Washington - "Al Quds" dot com - Saeed Erekat - Russia's invasion of Ukraine not only highlighted the key role to be played by Gulf oil producers, but also embodied the dangers of allowing Russia and China to gain influence with traditional partners that the United States or, in the case of Saudi Arabia, took for granted. Saudi Arabia, outcasts, this is what the newspaper "Foreign Policy" published today, Wednesday.

According to the report: “Diplomatic officials sent President Joe Biden on a packed and packed tour of the region to spread American flags and begin to repair the damage done to the region, but comforting though the headlines of the visit may sound like Saudi Arabia opening airspace to Israeli flights, and the defense coalition The atmosphere of the Middle East (which includes Israel and Arab countries) is beginning to take shape, so the trends do not seem comfortable to the same extent.

From hydrocarbons to Iran, Israel and Palestine and curbing Chinese and Russian influence and human rights, the current US administration faces remote prospects for success in a region marred by seemingly insurmountable challenges and which still has real doubts about US resolve and survival. Given the fraught relationship between Biden and the crown prince Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi Biden would not have been likely to visit Saudi Arabia had Russia not invaded Ukraine, disrupting global oil supplies and causing fuel prices to soar in the United States.

Saudi Arabia:

Nor did the administration want to make oil the focal point of the visit, lest it appear that the president was trading in hydrocarbons to give the crown prince an excuse for his appalling human rights record, and also because any increase in Saudi oil production is expected to be modest. Motivated by the need to Maintaining market discipline and the advantage of keeping prices high, the Saudis have no intention of breaching the OPEC+ agreement with Russia, in which the two parties agreed to slowly restore monthly collective production at a rate of just 400,000 barrels per day, and Riyadh is likely to exploit its spare capacity in light of the oil market Which may get tighter by the end of the year. Regarding the reduction in fuel prices, which are currently falling due to the slowdown in the Chinese economy, it is not clear what kind of impact any modest Saudi increase could have.”

The report notes, "Given the president's strong view that the twenty-first century will see conflict between democracies and authoritarian regimes, it would seem natural that Washington would want to foster relationships with important countries that could be vital in what could turn into a new, protracted Cold War." Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, for example, are not limited to autocratic rule, but they have also proven that they are keen to hedge and reluctant to choose the United States over Russia” and that “this is not only due to their dissatisfaction with the withdrawal of the United States from the region, but they also want to balance Their relations between Washington, Beijing and Moscow because it makes sense for their long-term interests.”

As for Israel, it is hedging its bets a bit, including by distancing itself from harsh criticism of Russia's activities in Ukraine and bringing Chinese investment into Haifa port.

That the United States will remain the main security partner for the Gulf states, but not at the expense of abandoning cooperation with Russia and China. Biden has raised the issue of human rights publicly and in private meetings with Saudi leaders, where he has spoken of Khashoggi's assassination. But in essence, Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia and the image of the fist salute that spread around the world represent Washington's closure of the Khashoggi file. Nearly four years after his murder, there is still no accountability for the personal role of the Crown Prince. In short, Mohammed bin Salman got away with a murder, and legitimacy was conferred on him. "It is now led by an American president who truly believes in affirming American values. Moreover, the Saudi regime accepts no dissent and wages a massive campaign to criminalize any dissent and detain, imprison and torture anyone who speaks against the regime."

And the report added: “According to Freedom House, the government has also launched a cross-border crackdown to harass and intimidate opponents in at least 14 countries. None of these issues were raised in the Biden meetings, and there was no expectation or pressure on the Saudis to change their behaviour. The Biden administration’s defense of human rights, democracy, and freedom against Russian aggression in Ukraine on the one hand, and then meeting with Arab authoritarian leaders on the other hand without any serious discussion about the need for political reform and respect for basic rights is very clear.In this way, the Biden administration has not only failed on this issue, Rather, it left the region with the decline of the status and credibility of the American president.

Iran and the Iranian nuclear file:

The report notes that “Making significant progress on the Iranian nuclear issue was too burdensome under any circumstances. Simply put, the answer to the Iranian nuclear file lies neither in Jerusalem nor in Jeddah but in Tehran – and now Iran is not interested in making a deal that Washington can accept. Hence, The focus of the visit was to create an environment that might pressure Tehran into making a decision while supporting alliances if it did not.Although the acrimony and resolve over Iran resonated strongly in Israel and in some Arab circles, it is also likely that they have heightened tensions and thus concerns among many countries. Gulf Arab states that military action against Iran could really happen - and if it did, they would be the most threatening.

And he shows, "Many of these Gulf countries enjoy important relations with Iran, and none of them wants to be the spearhead of the United States - let alone the Israelis - in a war with Iran. But the unspoken and sad truth is that American policy towards Iran is stuck between returning to the agreement." Nuclear conflict and conflict that Washington really wants to avoid, and Biden's visit did little to solve this conundrum.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict:

The report notes that “the Israeli-Palestinian issue received very brief attention, and the focus was mainly on the economy and institution-building. It is not clear whether Biden touched on his commitment to reopening the independent US consulate in Jerusalem – which worked, before it was closed by President Donald Trump In 2018, as the de facto US embassy to the Palestinians, Israeli settlement activity, which stopped during the visit, was not mentioned in Biden's public statements either. The Palestinians were also deeply disappointed that Biden failed to discuss any responsibility or accountability on the part of Israel for The killing of the (American-Palestinian) journalist, correspondent of Al-Jazeera Network, Sherine Abu Aqleh.In short, the peace process does not concern Biden or the Israeli government, and the Palestinians do not have a strategy to deal with the new regional alliance between Israel and the Arab Gulf states, which leaves them isolated, as was evident in May The past during the confrontation between Israel and Hamas, Washington will only intervene when it has to.

“Communication makes sense if it is creative, consistent, realistic, and based on the principle of reciprocity, where the United States can give gifts to its allies and partners, but it must get something in return. On this visit, there was a lot of giving on the part of Biden, but it did not happen.” I get a lot in return, while downplaying or fundamentally ignoring the hard issues — Israel, Palestine, human rights, Russia in Ukraine.”

The authors conclude, "This visit was merely an immediate, time-limited response to the demands created by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, domestic US economic challenges, and an uncertain path forward with Iran. Preoccupied with domestic challenges that lack consensus even within his own party, Biden has transformed within a few days to focus on Russia and China in this troubled region." They conclude their article by noting that Biden confirms that he will not move away from the Middle East and that the United States has returned, but the question after this visit is how long will this last?

The report was written by Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; And a member of the American negotiating team for peace talks in the Middle East during the eras of President Yosh Sr. and Bill Clinton, and Daniel Kurtzer, a former US ambassador to Egypt and Israel who teaches diplomacy and conflict resolution at the School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University