Beijing - (AFP) - China's military maneuvers near Taiwan gave signs of strengthening the capabilities of its army, and outlined plans to impose a blockade on the self-governing island, in case it decided to launch a large-scale attack on Taipei territory.

The visit to Taiwan this week by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the second in the hierarchy of holding the presidency in case of vacancy, angered China, which responded by launching extensive maneuvers around the island, although this might expose its military plans to its opponents such as the United States and its allies in the region.

Fighters, helicopters and ships will take part in the military exercises, which will extend until Sunday, and aim to simulate imposing a blockade on Taiwan and test "attacking targets at sea," according to the official Chinese news agency, Xinhua.

This is the first time that the Chinese maneuvers have come so close to Taiwan, as exercises are taking place less than 20 km from the coast of the island.

In another unprecedented step, the maneuvers include areas of eastern Taiwan that are of strategic importance in supplying military forces to the island, in addition to any possible US reinforcements in the event that Washington's ally is attacked by China.

Taiwan enjoys self-rule, but China considers it an integral part of its territory, and has threatened to regain control over it eventually, even by force.
After it was reported for a long time that the "siege scenario" might be one of the Chinese strategies adopted in the event of an attack on the island, this week's maneuvers revealed part of the practical side of this plan.

The blockade, if imposed, will aim to prevent commercial and military ships and aircraft from entering or leaving Taiwan, and to prevent any US forces stationed in the region from supporting the Taiwanese side.

Chinese military analyst Song Jongping says that the Chinese army "of course has the capabilities to impose such a blockade."
"We saw during the current maneuvers that the Taiwanese fighter jets and warships have no ability to take off or sail from their ports," he told AFP.

On Thursday, the Chinese army launched more than ten ballistic missiles that hit several areas in the vicinity of Taiwan, and a number of them flew into the air over the island, according to Chinese state television reported Friday.

According to "Xinhua", China has recruited more than 100 warplanes and more than ten frigates and destroyers, including the "J-20" fighter that cannot be detected by radar systems, and the Type 055 destroyer, which are considered the crown jewel of its naval and air forces.

Beyond testing equipment, the maneuvers allow for better coordination between military units such as land, sea, air and missile forces, in addition to strategic support entrusted to electronic warfare.

The maneuvers are a pivotal test for the "Eastern Theater of Chinese Army Operations," which was established in 2016, and oversees the entire eastern sea space of the country, which includes Taiwan.

John Blaxland, a professor of international security at the Australian National University, believes that the maneuvers reveal the "solid capabilities" of China, and that its army cannot be considered "an inexperienced or incapable force (...) It is clear that they have the ability to coordinate between land and sea, and to deploy systems effective missile.

He told AFP that the maneuvers send a message to Taiwan, the United States and Japan that China has "what enables it to implement what it threatens to do."

However, what China is doing during the maneuvers "is being studied and examined closely to draw lessons by China, the United States, Japan and others."

During a previous crisis over the Taiwan Strait between 1995 and 1996, the US Navy pushed ships through the waterway and stationed an aircraft carrier near the island.

However, things are different this time.

"The US government is taking careful steps to avoid an unwanted escalation," said Lonnie Henley, a former CIA operative and professor at the Elliott School of International Studies.

One of the reasons for this caution is also the increase in China's military capabilities compared to 1996, when it was unable to prevent the entry of US naval vessels.

Grant Nosham, a former US Navy officer and researcher at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies, goes further, asserting that the capabilities of the Chinese army "may exceed US capabilities in some areas."

And he warns that "if the battle is confined to the area around Taiwan, the Chinese navy today is a very dangerous adversary... If the Americans and the Japanese do not intervene for some reason, things will be very difficult for Taiwan."

Analysts believe that China's repeated breaches of the "middle line" in the Taiwan Strait between the mainland and the island, which Beijing does not recognize, also reflects growing Chinese confidence in its capabilities.

And Blaxland believes that China, until the current period, "has never been comfortable with pushing its demands on the middle line," adding, "We can expect them to continue to work as if the middle line has no validity."
"This has been the case for a while, but it is now accelerating," he continues.