Israel and the Borders of Fire

What was going through Benjamin Netanyahu's mind on the plane that took him back from his American trip?

What he concluded concerns the entire region, because it will affect his government’s decisions on both the Lebanese and Gaza fronts. Did he conclude that he restored his American umbrella through the meetings he held with Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, despite the comments and differences?

Does Netanyahu believe that he has received a mandate to continue the wars despite reservations here and there? Does he believe that the months separating him from the birth of the new American president are an opportunity to complete the "mission" he set in Gaza? And does he imagine that what happened in the town of Majdal Shams in the occupied Golan gives him an opportunity to carry out a similar "mission" on the front with Lebanon?

Members of Congress gave a long round of applause to the Israeli visitor, who now holds the record for addressing them. But the number of vacant seats was not small. Moreover, Harris, who is running for the White House, did not feel the need to listen to the Israeli prime minister’s presentation. Did the visitor conclude that America has changed, even a little? That what happened in the streets and universities is not fleeting, and that the era of absolute and open-ended authorization is no longer as guaranteed as it was?

It is difficult to predict what was going through Netanyahu's mind. There are fears that he will consider what happened in Majdal Shams a one-off opportunity to transfer the scenes of Gaza to Lebanon, or at least to the border strip adjacent to Israel. There are also fears that he will think that it is an opportunity to wage a battle to return one hundred thousand Israelis to the settlements and villages they left as a result of the "war of distraction" launched by "Hezbollah" in the wake of the "Al-Aqsa Flood."

Netanyahu knows that the era of lightning wars is over and will never return. Israel is no longer able to declare the end of the war based on a knockout blow. The nature of the belligerents and the nature of wars have changed. He also knows that the Lebanese front was and still is more dangerous than the Gaza front. And that Hezbollah possesses many times the arsenal that appeared in the hands of Hamas. He also knows that the line of contact with Hezbollah is, in essence, a line of contact with Iran itself. And that Tehran cannot tolerate Hezbollah being subjected to what Hamas was subjected to. And that Hezbollah’s lines are open from southern Lebanon to Tehran. And that sharing the maps that contributed to supporting Hamas will be doubled when it comes to Hezbollah.

In recent months, the Lebanese have heard worrying Israeli threats. Some have asserted Israel's ability to transfer the woes of Gaza to Beirut. Others have spoken of the Israeli army's ability to return Lebanon to the Stone Age. The threats have not led to the confrontation being taken outside the "rules of engagement" that have lasted for ten months, with the exception of limited violations. Washington has succeeded in compelling Israel to refrain from causing a large-scale regional war.

The Majdal Shams incident provided the extremists of the Israeli government with a pretext to demand that Netanyahu launch a full-scale war against Lebanon. The madness reached the point of demanding that Beirut be burned. Voices of the displaced from northern Israel rose, accusing Netanyahu of being lenient with their fate. Others spoke of Israel becoming an unsafe country, with some of its citizens feeling their passports in search of other countries and signs of “reverse migration.”

An open war on the Lebanese front, if it breaks out, will not be a picnic for Israel. In recent months, Hezbollah has presented examples of its arsenal, which is now very different from what it possessed in the 2006 war. In return, Israel has employed its technological superiority to kill hundreds of Hezbollah fighters. It will not be a picnic for Israel in terms of security and economy, but it will be disastrous for Lebanon.

It is no exaggeration to say that Lebanon is overwhelmed at every level. Its institutions are dilapidated. The Lebanese are accustomed to the vacant presidential palace, the almost paralyzed parliament, and the cracked caretaker government. The Lebanese are divided over many things, including the “war of distraction,” while bread is more difficult to obtain than before and the desire to emigrate is more important than anything else.

The Lebanese state is no longer a serious player, neither in the south nor in Beirut. A significant portion of the Lebanese tend to believe that Lebanon has been pushed into a regional role that is beyond its capacity, and that in recent months it has been unable to follow a policy of reducing risks like that followed by Syria. Many believe that if the Gaza war was bigger than Gaza, then any large-scale war in Lebanon would be much bigger than Lebanon.

What was going through Netanyahu's mind on the plane that brought him back to Israel yesterday? Will he be satisfied with launching a strike that would ignite a significant and limited fire, similar to what he did with the Houthis, or does he believe that Israel cannot coexist with Hezbollah's arsenal located near its borders? Calls for action against Lebanon are not limited to his camp. In the opposition, there are voices calling for revenge against the party and Lebanon.

The coming days will show whether America, lost between Harris and Trump, is still able to protect its previous decision to prevent a slide into a regional war. They will show whether it can speed up the date for extinguishing the fire in Gaza and hopefully extinguish the wars of distraction that have appeared on several maps? Extinguishing the fire requires a complex "tango" between America and Iran. Is the latter ready to help control the fires in any way and at any price?

An open war on the Lebanese front, if it breaks out, will not be a picnic for Israel. In recent months, Hezbollah has presented examples of its arsenal, which is now very different from what it possessed in the 2006 war.