Strategically, Israel hopes that dismantling the Iranian nuclear program, through a large-scale military attack or negotiations, will deal a severe blow to the regime, leading to its downfall, "similar to what happened to the Gaddafi regime in Libya. Only then, according to the conviction in Israel, will the nuclear threat to us be removed, and as long as the regime exists, Iran will be able to restore the nuclear program," according to a report by security analyst Ron Ben-Yishai in the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper on Friday.

There is a prevailing belief within the Israeli security establishment that if Israel does not act within a few months to destroy the Iranian nuclear program, it will miss a “historic opportunity.” According to the report, “the assessments of all Israeli security officials, as well as many officials in the Pentagon and American intelligence agencies, are that the achievements of the Iron Swords War (which Israel has been waging on several fronts since October 7), especially the recent attack in Iran, along with the economic and social nadir it is facing, open a window of opportunity to attack and completely destroy the nuclear facilities.”

The report added that "the window of opportunity will be open for a short period, perhaps only months. Once it closes, the attack will be much less effective, and the attacker will pay a heavy price. Another important consideration is that the term of US Central Command Commander Michael Kurilla, who supports attacking nuclear facilities, will end in several months, and it is not possible to know the position of his successor in the position and the extent to which he can be relied upon to support Israel on this issue."

The report indicated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted to launch the attack as soon as possible, and that the Israeli security establishment had begun developing "an alternative plan for a large-scale air attack that would require American assistance, not only to defend Israel from an Iranian response, but also on the offensive side."

According to the report, there is no anger in Israel over the New York Times report yesterday that US President Donald Trump, during his meeting with Netanyahu last week, prevented Israel from attacking Iran now. Israel understands that leaking Trump's position to the American newspaper was intended to "put pressure on Iran and highlight the existence of a serious and specific military threat."

On the other hand, Israelis fear that Trump, despite his threats against Iran and the buildup of American military forces in the region, will not resort to military action against Iran later, lest he pose a threat to American forces in the region. Therefore, they believe that "Trump will prefer to compromise on a bad nuclear agreement, simply so he can boast of a diplomatic achievement."

According to Israeli estimates, one of two scenarios will materialize. The first, and preferred by Israel, is that negotiations between the United States and Iran reach a dead end, leading to a US-Israeli military operation against Iran. Iran will then be "more flexible and open to accepting US-Israeli demands regarding its nuclear and missile disarmament, and negotiations will then resume in a manner that allows for results acceptable to Israel."

The second possibility, which Israel is most concerned about, according to the report, is that Trump will move toward an interim agreement with Iran before his visit to the region next month. "Such an agreement would prevent a military operation and would not achieve the goal Israel seeks. The attack plan covered in the New York Times report yesterday aims to bring about the downfall of the regime, not just to set back the race to the bomb by a year or two. To achieve this, all components of Iran's power must be destroyed—nuclear facilities, its missile-making system, and Revolutionary Guard bases. For this reason, Israel needs American operational assistance."

The report stated that CIA Director John Ratcliffe, during his visit to Israel last week, suggested that if a large-scale attack against Iran is not launched, it is possible to carry out large-scale cyber sabotage operations against the Iranian nuclear program, similar to the US-Israeli operation carried out in 2006.

The report added that Israeli political officials are publicly stating that they are not sure where Trump is going, "or whether the US president and his envoy (Steve Witkoff) know what they want. Although Israel will have an independent and effective offensive capability against Iranian nuclear facilities within a relatively short period, it is not at all certain that Trump, who has so far blocked a joint plan, will give the green light. It is very possible that the only opportunity will be wasted and the window of opportunity for regime change in Iran will close."