Bennet-Lapid Unit - A Change in Form, Not in Substance

This merger unit of two former prime ministers of the occupation state, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, is based on ending the era of Netanyahu's rule, which is the longest in the history of the occupation state, surpassing the term of the founder of the occupation state, Ben-Gurion. He has been prime minister of the occupation state from 2009 until today. This unit could attract former military leaders Gantz and Ashkenazi, and is supported by the leader of "Yisrael Beiteinu," Avigdor Lieberman. It might also cause a rift and disruption within the Likud, succeeding in attracting a number of its leaders. All indicators suggest that the upcoming political election scene in Israel next October will be the hottest, due to a combination of internal, regional, and international considerations and factors. In the Likud, internal disputes and conflicts over Netanyahu's succession will intensify, after the revelation of his cancer diagnosis. Similarly, disputes and conflicts between the loyalists and the opposition will escalate. Netanyahu, an expert in exporting his internal crises abroad, may resort to exploiting security and political circumstances to his advantage. Perhaps, as is customary in every sharp turn, and the possibility of a ceasefire on one of the fronts, he will pour oil on the fire, or go to open a new military front. He might undertake an adventure that disrupts those elections, where he will use security circumstances as an excuse, and the impermissibility of holding elections in wartime. He realizes that his loss in the elections means that an official investigation committee will be formed into the failures of October 7, 2023, security and intelligence-related, and a fundamental part of the responsibility for that will fall on him. Consequently, he will not only be prosecuted for the criminal charges pending against him before the Israeli judiciary – bribery, breach of trust, and fraud – but those failures will be one of the charges against him. Therefore, Netanyahu will fight with all his might to avoid losing his political and personal future and exiting the scene, even if he resorts to the Samson option. We realize that the unity between Bennett and Lapid brings only a change in form, not in substance. These generals and leaders of these parties are from the core right, entrenched and positioned on the same right-wing ground. They differ with Netanyahu on the strategy of managing the conflict and reducing its scope, while strongly adhering to the position of right-wing forces: no independent Palestinian state on a part of historical Palestine, no recognition of the existence of the Palestinian people, intensification of settlement in the West Bank, and increasing the number of settlers there to one million settlers, to transform it into what is known as the state of Judea and Samaria, through annexation and Judaization policies, and the continuation of geographical and demographic "engineering" operations against the Palestinian people there, and the endeavor to definitively resolve sovereignty and control over Jerusalem, and the continuation of aggression against the Gaza Strip at low to medium levels, through qualitative operations, incursions, assassinations, and liquidations, expanding the seized area, maintaining siege and starvation policies, and expanding the Judaization operations of the Negev and Galilee, what is known as the historical land of Israel. Some believe that if these forces succeed in overthrowing Netanyahu, his government, and his coalition, they will promote and spread false awareness of achieving a resounding victory, added to dozens of previous victories, for which our people pay the price on their skin through oppression, abuse, siege, starvation, expulsion, displacement, and ethnic cleansing. Our fundamental issue is related to the demise and end of the occupation, not the overthrow of Netanyahu, even if that has significant importance. In light of the occupation army's shortage of manpower, especially since the last war on more than one front indicated that this army, given this shortage, will not be able to fight on more than one front, the clash with Netanyahu will be over internal issues such as the endeavor to form an official investigation committee into the failures of October 7, 2023, security and intelligence-related, and the issue of recruiting Haredi Jews and the large budgets poured into religious parties to maintain their loyalty, through spending on their schools and religious institutions. Experts in internal Israeli affairs believe that Benjamin Netanyahu's chances of winning the next elections in six months have become nil after the opposition succeeded in uniting its ranks behind the duo Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, ensuring them a comfortable majority that could reach 70 votes amid a significant decline in Netanyahu's popularity to 35% and expectations that his parliamentary bloc with his allies will not exceed 40 deputies. Experts say that failure in Lebanon and the stalemate in an unending war with Iran form the basis of the decline in Netanyahu's and his government's popularity, after this popularity had seen a tangible rise before the last war with the promotion of the equation of eliminating the nuclear and missile programs in Iran and getting rid of the threat of Hezbollah to the occupation army and northern settlements, and the facts strongly refuted these claims. Netanyahu, at this moment, is the strong man in the occupation state, who holds political and military decision-making power, and he is capable of leading the opposition where he wants. This opposition, its alliance comes within a tactical framework, and it does not possess a comprehensive political program, nor does it have solutions for fundamental issues, foremost among them the Palestinian issue, ending the occupation, addressing structural racism, or even proposing regional political solutions. The crisis Netanyahu is going through is multi-dimensional; it relates to his political performance after the ceasefire in Lebanon under American pressure, in addition to his health condition, which suggests that he is going through a phase of political decline. This could lead to a realignment within the Zionist opposition, as well as within the right-wing camp itself, including the Likud, which could weaken Netanyahu's internal position. By the way, we must remember that Israeli political parties, in their historical approaches to forming Israeli governments, have dealt with Arabs as a political reserve used to ensure staying in power, not as a partner in changing policies, ending the occupation, or confronting racism.