Harris and the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Horizon

If Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, takes a firm stance demanding that Israel agree to an immediate ceasefire and not restrict aid to the Palestinians, she will strengthen her electoral lead over her Republican rival, Donald Trump. That’s one of the key findings of a recent poll conducted by the Arab American Institute in collaboration with pollster John Zogby.

Between the Republican and Democratic conventions, the Arab American Institute conducted a poll of 2,505 American voters to assess how the war in Gaza and U.S. policy toward Israel’s conduct in that war would affect their votes in November. The poll found that 15 percent of voters said the crisis in Gaza would be “very important” in determining their vote (another 33 percent said it was “somewhat important.”) But on this issue, like so many others in America today, there is a deep partisan divide, with Republicans more supportive of Israel and Democrats more favorable to the Palestinians.

If we look closely at the data, we find that the partisan divide actually stems from deep differences in the views of the demographic groups that make up each party’s base: Younger, nonwhite voters are more sympathetic to the Palestinians and critical of Israel, while older white voters are more favorable to Israel. For example, a majority of voters in all groups except Republicans disapprove of the way Israel is conducting the war, feel that Israel has used too much force in Gaza, want an immediate ceasefire, and oppose unfettered financial and military support for Israel if it continues to act in ways that endanger civilians.

A majority of voters (43%) disapprove of the way Israel is conducting the war, while only a third approve. Those disapproving include 54% of Democrats and 52% of young voters. In addition, 36% of likely voters say Israel has used excessive force, including 46% of young people ages 18 to 34. One area of near-unanimity is the importance of an “immediate ceasefire,” with three-quarters saying it is important to them, half saying it is “very important,” and another quarter saying it is “somewhat important.”

Only 11 percent say it is “not important.” This large majority includes Democrats, Republicans, and independents, and a majority of every demographic subgroup. The largest majorities, of course, are young voters and nonwhites. Very small percentages in all groups say an immediate cease-fire is not important. Another area of strong support among most subgroups of voters is whether Israel should continue to receive unconditional U.S. aid or whether it should be conditioned on Israel using the aid in a way that harms civilians.

Only 28% feel that Israel should always receive unconditional aid, while 51% say there should be no unconditional aid if Israel is putting civilians at risk. On this question, Republican voters are evenly split at 40%, while Democrats oppose unconditional aid to Israel by a 59% to 20% margin.

Independents oppose it, 56% to 26%. Overall, the Biden administration gets low marks for its handling of the war—31% positive and 50% negative—a negative view shared by voters across all parties and demographic groups. The poll reveals that this dissatisfaction provides an opportunity for Vice President Harris. When voters were asked how it would affect their vote if Harris demanded that Israel agree to an immediate ceasefire and unimpeded humanitarian access to Gaza, voters overwhelmingly supported such a move, while only a small number opposed it. A deeper look at the numbers shows a huge gain and very little risk for Harris in taking this position, including very positive and few negative ratings among most key groups, including a majority of Jewish voters.

It would also win her the support of a majority of traditional Democratic voters who currently support third-party candidates or are undecided. Overall, if Harris took this position, her support would rise from 44% to 50%. The same positive results would apply if Harris supported suspending arms shipments and withholding diplomatic support to Israel until there is a ceasefire and troop withdrawal from Gaza. Such a position would increase her support from 44% to 49%. The poll also found that Democrats, who are concerned about President Biden’s age and ability, were overwhelmingly supportive of his decision to step down as a candidate. This was particularly true among Democratic voters.

The president’s policy toward Gaza was also a factor, especially among young and nonwhite voters. In early August, Vice President Harris held a narrow lead over former President Trump in both a head-to-head and multi-candidate race.

This poll finds the same is true. Both Harris and Trump have gained support among voters in their respective parties. Harris’s favorable/unfavorable ratings are better than Trump’s, with her strongest support coming from young and nonwhite voters.

Trump’s support is strongest among white voters. Given the deep divisions among the American electorate, the presidential race is likely to remain close. One area where support for Harris could grow is by building on her already expressed sympathy for the suffering of the Palestinians, her call for an immediate ceasefire, and her implicit concern about how Israel is handling this war by making clear that there will be consequences if the war continues, a step that President Biden has been reluctant to take.