Ali Al-Awar: Prisoner exchange deal is close, and regional and international calculations have overcome the personal calculations of both parties

Dr. Suleiman Abu Sitta: The atmosphere seems more positive compared to previous times and there are indications of an imminent exchange deal

Adel Shedid: Netanyahu is trying to blackmail Trump to obtain a large political price, whether in Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank or Gaza

Abdul Marouf: A series of regional and international variables contributed to pushing the parties towards an agreement on the exchange deal

Hani Al-Gamal: Trump sending a special envoy despite not officially assuming power reflects his seriousness in achieving progress on sensitive files

Ismail Muslimani: The deal has a political character par excellence, contrary to Netanyahu’s desire, who tried to give it a security character

Several indicators indicate that decisive progress has been achieved in the ongoing negotiations to complete a prisoner exchange deal between Israel and Hamas. The first is the leaked draft of the terms of the deal and its three implementation stages, each of which extends to forty-two days. It includes a state of calm and the withdrawal of the occupation forces from the central Gaza Strip to the eastern border areas, the entry of relief aid, the rehabilitation of infrastructure and the return of citizens to their areas, and the implementation of exchange operations for living and dead prisoners, in stages and according to agreed-upon criteria.

There is another indicator that is no less important, and makes talk about the expected deal different this time, which is the frantic movement towards Doha, especially the sending of envoys by the incoming US President Donald Trump even before his term begins, in addition to the envoys of the current President Joe Biden.

Writers and analysts who spoke to “Y” said that the atmosphere seems more positive compared to previous times, and there are indications of an imminent exchange deal, and that regional and international calculations have overcome the personal calculations of both parties, indicating that Netanyahu is trying to blackmail Trump to obtain a large political price, whether in Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank or Gaza.

Netanyahu and Hamas seek to maintain their political existence

“It seems that we are facing a prisoner exchange deal soon, as all parties have presented the final version of the ceasefire agreement, and it has been sent to Hamas and Israel. Everyone is now waiting for the response of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,” said Ali Al-Awar, a political analyst specializing in resolving regional and international conflicts.

Al-Awar added: "In my estimation, the importance of this deal lies in the desire of all parties to maintain their existence; Netanyahu seeks to maintain his political existence, and Hamas wants to remain an essential part of the Palestinian political system, and regional and international calculations have overcome the personal calculations of both parties."

Al-Awar said, “The entry of US President Donald Trump as a major variable in this deal, and the arrival of his representative, reflects the importance of this historic moment, especially with Trump’s inauguration in the White House approaching. Everyone is seeking to participate in this historic event.”

Al-Awar pointed out that there is a new equation related to political arrangements concerning the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem.

He said: “Hamas seeks to maintain its existence to remain an important part of the Palestinian political system, while Netanyahu aims to maintain his presence in the international community, relying on Trump’s support, which will give him political, diplomatic and legal cover. Thus, Netanyahu may escape legal prosecution, especially since he is wanted by international justice and the International Criminal Court.”

He added: "The most important thing for Netanyahu now is to restore Israel's image internationally, after the number of Palestinian victims in the Gaza Strip reached more than one hundred and fifty thousand martyrs and wounded."

He believed that the pivotal question is: Will Netanyahu abide by the terms of the deal, including the prisoner exchange deal and not returning to war in Gaza?

Al-Awar replied: “In my estimation, yes. There is a great influence from the international community and clear pressure from US President Trump, which will push Netanyahu to commit to the deal. It is expected that the Israeli army will begin withdrawing from the Gaza Strip, to open the way for a new phase that includes reconstruction, but within new political arrangements.”

Al-Awar added: "Netanyahu will not re-launch the war on Gaza again, because his focus is now on the West Bank and new political arrangements there. The Gaza Strip is not in his strategic calculations, but he is waiting for important political gifts from Trump, most notably normalization with Saudi Arabia."

Al-Awar stressed that "full normalization with Saudi Arabia would be the greatest gift for Netanyahu, coinciding with a political initiative presented by Trump, based on recognizing a Palestinian state in exchange for normalization."

Smotrich's position on the deal and the future of Netanyahu's government

In turn, Dr. Suleiman Abu Sitta, writer and political analyst, said: Current indicators point to the possibility of the prisoner exchange deal being completed soon, noting that the atmosphere seems more positive compared to previous times.

However, he pointed out that the matter has not yet been decided due to the recent statements of Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who announced his rejection of the deal, which could lead to the dismantling of Benjamin Netanyahu's government and political recalculations.

Abu Sitta explained that some of the terms related to the deal have begun to appear publicly through unconfirmed leaks, but they provide positive signals about the progress of the negotiations.

He added: "If an agreement is reached, I expect Israel to abide by it during the first period, especially since the deal will be conditional on a strict timetable that ensures its implementation in stages, which maintains the balance of interests."

Regarding the possibility of returning to war, Abu Sitta explained that this scenario remains a possibility, but he ruled out that the next war would be as strong as the one we witnessed recently.

"We may see changes in the nature of military operations, such as limited incursions or intensive airstrikes. However, international pressure and internal crises in Israel, including possible resignations in the army and expected commissions of inquiry, may limit Netanyahu's ability to make escalatory decisions," he said.

Reconstruction benefits and livelihood needs

Abu Sitta pointed out that the Palestinian resistance may have benefited from the previous experience to develop its capabilities and rebuild its military strength, pointing to the possibility of using unexploded explosive materials from the occupation’s bombing. He added: This will increase the costs of any possible Israeli invasion, especially in light of the accumulated experience of the resistance.

Regarding the repercussions of the deal, Abu Sitta explained that the occupation will face major challenges in rearranging its priorities, especially in light of the losses it suffered during the last war.

He added: "Aid and reconstruction will be a matter of continued blackmail by Israel. Reconstruction may be allowed, but at a very slow pace to ensure that the pressure on the Palestinians is maintained."

Abu Sitta stressed that the post-war period will bring great benefits, especially with regard to reconstruction and addressing the massive living crises in the Gaza Strip.

He concluded his statement to "I": "Despite everything that happened, Gaza will remain steadfast, and will once again prove its ability to overcome hardships and return to life, no matter what the challenges are."

The decisive factor in reaching the deal is Trump

In turn, political analyst Adel Shadid, who specializes in Israeli affairs, said that the possibility of reaching a deal has become an understandable matter, especially in the first stages that Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to implement in a way that ensures achieving the maximum amount of recovery of living Israeli prisoners, for many considerations.

He added: "In my estimation, the official factor and the main variable in this matter is President Trump. Trump has the impression that neither Benjamin Netanyahu nor the current US administration (the Biden administration) are interested in finding a solution to the war, a ceasefire, or completing the deal. Rather, they both want to postpone the crisis to the Trump era."

Shadid stressed that Netanyahu is trying to blackmail Trump to obtain a large political price, whether in Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank or Gaza. In contrast, Biden is seeking to thwart Trump by placing many obstacles in his way through international and regional crises.

He explained that Biden believes that Gaza was one of the reasons for his political failure, and therefore he does not see any real interest in ending the crisis, despite his presence in the negotiations and his appearance as if he is interested in completing the deal.

"This American behavior has not changed for a year, as we hear the same rhetoric about interest in a ceasefire, but the reality shows continued support for Israel and holding Hamas responsible," Shadid said.

He stressed that the issue of Israel's commitment to the ceasefire is primarily linked to its interests and the interests of the regional and international players facing it.

Trump wants to devote himself to other issues

He said: "I think it is not in Netanyahu's interest to appear before President Trump in the first months as if he is trying to sabotage the efforts, because Trump wants to devote himself to other issues."

Shadid believed that the nature of the current terms might open the way for Israel to take certain steps that it considers somewhat compatible with the agreement, while the Palestinian side might see them as a violation of the agreement.

He pointed out that there is now a major problem, in my estimation, regarding the issue of the buffer zone that is being negotiated in Gaza.

He said: "The Israeli side is demanding a buffer zone of one kilometre depth along the border, while the Palestinians are demanding a depth of only 500 metres. It seems that the mediators are moving towards a compromise of 750 metres depth."

He stressed that the agreement stipulates that there should be no military activities in the buffer zone. However, the Israelis can exploit this point as a military zone, which could raise more problems.

As for the post-war scenarios, Shadid said, “There does not seem to be anything decisive or guaranteed. Everything is possible, including the possibility of returning to war.”

The decline of Hamas and the axis of resistance in the region

For his part, the Palestinian writer residing in Lebanon, Abdul Marouf, said that the news speaks of the approaching of reaching a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas through Qatari and Egyptian mediation, amidst confirmations from various reports of the existence of main provisions of the agreement, while pointing to obstacles that may hinder its implementation on the ground.

He pointed out that this development comes after a series of regional and international variables that contributed to pushing the parties towards this agreement.

Marouf believes that there are three main scenes that contributed to reaching this stage:

The first scene: the decline of the resistance axis in the region. He said: The strikes that were directed at the resistance axis in Lebanon, Syria and elsewhere, and the accompanying clear decline in the ability of this axis to withstand and survive.

Marouf added: "The second scene is the decline in the ability of Hamas and the Palestinian factions to resist Israeli attacks, with the Israeli army advancing on the ground and the escalation of massacres and destruction, in addition to the worsening of the humanitarian crisis in the Strip, represented by the rise in unemployment and prices.

He continued: The third scene is the internal Palestinian conflict, stressing that the continued division between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, and the failure of reconciliation efforts between the Fatah and Hamas movements, increased the complexity of the internal Palestinian scene.

Tel Aviv considers itself the victor

Marouf stressed that American pressure, along with the Israeli military advance inside the Strip and the great extent of the destruction, pushed Hamas to make significant concessions to its previous demands.

He added: The possible rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, supported by the Americans, was an additional incentive for Tel Aviv to accept the ceasefire, even though it did not achieve all of its strategic goals, most notably forcing Hamas to surrender completely and release Israeli prisoners.

At the end of his interview with "I", Marouf believes that Tel Aviv considers itself in a position of victory, as the expected agreement enhances its political and military gains. However, Marouf doubted the extent of Netanyahu's government's commitment to the agreement, stressing that Netanyahu's policies depend primarily on continuing wars and destructive campaigns to achieve Israel's strategic goals.

Accomplishing regional and international files before Trump takes office

In turn, Egyptian analyst Hani Al-Gamal considered that the "hourglass" is the most important indicator of Donald Trump's return to the White House, pointing to the acceleration of regional and international issues to be resolved before Trump assumes the presidency again.

Al-Jamal explained that Trump's sending of a special envoy, despite not officially assuming power, reflects his seriousness in achieving progress on sensitive issues, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

He pointed out that there are Israeli efforts led by Benjamin Netanyahu to reach agreements before January 20, as an electoral gift to Trump, which include steps such as removing some far-right ministers and conducting intensive negotiations with Qatari mediation.

He said: Netanyahu sent the head of the Shin Bet and Mossad to Qatar to accomplish this mission, which could be completed on January 20, as a gift that Netanyahu presented to Trump during his election program. This step contributes to reaching a humanitarian truce in several stages, which confirms that the Arab region falls within the framework of the economic file first and then the political.

He pointed out that these efforts aim to achieve a humanitarian truce consisting of several stages, which contributes to shifting attention towards the economic and political files in the region.

"Gaza's resources, such as gas and oil, make it a focus for the next US administration, as Trump seeks to pave the way for economic agreements in the region," Al-Jamal said.

Did Hamas accept conditions it had previously rejected?

Al-Jamal revealed that the leaks of the agreement included Hamas accepting some conditions that it had previously rejected, which surprised the Israeli side and raised questions about the future of the conflict.

He said: "One of the most notable things in the leaks is that Hamas accepted some of the terms that it was strict on, which came as a surprise to the Israeli side. Therefore, the message of the Israeli delegation carries a kind of embarrassment for the political system to which it belongs. Completing the deal is in line with regional and international desires to end the conflict that has claimed the lives of thousands of Palestinians over the past years."

He added: "Israel is seeking to establish new military bases in Gaza to ensure control, which may lead to competition between the Palestinian Authority and regional powers over the management of the Strip."

He pointed to the possibility of international or regional arrangements to manage humanitarian aid, with complications related to an imminent Israeli decision to prevent dealing with the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA).

Al-Jamal warned that the absence of clear alternatives to UNRWA could lead to a major crisis, especially with regard to the distribution of aid that was agreed to enter Gaza during the humanitarian truce.

Al-Jamal stressed that the success of these efforts depends on the will of international and regional parties, pointing to the potential role of American security companies and multinational forces in implementing these plans. Al-Jamal concluded by saying that the humanitarian truce may represent an opportunity for consensus, but it carries complex details that may delay its implementation.

Decisive steps in Doha to complete the exchange deal

Israeli affairs analyst Ismail Muslimani believes that the ongoing negotiations in the Qatari capital, Doha, are witnessing great momentum and a significant presence from representatives of the US administration, whether from the team of current President Joe Biden or envoys close to former President Donald Trump.

Muslimmani pointed out that this attendance reflects the seriousness of the international and regional parties in pushing towards reaching a prisoner exchange deal, especially with the technical teams finishing discussing the details of the three stages of the deal.

Muslimani explained that the deal has a political character par excellence, contrary to the desire of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who tried to give it a security character.

He added: The field developments and military challenges facing Israel are pushing towards accelerating the exchange process, especially in light of the losses incurred by the Israeli army on the ground, which makes the political investment in this deal necessary from the Israeli point of view.

Muslimani pointed out that the deal includes gradual stages, as it is expected to start with the release of 33 Israeli prisoners in exchange for about 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, with an emphasis on the return of the largest possible number of living prisoners. However, Israel expresses serious concerns that the majority of prisoners in the hands of the resistance may have died.

Analyst Muslimani stressed that the incoming president, Donald Trump, plays an important role in accelerating the completion of the deal before his expected inauguration on January 20, especially since he considers Gaza an important political file that can be exploited to achieve international gains. On the other hand, the Biden administration seeks to obstruct Trump’s efforts by placing political and security obstacles aimed at delaying the completion of the deal.

The deal has strategic dimensions that go beyond the borders of Gaza

Muslimani explained that the deal has strategic dimensions that go beyond the borders of the Gaza Strip, and includes regional files such as normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia, pressuring the Iranian nuclear project, and strengthening Israel's role as a regional power.

He said: "The deal is technically ready, but it needs final political approval from all parties. With the acceleration of negotiations in Doha, it is expected that the first phase of the deal will be announced within a few days, to constitute an important step towards calming the situation in the Gaza Strip and the region as a whole."

"Netanyahu began discussions with Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, who oppose the deal. However, Netanyahu succeeded in achieving two things: First, he managed to maintain the continuity of the government despite the concerns, and second, he convinced them not to dismantle the government," he added.

“The question that preoccupies Israelis now is: Is he afraid of Trump or is Netanyahu afraid of Trump more than Smotrich and Ben-Gvir? Here lies the real dilemma. In other words, will Smotrich and Ben-Gvir dismantle the government? It is clear that Netanyahu promised them a lot, referring to promises and gifts from Trump, including settlements, normalization with Saudi Arabia, and the Iranian file,” he said.

As for the possible scenarios, Muslimmani said: They are multiple, and things may return to what they were, which makes the issues of reconstruction and shelter in the Gaza Strip the main concern, in addition to the security and political arrangements for taking over the Strip.

He pointed out that there are ongoing understandings regarding the support committee that is preparing and arranging in the Gaza Strip. Things are heading towards openness, in the hope that this will be the beginning of getting out of the tunnel.

Muslimani confirmed that the talk now revolves around an international meeting expected to be held next June, with Saudi and French efforts, in order to establish a Palestinian state, with indications that the language of war may end this year in the regional area.