknowledge there is no conclusive evidence that he is alive. There have been no audio or video recordings of him for months.

On September 13, Hezbollah published a letter sent by Sinwar in support of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

US officials acknowledge they have no evidence of his death, and senior US officials have said they believe he is alive and making critical decisions for Hamas. Sinwar remains in hiding, but he appears to be aware that Israeli forces are closing in on him. The Israeli military claimed to have approached Sinwar’s location in August, with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant saying his forces had discovered signs that the Hamas leader had spent time in a network of tunnels under Rafah, in southern Gaza. “When we entered the tunnels under Rafah, where the hostages were killed, we found signs of the previous Sinwar in Tel al-Sultan,” Galant told reporters recently, referring to six hostages believed to have been killed in a Gaza neighborhood near Rafah.

“While Sinwar’s strategy has not yet worked, it may eventually,” experts say. Israeli forces are fighting Hezbollah on its territory in southern Lebanon. “While the Israeli government promises a limited incursion into Lebanon, the military operations so far have been extensive. The fighting has already proven difficult: at least nine soldiers were killed in the first days of close-quarters fighting. If the fighting continues, and Iran gets involved, Sinwar may achieve his desire for a multi-front war that would ease the pressure on Hamas.”

Iran and Israel may continue to trade ballistic missile strikes. If one weapon causes significant damage, a larger conflict could erupt.

American officials are waiting to see if the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates further. They do not believe that Iran wants an all-out war with Israel or direct intervention to help Hamas. But they also publicly support a planned Israeli strike against Iran in response to this week’s ballistic missile attack.