The World Bank said on Monday that it expects the average global oil price to reach $90 per barrel in the last quarter of 2023, and that the average price will fall to $81 during the year as a whole with a slowdown in demand. However, it warned that the escalation of the aggression against Gaza and the expansion of its area would push Prices skyrocket.

The latest report issued by the bank on commodity market expectations indicated that oil prices have risen by only 6% since the start of the aggression on Gaza, while the prices of agricultural commodities and most metals and other commodities “have moved only slightly.”

The Palestinian resistance, led by the “Izz al-Din al-Qassam” Brigades - the military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) - launched Operation “Al-Aqsa Flood” on October 7, in response to the aggression of the occupation forces and Israeli settlers against the Palestinians, and the continued raids on Al-Aqsa Mosque. Blessed.

This operation was followed by Israel launching a war on Gaza, which has entered its 24th day.

As the massacres against civilians continued, the toll of the aggression rose to more than 8,000 martyrs, including 3,347 children and 2,136 women, in addition to approximately 21,000 wounded, according to the Ministry of Health in Gaza.

3 possibilities

The World Bank report indicates three possibilities for risks, based on conflicts in the region since the 1970s, with a gradual increase in risks and their consequences:

Possibility of slight disruption

The potential for “minor disruption” could push oil prices into a range of $93-$102 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The impact of this possibility is equivalent to the decrease in oil production that occurred during the war in Libya in 2011, ranging between 500 thousand and two million barrels per day.

Moderate disturbance probability

The potential for "moderate disruption" - roughly equivalent to the impact of the 2003 Iraq War - would reduce global oil supplies by between 3 million and 5 million barrels per day, pushing prices up to between $109 and $121 per barrel.

High potential for disruption

The potential for “major disruption” is similar to the impact of the Arab oil embargo in 1973, which led to a decline in global oil supplies, ranging between 6 million and 8 million barrels per day.

This would initially lead to prices rising to between $140 and $157 per barrel, a jump of up to 75%.

Scenarios of the economic impacts of the Israeli conflict and the Palestinian resistance

“If oil prices continue to rise, this will inevitably mean higher food prices,” said Ayhan Kosi, deputy chief economist at the World Bank.

He continued, "If there was a severe shock in oil prices, this would lead to the growth of food inflation, which has already risen in many developing countries," according to what Reuters reported.

A Bloomberg report also drew 3 possibilities for the impact of Israel's war on Gaza on the global economy, in terms of growth rates, inflation, and oil prices.

The report talked about the possibility that this war would push prices to rise between $3 to $4 if the war in Gaza subsides, and a 10% increase if the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iranian-backed factions in Syria enter the line, while prices may reach $150 if a war occurs. Direct confrontation between Israel and Iran.

Oil prices fell by about 3% - today, Monday - as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting and manufacturing data in China this week, the impact of which outweighed the support derived from tension in the Middle East.

In evening trading, Brent crude futures fell 2.8% to about $86.7 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.3% to $82.7 per barrel.