ARAB AND WORLD
Wed 15 Mar 2023 8:40 pm - Jerusalem Time
A meeting between Erdogan and Putin in Sochi to discuss Ukraine and Syria
Istanbul - (AFP) - The end of the war in Ukraine and perhaps the start of another war in Syria will dominate the new meeting Friday in Russia between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Three weeks after their meeting in Tehran, the Turkish head of state is meeting his Russian counterpart in Sochi on the Black Sea, building on his recent diplomatic success in securing the international agreement to resume Ukrainian grain exports through the Bosphorus.
And in Tehran last month, the Russian president clearly warned him against any further military operations in Syria aimed at pushing back Kurdish fighters in the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its allies.
Analysts believe that these repeated differences form part of the "competitive cooperation" that defined the relationship between the two presidents twenty years ago.
Asli Aydintasbas, a member of the European Council on Foreign Relations, wrote recently that "Russia's war against Ukraine has restored the image that Turkey wants for itself, the image of the main geopolitical actor, and brought Erdogan back to the fore."
And she believed that "most Turks stand their country's semi-neutral position between East and West."
Turkey's desire to remain neutral towards Moscow on the issue of Ukraine, even though it is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), is bearing fruit.
After months of efforts, Moscow and Kiev signed a UN-backed agreement in Istanbul that allowed for the first shipment of corn from Odessa since the invasion began on February 24 to supply Lebanon, with other shipments to follow, alleviating fears of a global food crisis.
Turkey now wants to try to open the door to negotiations in Istanbul, if possible, for a truce between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents, Volodymyr Zelensky.
"We discussed (to see) whether the grain deal could be an opportunity for a permanent ceasefire," Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Wednesday after meeting his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Asia.
However, these efforts are complicated by Ankara's repeated threats of a military operation in Syria, where Russian and Turkish interests collide.
Moscow has largely supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the face of groups backed in part by Turkey.
Today, Erdogan wants to cross the border again to create a security zone in a sector where Russian forces patrol, but he wants to expel the Kurdish groups he considers "terrorists" from it.
"The (Friday) meeting will likely focus on a possible incursion into Syria for which Turkey did not get a green light from Russia or Iran," said international relations expert Soli Ozel of Has University in Istanbul.
"Russia should get something in return," he said.
Turkish media believes that what Putin really wants are drones.
Turkey has provided Ukraine with its famous "Bayraktar TB2" combat aircraft, which have proven effective against Russian tanks.
US officials said that a Russian delegation visited Iran to discuss the purchase of hundreds of drones. Erdogan himself, after his return from Tehran, conveyed a request from Putin in this direction.
But a Turkish official corrected this information, saying that the Turkish president was joking.
However, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov painted a picture of the idea, stressing that "military and technological cooperation is always on the agenda of the two countries."
Finally, there is still a potential source of tension between the two presidents, who are known for their chronic delay in meetings.
In Tehran, Erdogan made Vladimir Putin wait alone for fifty seconds, standing in a room in front of the official Turkish news agency's camera, which focused on his tense face.
Many saw that this was the Turkish president's response to the delay imposed on him by the Kremlin president for about two minutes in 2020.
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A meeting between Erdogan and Putin in Sochi to discuss Ukraine and Syria