Paris - (AFP) - Is Russia "more isolated than ever"? Two months after the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, US President Joe Biden's assertion seems a distant hope, with part of the international community still reluctant to condemn Moscow.

"There is a very clear isolation of Russia from the Western bloc, especially because of the successive series of sanctions that have complicated trade and financial exchanges," Sylvie Mattelli, deputy director of the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS), confirms.

"However, the situation is completely different with regard to Russia's isolation on the international scene, with a number of countries adhering to extreme caution and refusing to bow to Western pressure," the French researcher adds.

The Russian military offensive, which began on February 24, sparked immediate condemnation from the Europeans and Americans, who promised Moscow to isolate it and impose "unprecedented" sanctions on it.

In the following weeks, NATO and European Union airspace were closed to Russian aircraft, and the United States banned oil and gas imports from Russia. At the same time, Russian banks were excluded from the international payment system SWIFT.

However, the picture is different outside the Western bloc. On March 2, at the United Nations General Assembly, India and South Africa, in particular, abstained from voting on a draft resolution calling for Russia to withdraw from Ukraine.

In Latin America, Brazil and Mexico refuse to participate in the sanctions.
"There is a growing number of countries that want to assert their independence despite their desire for closer cooperation with the West and their need for Western support," Chris Landsberg, professor of international relations at the University of Johannesburg, told Washington Post columns.

For his part, former Chilean ambassador to India and South Africa Jorge Heine said, "Condemning the invasion of Ukraine is one thing, waging an economic war against Russia is another, and many countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia are not ready to take this step." He added that those countries "do not want to be pushed to take a position that contradicts their interests."

This is the case of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have so far avoided taking a stand against Russia.

India also adhered to the same position, considering that "the war imposed an unwelcome choice between the West and Russia, a choice that it avoids at all costs," explains Shivshankar Menon, advisor to former Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

In an article published in early April titled "Wishes of a Free World: Are Democracies Really United Against Russia?", Menon asserts that "the United States is an essential and indispensable partner in the context of India's modernization, but Russia remains an important partner for geopolitical and military reasons."

On the ground, the Western powers are sparing no effort to increase pressure on Moscow.

The pressure has reached UNESCO, as some forty countries have called in recent months to move the venue for the Heritage Committee's meeting, which is scheduled to be held in Russia in June.

Finally, a compromise was reached with the announcement of postponing the annual meeting to an unspecified date, and this may mean that Russia can host the meeting once the military offensive ends.

The same pressures were brought to bear on the G20, but Indonesia, which it chairs, refused to exclude Russia from it in the name of neutrality.
The absence of short-term effects of Western economic sanctions on the ongoing conflict also does not help convince wavering states.

"Yes, the sanctions are harsh, but they do not deter (Russian President Vladimir) Putin from extending his siege of Mariupol... or bombing other cities," said Judy Dempsey, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment in Europe.

"If the goal was to pressure Putin into withdrawing from Ukraine, it clearly didn't work," Sylvie Mattelli adds.

It will take a few more months to gauge the impact of the sanctions on the Russian economy in the medium and long term.

"The situation of the Russian economy will be more clear in June and July," Alexey Vedev, a financial analyst at the Russian Gaidar Institute, said, noting that "the economy is still operating on the basis of its reserves."

"These reserves are shrinking, but as long as they are still there, the sanctions will not be fully felt," he added.