Dr. Ali Al-Jarbawi: The next stage may witness serious attempts to resolve the conflict amidst Palestinian weakness represented by “lack of political immunity”

Dr. Nader Saeed: Continued division threatens the Palestinian cause and a comprehensive mechanism must be put in place to heal the rift and restore confidence in national projects

Dr. Nader Saeed, Director of the Arab World Center for Research and Development (AWRAD), confirmed during a seminar titled: “The Palestinian Cause in the Eyes of Donald Trump,” presented by Dr. Ali Al-Jarbawi, Professor of Political Science, in the “Nadim Al-Zaro” Hall at the Ramallah Recreational Complex, the day before yesterday, that daily Palestinian efforts focus on documenting humanitarian violations and identifying basic needs in the areas of health, education, and food, in addition to monitoring the performance of international humanitarian institutions concerned with Gaza, noting that “these efforts reveal a shift in priorities from major national issues to managing daily crises.”

Saeed explained that the division among Palestinian leaderships, whether within the Fatah movement or between Fatah and Hamas, has led to a growing gap between the political elite and the public. This division, according to recent polls, has contributed to the decline in Palestinian affiliation with factions, with more than 50% feeling no political connection.

Polls showed a sharp decline in support for Palestinian leadership, with only 2% of West Bank residents seeing President Abbas’s performance as appropriate, while Hamas’s popularity in Gaza declined to 5%, stressing that “national projects, whether resistance or negotiations, are losing momentum in the absence of a unified vision and weak leadership.”

Saeed concluded by stressing the need to establish a comprehensive mechanism to heal the national rift and restore confidence in national projects, warning that the continuation of the division threatens the entire Palestinian cause.

Challenges of the next stage and opportunities for Palestinian national work

In his speech, Dr. Ali Al-Jarbawi discussed the major political transformations facing the Palestinian cause in light of international and regional changes, noting that the next stage may be pivotal, and explaining that it may witness serious attempts to resolve the conflict, amidst Palestinian weakness represented by “a lack of political immunity.”

The professor of political science stressed that there are major challenges that require clear strategies, away from continuing the state of stagnation that controls the Palestinian political system.

The international and regional situation and the impact of Trump's return

Al-Jarbawi explained that the return of former US President Donald Trump poses a major challenge, especially with his focus on major issues such as competition with China, strengthening the Atlantic alliance, and the US domestic situation, noting that the Middle East is not a central priority for Trump, but rather he seeks stability in the region in a way that serves US and Israeli interests.

As for Palestine, Jarbawi believed that Trump would work to reformulate the Deal of the Century as the maximum that the Palestinians could obtain, with a focus on a “state in Gaza” that represents a security solution for Israel rather than a comprehensive political solution.

"Any settlement will depend on regional normalization agreements between Israel and Arab countries," he added.

The decline of the Arab role in the region

Al-Jarbawi stressed that the active roles in the region have become non-Arab, pointing to the dominance of Iran, Turkey and Israel as the main active parties, saying, “The Arab regimes consider the Palestinian issue a burden that they seek to get rid of through minimal settlements that preserve their own interests, without considering it a central issue for the Arab nation.”

The former Palestinian Minister of Planning stressed that Saudi Arabia, as the current pivotal Arab state, is leading the trend towards a minimal settlement, which means that the Palestinian cause will not receive sufficient support to bring about a real change in the regional balance of power.

The internal Palestinian situation...weak political immunity

Al-Jarbawi moved on to talk about the internal Palestinian situation, stressing that the Palestinian political system has been suffering from "calcification" for decades, which has led to a state of political division and geographical polarization between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. He explained that this division has led to the stagnation of political life, as Palestinian political thinking has become captive to assumptions that are not open to discussion or accountability.

He pointed out that the current political system is unable to provide effective responses to current challenges, with an accelerating collapse in the education, economic, and social values systems, considering that the continuation of this situation weakens the Palestinians' ability to confront Israeli and international pressures.

Israel and its regional rise

Al-Jarbawi pointed out that Israel is witnessing a phase of regional ascendancy despite the challenges it faced in the last war, and said, "Israel has been able to achieve strategic goals in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, while seeking to strengthen its position through projects such as normalization and the selective annexation of parts of the West Bank.

He added that Israeli society itself is witnessing a shift towards the extreme right, which makes any political settlement based on the two-state principle out of reach, stressing that "Israel today is governed by a vision based on the Judea and Samaria project, where the political settlement is no longer a popular or governmental option."

Challenges facing the Palestinian national project

Al-Jarbawi stressed that the Palestinian national project, whether through negotiations or resistance, is facing a major setback, explaining that the two paths have become rigid means, instead of being part of a comprehensive national vision.

He pointed out that the most prominent challenge is represented by Israel's attempts to perpetuate the separation of the West Bank from Gaza and move to the stage of "selective annexation", which leads to dividing the West Bank into enclaves linked to Gaza, within a vision that does not achieve Palestinian sovereignty. He considered that the continuation of the Palestinian division facilitates Israel's implementation of these plans.

A vision for the future... between the options of full annexation and the two-state solution

Al-Jarbawi raised questions about the feasibility of adhering to the two-state solution in light of the current facts, pointing out that this solution, as it is being proposed now, aims to divide the West Bank, not establish an independent Palestinian state, calling for opening a discussion about alternative options, such as demanding the complete annexation of the West Bank to Israel, which imposes a different legal and political confrontation that may change the equation.

He stressed that the continuation of the political stagnation makes the Palestinians prisoners of Israeli options that impose a new reality on them, calling for the restructuring of the Palestinian political system to be able to confront the challenges, and to activate the internal debate on the available options.

Rebuilding Palestinian Immunity

Al-Jarbawi concluded his speech by emphasizing the importance of building Palestinian political immunity by activating the political system, ending the division, and developing a comprehensive national vision that is consistent with international and regional transformations.

He stressed that "the next stage requires courage in facing reality and taking difficult decisions to ensure the preservation of Palestinian national rights in the face of the liquidation project led by Israel with international and regional support."