The Road to Prosperity

Browsing social media[1] I have recently come across a map showing all the countries with GDP per capita[2] higher than Poland’s back in 1990 and in 2018. The difference was striking. While 35 years ago there were quite a few such countries not only in Europe but also in South America, Asia and Africa, in time their number has significantly decreased. In 2018 there were no longer any South American or African states highlighted on the map.

By 2025, the group has shrunk even further. According to IMF’s data Poland’s GDP in 1990 was a mere $6,690 in current dollars. By 2024 it grew almost 8-fold to $51,630[3]. All that in just three decades - one generation. And it goes on. According to the European Commission’s forecast, in the years 2024-2025 Polish economy will be the fastest growing large economy in the European Union[4]. 

How did it happen? Apart from the hard work of our citizens, two major factors – or, to be more precise, two institutions – contributed to the economic success: NATO and the European Union. 

The first, which Poland joined in 1999, provided security guarantees and helped overcome decades-old division between Eastern and Western Europe. The second, which we joined five years later, took the process of easing long-standing disparities one step further. It granted new member states access to so-called “cohesion funds” but most importantly to the common European market. 

Sources of success

After the fall of communism in Poland in 1989 and the return of messy democratic politics, despite all day-to-day political squabbles one thing remained constant no matter who was in power – Poland’s determination to join the two aforementioned organizations. Why? 

We are a great nation but a medium-size country. We cherish our long history - this year marks a millennium since the coronation of our first king - but our population is much smaller than that of merely Beijing and Shanghai combined. Poland needs allies to boost its potential on the international stage. 

What’s been true for Poland - in 1990 a poor country coming out of four decades of Russian domination and economic mismanagement – might well be true for many of the so-called “middle powers” in Asia, Africa and South America looking for room to grow. 

These countries often need what Poland desperately needed 35 years ago and still profits from: good governance, foreign investments with no strings attached, but above all political stability, rule of law, and predictable international environment with neighbors eager not to wage wars but work together for mutual benefit. In fact, these factors can benefit every country, no matter the level of their GDP.

Today the international order is being challenged on multiple fronts. Sometimes for good reasons. Decades-old institutions - including the UN and its Security Council - are unrepresentative of the global community and incapable of dealing with the challenges we face. What they need, however is to be thoroughly reformed, not entirely rejected.

Imperialist illusions

To those desperate for change force might look appealing. It would be a mistake. Abandoning forums for international dialogue and resorting to violence will not get us far.

Take Russia’s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine. According to Kremlin’s propaganda it is a justified reaction to western imperialism allegedly threatening Russia’s security. In fact, it is a modern-day colonial war against Ukrainian people who – just like us Poles 30 years ago – want a better life and realize they can never achieve this goal by going back to subjugation to Russia. That is what they are being punished for – an effort to free themselves from the control of a former metropolis. Kremlin’s aggression is a desperate struggle of a failing empire to restore its sphere of influence. 

 Russian victory - may it never come - would not create a more just global order. It wouldn’t benefit countries dissatisfied with where things stand now. It wouldn’t even bring about a more just and prosperous Russia. Suffice to say there are now more political prisoners in Russia than there were in the 1980’s when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan. There are many more casualties as well. War is hardly ever a shortcut to prosperity. Over the last millennium Poland experienced its share of invasions and uprisings against occupying forces. What finally brought us prosperity were three decades of peace, predictability, international cooperation and political stability.  That is why on assuming the presidency of the Council of the European Union Poland made its priority clear – security in its many dimensions, from military, through economic to digital. Europe safe, prosperous and open for business can benefit not only Europeans but a greater global community. Just as it benefited Poland over the last three decades. It may sound dull but it worked. Just look at the numbers.  

Radosław Sikorski is Poland’s foreign minister.     

[1] https://www.facebook.com/onlmaps/photos/countries-with-higher-gdp-per-capita-than-poland-1990-vs-2018/1025963969571204/?_rdr[2] in Purchasing Power Parity[3] GDP per capita, current prices, purchasing power parity; international dollars per capita [Source: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPPC@WEO/POL?zoom=POL&highlight=POL][4] https://www.gov.pl/web/finanse/jesienne-prognozy-gospodarcze-komisji-europejskiej