Has Netanyahu's decline begun?

Even now, it's impossible to say with certainty that Netanyahu's demise has begun, despite all the signs and precursors suggesting that Netanyahu, who has always been endowed with charisma, is capable of overcoming his crises by exporting them, of dismantling the traps set for him by the Israeli opposition, and of escaping crises both internally and externally.

Netanyahu lived in the euphoria of his victories and achievements, with what he achieved from July 2024 to September 2024, with the assassination of the resistance leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and then His Eminence Sayyed Nasrallah, Safi al-Din, and a large number of military and security leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas, foremost among them Yahya Sinwar, head of the Hamas Political Bureau. This was known as the deadly triple package that targeted Hezbollah, the bombing of the pager and ICOM devices, which put a large number of the party’s personnel and auxiliary forces out of service, the series of assassinations of leaders, the destruction of the incubator environment, the “Dahiya doctrine,” as well as the burning of the incubator environment, the “Jabalia doctrine.” This was followed by success in bringing about geostrategic change in Syria, represented not in the overthrow of the Syrian regime, but in the overthrow of the Syrian state, placing it under Israeli and Turkish influence, and the final removal of Syria from the axis of resistance, as well as the removal of Iran and Hezbollah from Syria, the weakening of the Russian presence, and the cutting off of Hezbollah’s lifeline from the supply of weapons. From Iran and Syria, through the control of the new Syrian regime's army over the Syrian-Lebanese crossings, and the closure of the airport by the new Lebanese regime to any Iranian military, material, or in-kind aid to Hezbollah and the resistance.

At this particular stage, it seems that Netanyahu's situation is at its worst, and that his rise is now heading towards a sharp decline, after having lived through the peak of his victories, achievements and boasting. Today, everything is moving against what Netanyahu and America want, which has provided him with everything to overcome the existential threat to his country, through unprecedented military and financial support, active participation in the war alongside him, and providing him with legal and political cover in all international institutions, reaching the point of imposing sanctions on anyone who verbally touches the "sacred cow" or demands that it be punished for its crimes and blatant violation of international and humanitarian law.

But this American scenario did not remain the same. The United States, which had given Netanyahu sufficient time to achieve his military and security objectives in the Gaza Strip, recover his prisoners, and eliminate Hamas and the Palestinian resistance, was unable to achieve those objectives. Rather, the more his army sank deeper into the sands of Gaza, the more he paid a heavy price in the blood of his army and officers.

America is stuck in its war with Yemen. Despite all the bombing, raids, weapons used in the bombing, and destroyers brought to the region to participate in the war on Yemen, it has not succeeded in breaking the Yemenis' resolve or withdrawing them from their support front. America has not succeeded in opening the Red Sea to ships carrying goods to Israel, nor in stopping the bombing of Yemen of vital military and economic targets deep inside Israel. Therefore, America has become convinced that its salvation from the Yemen complex lies in a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, the terms of which the Palestinian resistance accepts. Trump now wants to reach an agreement with Iran, without responding to Netanyahu's cries of war. He wants to devote himself to his trade and economic war with China. Therefore, he accepted Iran's conditions, that the agenda of the indirect Iranian-American negotiations not include anything technical or political, except for the Iranian nuclear file, and only what relates to its military aspect, without addressing other files, such as the ballistic missiles file, the suicide drones file, Iran's regional role, and its support for Palestinian and Arab resistance forces.

The American war on Yemen revealed the limitations of American military power in changing the political scene, but its intervention succeeded in removing the existential threat from Israel. However, the weight of the humanitarian and prisoner issues shifted to Washington, and in parallel with the change in the American scene, we are witnessing a stumbling block in the direction of the military scene. The ongoing war on the Gaza Strip and the threat of Israeli war leaders to expand it, if the resistance and Hamas do not raise the banner of surrender and accept the Israeli conditions to disarm it, remove its leaders, exclude Hamas from the military and civilian scenes, and release the prisoners, will prevent even the entry of air to the Gaza Strip. However, the facts on the ground indicate that the more the occupation army delves deeper into the sands and swamp of Gaza, the more its army suffers losses of its soldiers and officers. This is clear from the qualitative operations in Beit Hanoun, Shujaiya, Rafah-Tel Sultan, and others, which confirms that the resistance is restoring and rehabilitating its military capabilities and compensating for the loss in the human side by recruiting thousands of young people to its ranks. In contrast, on the Israeli side, there is a deficit in combat units, a rebellion in the reserves, and protest petitions of thousands. The military is against the war, and the result is a massive hemorrhage within the ranks of the occupation army, a result that is likely to escalate the longer the war continues.

Israeli media reported on a conflict between army officers. They said that "the blood of our soldiers is not cheap," and criticized the ongoing war on the Gaza Strip without a clear goal or significant security achievement, while "soldiers are exposed to danger daily."

In this context, Israel's Channel 14 revealed anger among senior Israeli army officers, quoting them as saying, "A decision must be made: either destroy Gaza or leave it. The blood of soldiers is not cheap."

Meanwhile, the military correspondent for Channel 12 says, "The army has been operating in Gaza without a clear objective since the ceasefire ended."

He added, "There is no large-scale military operation, nor any real political movement," noting that "the fighters are exposed to danger daily without any significant security achievements or progress in returning prisoners."

Former Prime Minister Barak said that this war is futile and serves only Netanyahu's political interests. He warned of the imminent danger to the occupying state and its future, while former Prime Minister Bennett said that Netanyahu is putting his own interests above the public interest.

Inside Israel, the circle of protest is expanding further, and the legal cases against Netanyahu and his government are escalating, especially before the Supreme Court. Former Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar has joined the ranks of witnesses, ready to go all the way in pursuing Netanyahu with court cases. Meanwhile, public opinion polls indicate a horrific decline in the popularity of the war, which has become Netanyahu's own. What was striking was what Channel 13 reported yesterday, which stated that only 25.1% of Israelis support continuing the war on the Gaza Strip, and 63.7% of Israelis support ending the war and returning all prisoners. This is an unprecedented percentage, as the percentage of supporters of Netanyahu and the war remained at the threshold of 38% during the worst previous stages for Netanyahu.

Despite all the developments that suggest the Netanyahu era is on its way out, Netanyahu's dispatch of Mossad chief Barnea to Doha and the negotiations he is conducting to reach a comprehensive deal may lead Netanyahu to accept early elections, which would return him to power and lift the "sword" of religious and nationalist Zionism hanging over his neck: Smotrich and Ben-Gvir. The days are ripe with developments.

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The US war on Yemen revealed the limitations of US military power in changing the political landscape. However, its intervention succeeded in removing the existential threat from Israel, but the weight of the humanitarian and prisoner issues shifted to Washington.