Economic circles in the occupation state are following with increasing concern the repercussions of the navigation crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and the American blockade on Iranian ports, as Hebrew forums monitor the routes of oil tankers departing the Arabian Gulf. Although the occupation has not been directly affected so far, estimates indicate that the crisis's reverberations are likely to reach Western markets and the Israeli interior soon.
Lior Bacalo, economic editor at Hebrew Channel 12, predicted that oil refineries in Europe and the United States would begin to feel a severe shortage of supplies within a few weeks. This shortage comes after Asian countries acquired record quantities of crude oil that were allocated for Western markets, amid uncertainty about the continued opening of vital waterways.
For his part, Professor Yossi Mann, an expert in Middle East studies at Bar-Ilan University, pointed out that the world is approaching a moment of truth where theoretical scarcity turns into a tangible reality. He explained that countries that relied on their strategic reserves during the past period have begun to lose this time margin as supply disruptions from the Gulf region continue.
Asian countries are the most vulnerable to direct damage due to their heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil, as the reserves of most of these countries, with the exception of China, cover only one month's consumption. The signs of the crisis have begun to appear clearly in the Philippines, which declared a national emergency in the energy sector after local fuel prices doubled unprecedentedly.
In contrast, China appears to be in a relatively safer position, possessing reserves sufficient for four months, while countries like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan rely on their massive financial capabilities to secure their needs at any cost. Nevertheless, these countries remain vulnerable to the sharp price fluctuations imposed by current market conditions and fierce competition for available shipments.
Developing countries such as India and Bangladesh face severe challenges in providing petroleum derivatives, as they lack sufficient budgets to cope with high prices. Bangladesh has resorted to imposing strict restrictions on the use of air conditioners to save electricity, in a step aimed at reducing fuel consumption and raising public awareness of the seriousness of the current stage.
In the context of austerity measures, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Indonesia ordered public sector employees to work from home to reduce pressure on transportation and fuel consumption. In India, heavy industries and plastic factories began reducing working days and temporarily laying off workers, due to high operating costs that made production economically unfeasible.
Despite Australia's wealth, it was forced to release parts of its fuel reserves and reduce taxes to cope with the shortage of derivatives imported from Asia. In Europe, the Netherlands announced its readiness to buy oil at any price to secure its needs, reflecting the panic that has begun to creep into developed economies as summer approaches.
Reports indicate that fluctuations in statements about opening and closing the Strait of Hormuz lead to sharp price volatility, but temporary declines are often related to futures contracts, not spot prices. Experts confirm that those who urgently need oil now are forced to pay exorbitant amounts that far exceed the prices announced on global exchanges.
Economic sources quoted officials at HSBC Bank as monitoring purchase operations where the value of a barrel of oil supplied to Sri Lanka reached about $286. This insane increase reflects the true scale of the crisis facing countries that do not have long-term contracts or sufficient reserves to secure their basic needs.
Israeli analysts warned that energy shocks do not stop at fuel but slowly spread to include the fertilizer and transport sectors, leading to global food prices. This sequence represents the biggest threat to stability in countries like Egypt and Jordan, where food subsidies act as a safety valve to prevent widespread social unrest.
According to the Hebrew report, any attack on Iran or additional military escalation could negatively impact the security of the occupation by destabilizing neighboring countries linked by peace agreements. Rising bread and energy prices could lead to popular protests that put ruling regimes in the face of difficult security challenges along the Israeli borders.
The Trump administration faces increasing pressure as oil shortages worsen, coinciding with Europe entering a race with Asian countries to secure natural gas for winter. This global competition has created what resembles an open 'price war,' in which Europeans appear to be in a weaker position against increasing Asian demand.
In conclusion, Iran is playing for time, exploiting the peak of its seasonal exports to China, whose demand for energy rises with the onset of summer. Every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed represents a dual pressure; it deprives Iran of vital income, but at the same time, it puts the entire world on the brink of an unprecedented energy crisis.
We are at the moment when the anticipated shortage turns into a real shortage, as time is running out after strategic reserves have been depleted.
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An Israeli Reading of the Oil Crisis: Warnings of Severe Shortages and Threats to Regional Stability