Hezbollah's New Deterrence Equation Causes Confusion in Tel Aviv and Deepens Trust Crisis in Netanyahu's Government

The Israeli arena is witnessing a state of turmoil and confusion amid Hezbollah's attempts to build a new deterrence equation to counter the continuous violations of the ceasefire agreement. The occupation government seeks to replicate previous experiences that allow it to move militarily freely in Lebanese airspace, but these endeavors face unprecedented field obstacles.

Contrary to Israeli expectations that bet on the decline of the party's capabilities after the recent confrontations, field data showed success in restoring the organizational structure and regaining balance. The party's new strategy relies on an immediate and direct response to any Israeli violation, which has led to the continuation of a war atmosphere in the Galilee settlements.

This field performance has caused a state of frustration and anger within Israeli circles, especially in the northern areas that still suffer from the sound of sirens. Netanyahu's right-wing coalition faces increasing pressure due to the wide gap between optimistic political statements and the difficult reality experienced by settlers on the ground.

In the context of official threats, Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz hinted at targeting Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem, claiming to be awaiting a green light from the US to strike Iran. However, these threats seem unconvincing to the Israeli public, who have become skeptical of the credibility of their political leaders based on their daily experiences with shelling.

Moshe Davidovich, head of the 'Mateh Asher' Regional Council, expressed this dissatisfaction by calling Netanyahu and his ministers liars during his interview with the official Hebrew radio. Davidovich affirmed that what is happening is not a ceasefire but a continuation of rockets and drones falling, which have not stopped throughout the past days, describing the current calm as illusory.

The local official pointed out that the Galilee has become empty of residents and tourists, while families refuse to send their children to schools due to insecurity. He criticized the restrictions imposed on the Israeli army due to instructions from the American administration, stressing that settlers will not accept remaining easy targets for attacks.

In the face of this escalating negative mood, Benjamin Netanyahu took the initiative to issue orders to the army to escalate and target Hezbollah sites forcefully during the Saturday holiday. Netanyahu aims with this step to absorb internal anger and prevent the party from solidifying its new equation, which could affect his political future.

Netanyahu finds himself in a critical position, forced to maneuver between external pressures represented by Trump's desire for calm, and internal pressures demanding military decisive action. Sources indicate that the Israeli Prime Minister is awaiting the failure of diplomatic paths to resume broader military operations to restore his lost prestige.

For his part, Reserve General Michael Milstein warned against Israeli illusions regarding the possibility of completely eliminating the doctrine and weapons of adversaries with swift strikes. Milstein emphasized in his analysis that decision-makers in Tel Aviv and Washington have not learned from past failures, stressing that confrontation is a long and complex process.

In a different political reading, military analyst Ron Ben Yishai believes that Israel has decided to cooperate with an American-Saudi vision aimed at politically weakening Hezbollah. This vision is based on pushing the Lebanese government towards negotiations that may ultimately lead to stripping the legitimacy of the party's weapons under strict international supervision.

This diplomatic plan requires Israeli concessions, most notably withdrawal from occupied territories in southern Lebanon in exchange for long-term security guarantees for the Galilee. Planners in Washington and Riyadh believe that a comprehensive agreement including Iran could force Hezbollah to put aside its heavy weapons and transition to purely political action.

However, facts indicate that Hezbollah is aware of these plans and is working to disrupt them by proving its ability to fight and defend Lebanese sovereignty. Observers believe that the party has decided to 'return blow for blow' to prove that it is still standing despite the severe blows it has received in recent months.

Reports indicate that the extension of the ceasefire for three weeks by Trump's decision has put Israel to a difficult test before its public, who demand security. While military sources continue to talk about striking reconstruction attempts, explosions in the north show that the party's ability to initiate is still present and effective.

The scene in southern Lebanon and northern occupied Palestine remains open to all possibilities, amidst a conflict of wills between Israel's desire to impose a new reality and Hezbollah's insistence on protecting its equations. The lost trust between settlers and their government remains the most prominent gap that deepens the occupation crisis in this ongoing confrontation.

We do not believe the state, nor do we trust the government. What is happening is not a ceasefire, but fire without cease, and it is clear that Hezbollah does not respect the agreement.