While the far-right Deputy Mayor of West Jerusalem, Arieh King, gathered with his colleagues in front of the offices of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) to celebrate the start of the ban on the agency’s work in Israel, sources in Tel Aviv confirmed that there is confusion in the government about the decision to implement the ban and who will replace it. They have contacted the US State Department to make contacts on the issue with international bodies.

Israeli and Palestinian parties fear that a vacuum will emerge, starting in early February, that threatens the collapse of medical, educational and environmental services in the refugee camps as a result of the agency being banned and its senior staff leaving the region.

On October 28, 2024, the Israeli government passed two laws in the Knesset (parliament) to stop UNRWA’s activities. These laws received broad public support and were approved by a cross-party majority in the Knesset, despite pressure from the international community to prevent the move.

The first law prohibits UNRWA from operating branches, providing services, or engaging in any type of activity directly or indirectly on the sovereign territory of the State of Israel. This means that UNRWA will no longer be able to operate in East Jerusalem, and will be forced to cease all its activities in the city.

The second law prohibits authorities, bodies, and persons holding public office according to the law from establishing any contact with UNRWA or its representatives. This means that Israeli officials will not be able to communicate with UNRWA or any of its affiliates.

Accordingly, as of the end of January, the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Interior will not be able to issue entry or work permits to UNRWA employees. At ports and customs, they will not be able to receive or deal with UNRWA goods; banks in Israel will have difficulty providing banking services to them, and the Israeli military will be forced to sever working relations with them and coordinate activities with Palestinian entities through UNRWA.

The two laws are supposed to come into effect, banning the agency's activities in Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and prohibiting any relationship between it and state authorities.

However, apart from repeated statements against these laws, the international community and the countries that fund the agency have no effective means to prevent this process. On Friday, 25 international employees working for the agency in the West Bank and East Jerusalem will leave after their entry visas expire.

In the Gaza Strip, Israel is determined not to allow new UNRWA employees to enter, but those who are there have no intention of leaving, and UNRWA plans to continue working there as long as possible.

UNRWA also announced that it does not intend to evacuate the buildings in which it is located in East Jerusalem, despite an explicit request from Israel that found explicit support from the United States. This is expected to be a cause for clashes with citizens affected by the Israeli decision.

But the problem is that in Israel, there is still no clear understanding of how these laws will be implemented. In a session held this week in the Finance Committee, it became clear that the Bank of Israel does not know whether the severing of ties with UNRWA also applies to banks.

This question could roll over and reach the government's legal advisor, and the prevailing assumption is that for this matter the banks are not considered an "authority" of the state.

According to UNRWA, Israel’s Bank Leumi has frozen $2.8 million belonging to the agency. It is unclear whether and how the state will deal with UNRWA’s refusal to evacuate its buildings in East Jerusalem. This question could very well end up in court. Then it will create a trap in the spirit of the times: “Is the court, which is undoubtedly a state authority, authorized to discuss matters related to UNRWA, which – according to the new laws – it is not authorized to contact?”

Haaretz reported on Thursday that Israel is trying to replace UNRWA with other UN agencies, but the international organization rejects this for political and anti-Israel considerations.

In contrast, the UN says that UNRWA's sole mandate, which enables it, among other things, to employ tens of thousands of descendants of Palestinian refugees, is non-replaceable, and certainly not by administrative decision.

Israel's Dilemma

In order to change the regimes and replace the organization founded in 1949, a new resolution from the General Assembly is needed. In any case, neither Israel nor the United Nations seems to expect to back down from their positions anytime soon. The newspaper adds that Israel has put itself in a bind; it is now paralyzing an institution like UNRWA, which is the second largest employer in the occupied territories.

According to many in the international community and in the agency itself, the possibility of completely separating UNRWA from the “Hamas” context can only occur when its functions are transferred to a Palestinian state, or at least to the Palestinian Authority, “the state that is on the way.”

This is exactly the solution that the Netanyahu government is doing everything it can to obstruct.

From a historical-political perspective, for Israel, the thwarting of UNRWA’s activities seems to be linked to removing the refugee issue – for which the agency was established – from the agenda. But the issue is not expected to be taken off the stage without the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Therefore, the process of closing UNRWA is a kind of deception, and is only expected to increase the chaos in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, especially during a period of dramatic historical process, when Israel is in dire need of calm and order, however fragile that may be.