The "Shock and Awe" attack... Will it achieve its goals?

President Donald Trump’s “shock and awe” assault on many key institutions in Washington has been somewhat successful. His cabinet picks, mass expulsions of immigrants, threats to federal employees, and executive orders have been a show of force designed to confuse and demoralize his opponents. Although Trump’s focus has been primarily on the domestic front, he has made some blunt foreign policy statements, such as threatening to reclaim the Panama Canal and force Denmark to sell Greenland. But as the reactions from Denmark, Canada, and Panama have shown, these “tests” and challenges have not had the same impact as his domestic decisions.

In another foreign policy gambit, Trump threw a bombshell into the middle of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, suggesting that before reconstruction could begin, it would be necessary to “cleanse Gaza.” He reportedly tried to pressure Jordan and Egypt to accept the bulk of the Palestinians from Gaza, with Albania and Indonesia considered as possible alternatives for resettlement. But none of these countries agreed to participate in this bizarre scheme. Beyond the simple refusal, the Palestinians, preoccupied with their emotional return to northern Gaza and resisting the increasingly aggressive occupation in the West Bank, largely ignored Trump’s bait.

Let us be clear: if the ceasefire holds and the reconstruction phase moves on, there are serious issues that must be addressed, including two million homeless Palestinians, hundreds of thousands of destroyed homes and buildings, which it is believed will take two or three years to clear or repurpose the rubble, and decades to build enough housing.

If you didn’t know Trump or his Israeli allies, you might think he was appealing to Gaza’s neighbors to show mercy on its displaced people and shelter them until it can be rebuilt. But Trump has shown no sign of being moved by the suffering of the Palestinians, and the idea of building a resort on Gaza’s shores might be more appealing to him.

Netanyahu’s coalition clearly wants to expel the Palestinians from Gaza. Thus, Trump’s “proposal” to move the Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan sounds like his blessing for a new Nakba. In the Nakba of 1948, 700,000 Palestinians were forcibly expelled from their homes, and Israel then demolished more than 420 Palestinian villages to ensure that they could not return.

This second Nakba would reverse the process, with Israel first demolishing entire neighborhoods in Gaza, then “transferring” two million Palestinians from their homeland. It is best not to assume that Netanyahu, his coalition, and their backers in Washington will not do the worst possible thing. Trump may try to bring “shock and awe” to the Middle East, or he may float the idea of transfer as part of reconstruction. But it is more likely to be Netanyahu’s “trial balloon,” testing regional acceptance of a plan for mass displacement to “solve” the Palestinian problem. Neither the Palestinians nor their supporters reacted with outrage to Trump’s “proposal.”

No clear plan has been proposed for clearing the rubble and rebuilding with two million Palestinians still in place. Accepting any resettlement and reconstruction plan requires at least two conditions: First, Israel must withdraw completely from Gaza, relinquishing control over entry and exit from the Strip. This precondition would allow Palestinians to feel confident that if they leave Gaza, they will be guaranteed a right of return. Second, some Palestinians returning to the north have difficulty identifying the locations of their former homes. To avoid confusion or disputes, if municipal records no longer exist, an effort should be made to map Gaza so that Palestinians can locate their homes and businesses.

Without solid guarantees of return and a plan to facilitate return to specific locations, resettlement and reconstruction efforts will only deepen the problems. For more than a century, the Palestinians have been mere pawns in the game of Western powers and the Zionist movement. Despite being dispersed, dispossessed of their lands, and scattered among countries, their national identity and connection to their land have not weakened but have grown stronger, making them a continuing thorn in the side of their oppressors. The United States must recognize this reality and, instead of adding to the suffering of the Palestinians, develop a humanitarian plan to compel Israel to end the occupation and implement the Palestinian rights that have long been denied to them.