Logo
Logo
Logo
Logo
Logo
Logo
Logo
Logo
Logo

ARAB AND WORLD

Mon 28 Apr 2025 10:14 am - Jerusalem Time

Israel's war on Gaza threatens the stability of Egypt and Jordan


According to a report in the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, two of Israel's regional partners, Jordan and Egypt, are facing growing anger among their people as the Israeli military expands its war against Hamas in Gaza, and far-right politicians in Israel have floated the idea of deporting Palestinians from the territory.


In a sign of mounting pressure, the Jordanian government on Wednesday imposed a blanket ban on the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist political movement with significant influence in parts of the Arab world. Several members of the group were arrested earlier this month on charges of planning attacks against Jordanian national security. The Brotherhood has denied any connection to the alleged plots.


The Jordanian capital, Amman, has witnessed repeated protests, including public criticism of the government and its relationship with Israel. Protesters have sometimes gathered near the US and Israeli embassies, where they have clashed with Jordanian forces.


While Egypt has maintained a tight grip on the Palestinians, it has occasionally allowed Egyptians to vent their anger in carefully managed demonstrations that have focused solely on solidarity with the Palestinians—without criticizing the government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. The unrest poses a challenge to the leadership of the two Arab states, which are vital security partners of the United States in the region. Israel also relies on Cairo and Amman to crush non-state armed groups and secure its longer borders. In Israel's other neighbors, Lebanon and Syria, Hezbollah and Palestinian factions have long held sway and have used those countries to launch attacks on Israel.


The newspaper says: "The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and Sisi's rule in Egypt are caught in some of the most sensitive and troubling situations in the region. Sisi seized power in a coup that ousted a president backed by the Muslim Brotherhood."


It is noteworthy that after a series of wars between the 1940s and 1970s, Egypt and Jordan signed peace treaties with Israel in 1979 and 1994, respectively. This peace brought government-level trade, security, and intelligence coordination, as well as diplomatic relations, but it did not extend to broad segments of the Jordanian and Egyptian populations, who widely view Israel as a sworn enemy. Israel's war of extermination in Gaza further strained this fragile and cold peace, as Arab states were forced to appease their own peoples' discontent while maintaining and reaping the economic and security benefits of their relations with Israel.


Some members of the right-wing Israeli government pushed for the transfer of Palestinians from the West Bank to Jordan, and Palestinians in Gaza to Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. This fueled popular anger over the war raging in these two countries, prompting Amman and Cairo to confront Israel.


Egyptian officials warned Israel that Cairo could go as far as suspending the 1979 peace treaty if Palestinians were pushed into Sinai. Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said that displacing Palestinians to Jordan would be considered an act of war.


"Jordan's survival depends on what Israel does, and what the Egyptian regime does," Joost Hiltermann, a special advisor with the Middle East program at the International Crisis Group, a think tank, told the newspaper. "If Israel pushes Palestinians from Gaza into Sinai, and the regime fails to stem the tide, it could collapse." If Israel pushes West Bank Palestinians into Jordan, it could spell the end of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.


Egypt accused Israel of violating its treaty by seizing a corridor along its border (the Philadelphi Corridor) and openly reinforced its military presence in the Sinai Peninsula. It refused to accredit the newly appointed Israeli ambassador to Egypt and has not sent a new ambassador to Israel. Sisi also refuses to speak with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by phone, according to Egyptian officials. For its part, Jordan recalled its ambassador from Israel at the beginning of the war.


The newspaper says, "Israel is concerned about instability in Egypt, and particularly in Jordan, which constitutes a barrier to Iran and its proxies to the east, and views the kingdom's stability as essential to its security. Both countries are important regional security partners for Israel."


Millions of Jordanians are of Palestinian origin, and many express deep support for the Palestinian cause, and even for Hamas, which itself emerged from the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1980s.


Support also extends to the Muslim Brotherhood. The Islamic Action Front, its political arm in Jordan, swept last year's parliamentary elections and now holds the largest bloc in the House of Representatives. The party's future remains uncertain, as Jordan's crackdown on the Brotherhood makes the country's intolerance toward the group comparable to that of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and many other countries in the region.


The newspaper quotes Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow at the Chatham House think tank specializing in international affairs, as saying: "There is no doubt that Israel's war on Gaza played a major role in mobilizing support" for the Islamic Action Front. "The outcome was a shock to the government."


Despite opposition from a large portion of their populations, the Jordanian and Egyptian governments have quietly maintained their relationship with Israel through security coordination and trade, including energy and water, which are scarce in Jordan.


It's worth noting that Jordan, Egypt, and Israel are among the top five recipients of US foreign aid in the world, and these countries maintain strong military ties with the United States. Jordan hosts US forces and last year assisted the US in shooting down Iranian missiles bound for Israel, sparking criticism of the monarchy.


In Egypt, as in Jordan, says Hiltermann, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, “the public sympathizes strongly with the people of Gaza.”


As is the case elsewhere in the region, regimes express this view, but they take a different perspective. The Egyptian government despises the Muslim Brotherhood, and thus Hamas, and needs Israeli support and technology.


However, Egypt has cracked down on pro-Palestinian solidarity campaigns, fearing that such activity could fuel dissent that could escalate into demonstrations that threaten the regime. Late last year, Egyptian criminal courts renewed the detention of more than 170 pro-Palestinian activists arrested in connection with the protests.


In Jordan, the Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliates have been among the most prominent groups organizing recurring protests. Analysts say the blanket ban on the group, which also prohibits attendance at or coverage of its protests, aligns Jordan with the Egyptian approach.


"The Muslim Brotherhood has the ability to mobilize the street, and this worries the government," Hassan Abu Haniya, an Amman-based expert on Islamist groups, told the newspaper. "People want serious action—severing ties (with Israel), sanctions, and severe consequences. But the state is tightening the noose on the Brotherhood, either to intimidate people or to expel them."

Tags

Share your opinion

Israel's war on Gaza threatens the stability of Egypt and Jordan

MORE FROM ARAB AND WORLD