Nasrallah's assassination is a turning point

Even in our worst nightmares, we did not imagine that the occupying state would be able to deliver qualitative strikes to Hezbollah as happened in the past few weeks, culminating in the assassination of its Secretary-General, the martyr Hassan Nasrallah, the exceptional leader who marked Lebanon with his characteristics and left his fingerprints on the entire region. He is a leading Lebanese, Palestinian, Arab, Iranian figure, and has special organic regional relations with Tehran, which provided him with great resources that made Hezbollah the most important and strongest popular party - to the point of describing it as stronger than many countries - and restricted it to the determinants of the Iranian project that is hostile to the Zionist colonial project and has its own priorities.

Nasrallah has a strong presence and great weight due to his wisdom, management of affairs, and credibility that has led to his being believed even by broad circles of Israelis, and the victories he achieved in repelling the Israeli occupation from Lebanon in 2000, and steadfastness in the face of the Zionist invasion in 2006 and preventing it from achieving its goals; which led to the drawing of a legendary image of him that makes his absence in this way, and with the liquidation of most of the party’s leadership and the injury of thousands in booby-trapping pagers and wireless devices, not just a major event, but an earthquake that will have major repercussions on the entire region, and we are not exaggerating that his assassination and what is happening now will be a decisive turning point that will open the door to completing the success of establishing the new Middle East, or the beginning of its defeat and drawing the region in a way that meets the interests, goals and ambitions of its countries and peoples.

His loss is a huge loss and he cannot be compensated for or replaced. Rather, Hezbollah needs the combined efforts of several leaders and institutional collective work to fill the void resulting from his absence.

Does the above mean that Hezbollah has been removed from the equation and defeated in an irreversible way, or that the blow that did not kill it strengthens it, or does this or that depend on the party’s ability to pull itself together again, regain the initiative, and the ability to control, dominate, rise again, and move forward?

Answering these questions and rising again requires conducting a deep, comprehensive and bold review of the previous experience, especially in its security aspect, and drawing lessons and morals; a review that can explain what happened and be able to develop the appropriate treatment, especially since what happened indicates either a major breach or a huge technological superiority or both, especially since Operation “Arrows of the North” is ongoing and is likely to continue, and its name has been changed to become regime change, to be consistent with the reality of the goals that go beyond returning the displaced people of the north, and reach the quest to change the balance of power and redraw the entire Middle East, as Benjamin Netanyahu has repeated several times.

Achieving this Israeli goal passes over the corpse of the Palestinian cause, through liquidating all its aspects, marginalizing it and bypassing it, and having more Arab and Islamic countries normalize their relations with the occupying state and integrate it into the region, eliminating or weakening various resistance forces, and installing Israel as a state dominating the entire region. This is a major goal that can be thwarted if the resistance forces and the peoples and countries of the region affected by it are able to acquire the necessary awareness and develop appropriate plans, policies and procedures to defeat it.

The decisive matter is not whether Hezbollah is able to respond proportionately now, as it can respond if it can or can respond later, as it needs a period to catch its breath and reorganize its ranks. The decisive matter is not whether Iran responds or does not respond now, but rather that you realize that avoiding war due to lack of readiness is not possible if your enemy has chosen to wage it and is in the midst of it. This does not require rushing to take revenge without calculations, but it requires making the enemy pay a price that will make him reconsider the decision to go to war, and not ignoring the crossing of a red line after a red line.

It is true that the priority now is to absorb the blows, work to regain the initiative, and be able to maintain the unity of the arenas and the unity of the resistance forces, and the unity of Hezbollah and adherence to its priorities, and block the path of internal seditions that are being set up against it, by planting mistrust and defeat in its ranks, or creating a rift within the Shiite sect, or between it and the rest of the other sects in response to incitement, taking from what happened, and what could happen of the destruction of Lebanon similar to the destruction of Gaza, an excuse to push Hezbollah at the minimum to give up the unity of the arenas, and withdraw its forces from the border strip to provide a safe zone, and at the maximum to agree to disarm and completely distance itself from the Palestinian cause.

Obstacles in the way of sedition

The obstacles that stand in the way of sedition are as follows:

First: The goals of the Israeli war are greater than the return of the displaced people of the north and the creation of a buffer zone on the border, but rather reach the point of changing the Middle East, and this will not be achieved without establishing a buffer zone in southern Lebanon and directing a decisive blow to Iran and its nuclear program. Whoever looks at the map of the axis of evil that Netanyahu presented and what he said in his speech at the United Nations must expect that the war is still in its early stages, and that Israel’s ambitions in it are much greater than what is being said, and perhaps the Israeli consensus on waging a ground war is conclusive evidence of what we have said.

Second: Hezbollah is a strong, institutional and ideological party, and it is difficult, even impossible, for it to surrender. It could retreat a little or a lot, and it could weaken, but it will not end or abandon its goals or its program, no matter the cost, and it will rise from its slump sooner or later.

The theorists of defeat and surrender must stop serving the enemies of their countries by talking all the time about how the eye cannot resist the awl, and that Israel is an invincible force that cannot be resisted because resistance leads to paying a very high price, jumping to the fact that colonized peoples and liberation movements have suffered throughout history from a grave imbalance of power, and that if they used that as a justification for not resisting, colonialism would continue forever.

However, the liberation movements and their peoples chose the appropriate means of resistance, as they adopted the long-term popular liberation war and guerrilla warfare, and dealt with resistance as a method to achieve goals and not an end in itself, in order to defeat the colonizing state not militarily, as it is not able to achieve that, but by bringing it to a position where it is convinced that it is losing more from its colonization and occupation than it is gaining. Therefore, they adopted various forms of peaceful and violent resistance (rough and soft), and bet on the contradictions within the ranks of the enemy and on the liberation and solidarity movements and the forces of progress, justice and freedom throughout the world.

On the other hand, some of Hezbollah and resistance theorists must review themselves and stop misleading themselves, the public and the resistance leadership by promoting the victories achieved in Gaza without seeing the high prices. Yes, there is great steadfastness, but it is accompanied by an unprecedented disaster.

And also to stop promoting the victories that are on their way to being achieved without seeing the dangers and the imbalance of power, to the point of propaganda that the demise of Israel is not only possible, but has begun to be achieved, and that it is unable to bear the losses or enter into a ground war, and that it does not want war but rather to improve the terms of negotiation. This is completely far from reality, and it is stubbornness in defense of estimates that have been proven wrong, and portraying that the occupying state will not be able to withstand if the war moves to its home front, and that its internal differences will hasten its complete and resounding defeat.

Yes, Israel is vulnerable to defeat, as the Al-Aqsa Intifada showed. Its deterrent power has fallen, and it has become clear that it needs someone to protect it. However, it has now regained its deterrent power until it suffers a new defeat or defeats. It can disappear when the factors for its disappearance are present. However, this requires revolutionary realism that sees things as they are and seeks to change them, and does not risk deteriorating or faltering and surrendering.

Victory needs time, a change in the balance of power, and the provision of appropriate local, regional, and international conditions. Israel is a strong and nuclear state, and most importantly, it is part of the colonial camp, which is declining, yes, but it is still the strongest, and it has organic relations with the United States of America, the most powerful country in the world, which will not allow it to be defeated easily and quickly, which if it happens will lead to the benefit of Washington's enemies, led by China, which seeks to lead the world and has set a date for achieving this in the year 2049.

Therefore, the Biden administration provided all forms of support, was a full partner in the war, agreed with the occupying state on goals and differed on some policies and tactics, and pledged to preserve Israel’s security and prevent it from defeat... and there is more to the story.