Dr. Amr Hussein: Negotiation rounds in Doha and Cairo are ongoing, but the success of the deal depends on pressuring Netanyahu

Majed Hadeeb: Netanyahu may accept a ceasefire if he is convinced by the security guarantees provided by Egypt within the framework of future arrangements for Gaza

Daoud Kuttab: Overcoming obstacles to mediation requires pressure from within Israel or from the United States of America

Sari Samour: The success of Egyptian mediation depends on Washington’s serious desire and readiness to issue an order to stop the war

Dr. Aql Salah: Hamas and Fatah blocked Netanyahu’s attempts to use the pretext of who rules Gaza by agreeing on a community administrative committee

Nihad Abu Ghosh: The most likely scenario is to achieve a partial deal, but that depends on pressuring Netanyahu and arranging the internal Palestinian situation

Egypt is once again leading the intensive efforts to try to move the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza and conclude a swap deal, amidst great complications, in the face of the possibility of its success in its tasks, and the world is awaiting the fruits of those efforts.

In separate interviews with “I,” writers, political analysts and specialists believe that despite the momentum witnessed by the Egyptian mediation, the intransigent Israeli positions, especially from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, constitute a major obstacle to achieving any tangible progress. Despite this, serious American pressure remains the main pillar to force Israel to conclude the deal.

The writers, analysts and specialists explain that the Egyptian mediation faces multiple challenges, the most prominent of which is Israel’s refusal to pay the minimum price, which includes ending the war, withdrawing from Gaza, and exchanging prisoners between the two parties. However, despite this, the regional and international circumstances seem ripe for concluding a truce deal.

Intensive efforts to move the stalled negotiations on Gaza

The writer, political analyst, and specialist in international and strategic relations, Dr. Amr Hussein, confirms that the Egyptian state, led by President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, is making strenuous efforts to move the stalled negotiations regarding Gaza, which have lasted for more than eight months.

Hussein explains that the main obstacle facing these negotiations was the positions of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which hindered any tangible progress.

Hussein believes that the momentum witnessed in the negotiations thanks to the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, in which the parties committed to initial understandings, provided a glimmer of hope for moving the Palestinian file forward.

He points out that Egypt, as the party most concerned with the Palestinian issue, is working tirelessly to stop the war on Gaza, bring humanitarian aid into the Strip, and reach an understanding on joint administration between the Fatah and Hamas movements after the withdrawal of the Israeli occupation army.

Hussein explains that there are challenges facing Egyptian mediation, the most important of which is Netanyahu's insistence on continuing the war, as he refuses to withdraw from Gaza and stipulates a prisoner exchange without stopping military operations, which makes the negotiations very complicated.

Hussein points to another obstacle facing Egyptian mediation, which is the lack of consensus between the Fatah and Hamas movements on managing the Strip after the war. However, Egypt was able to bring viewpoints closer together, and proposed forming a community committee to manage Gaza in the post-war phase.

Another obstacle facing Egyptian mediation, according to Hussein, is the Israeli military expansion along a 5-kilometer-long axis in the Netzarim axis, in addition to the intensive bulldozing operations in Jabalia, which he considers part of an Israeli plan called the “generals’ plan” or “bubbles,” which aims to fragment the Gaza Strip, in addition to Israel’s refusal to withdraw from the Philadelphi axis and its installation of watchtowers and cameras equipped with remote automatic weapons.

Hussein explains that Egypt proposed, according to reports published by the Israeli newspaper Maariv, a temporary truce lasting between 45 and 60 days, including a gradual prisoner exchange and a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Strip, followed by the community committee taking over the administration of Gaza.

On the other hand, Hussein points out that the American position has changed after the presidential elections, as President-elect Donald Trump seeks to release the Israeli detainees before taking office on January 20.

He explains that the US administration is pressing to end the war in Gaza in order to focus on the worsening situation in Syria, making the settlement in Gaza part of its broader strategy in the region.

Hussein points out that the negotiation rounds in Doha and Cairo are continuing, but the success of the deal depends on the parties’ ability to pressure Netanyahu, who sees the continuation of the war as a means of escaping domestic political accountability.

Deal could falter if Israeli detainees are found to have been liquidated

Writer and political analyst Majed Hadeeb explains that since October 7, Egypt has been striving to achieve a ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian resistance, as part of efforts aimed at achieving justice for the Palestinian cause and establishing peace in the region based on international legitimacy resolutions.

Hadib asserts that Egypt is an acceptable party to the regional and international parties concerned with the Palestinian issue, especially Saudi Arabia, whose role has recently emerged through coordination with Egypt and Qatar to reorganize the Palestinian house, including the stage following the war. Despite the strenuous efforts to conclude a ceasefire deal, which has become imminent, an urgent and pressing question comes to mind: Will this deal hold?

According to Hadeeb, the fate of the deal may falter if it turns out that the Israeli prisoners held by the Palestinian resistance have been liquidated, and this possibility may push Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to back down from continuing to implement the agreement in order to finally eliminate what remains of Hamas’ influence in the Gaza Strip.

On the other hand, Hadeeb believes that there are several factors that push towards the success of the deal, most notably the expected shift in the US administration from Joe Biden to Donald Trump, as each of them has a different view of the Palestinian issue, especially with regard to the details related to final status solutions.

Among these factors, according to Hadib, is Türkiye’s entry into the mediation line, as the Turkish president plays a personal role in coordinating with Qatar, Egypt, and Hamas to revive the prisoner exchange deal.

Netanyahu, according to Hadeeb, believes that Israel has achieved all its military and political goals in Gaza, by destroying the economic and administrative infrastructure of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, and pushing them towards voluntary migration after forced migration failed for many reasons, including not facilitating this for the people of Gaza, especially from Egypt, which closed the crossing and worked to tighten exit procedures. Netanyahu is also facing increasing internal pressure from Israeli public opinion, which has shifted from supporting the continuation of the war to demanding its cessation, especially with the failure to fulfill his promises to release the Israeli detainees without negotiating with Hamas.

Hadeeb points out that Netanyahu may accept and abide by the ceasefire, especially if he is convinced by the security guarantees Egypt has provided him as part of its vision for future arrangements for the Gaza Strip. Among these arrangements is the Palestinian Authority taking over the administration of the Strip as part of efforts to reunify the Palestinian factions under the umbrella of the PLO, in line with the “one package” agreement proposed by Egypt through what is known as the Egyptian paper in 2019.

On the Palestinian side, it is in no one’s interest to put obstacles in the way of achieving a ceasefire, especially Hamas. Hadeeb explains that Hamas seems more open to a ceasefire, especially after the weakness of the “unity of the arenas” that aimed to support Gaza from other fronts such as Lebanon became clear. Likewise, the suffering of the people of Gaza in light of the difficult humanitarian conditions they are living in has pushed the general mood towards accepting any truce that might alleviate their suffering, and might also work to stop the signs of a popular explosion whose features have begun to appear on the horizon after it became clear to the Gazan citizen that Hamas’s current conditions for a ceasefire focus on humanitarian issues more than political ones.

He points out that the American and Egyptian guarantees for the return of the displaced to northern Gaza represent an encouraging factor for Hamas to accept the agreement, even if the outlines of the agreement regarding the Philadelphi Corridor are not clear, as attention is also directed to the Philadelphi Corridor on the Egyptian-Palestinian border, due to the lack of clarity in the details of the Israeli withdrawal from it. However, Israel’s recent steps, such as installing surveillance cameras on the border and directing automatic weapons from high towers, indicate that it does not intend to remain in this corridor for long, but rather seeks transitional arrangements in line with the post-war vision.

The scene is moving towards strengthening Palestinian unity

Hadib touches on another factor in the conclusion of the agreement and its continued implementation, especially on the diplomatic level, where Saudi Arabia emerges as a major player by imposing clear conditions for normalization with Israel, the most important of which is the establishment of a Palestinian state according to the Arab Peace Initiative. Also, with the growing Egyptian-Saudi-Qatari coordination, it seems that the scene is moving towards strengthening Palestinian unity according to a strategy that returns the PLO to the forefront of the negotiating scene.

Hadib confirms that the ceasefire deal is close to being implemented, after regional and international conditions have matured. Egypt and Russia have managed to bring Palestinian viewpoints closer together, including Hamas’s authorization of the Palestinian Authority to manage Gaza, as part of a broader agreement that includes resuming negotiations with Israel to establish a Palestinian state based on the two-state solution.

He stresses that the success of the deal depends on several factors, including: ensuring the continuation of regional and international coordination, ensuring the stability of understandings between the Palestinian factions, and with the approach of the new US administration, the concerned parties seem more keen to exploit the opportunity to achieve a sustainable calm that paves the way for long-term political solutions.

The problem is Israel's unwillingness to reach a solution.

Writer and political analyst Daoud Kuttab confirms that mediation in the issue of exchange between Israel and the Palestinian resistance does not face difficulties from the mediating parties such as Egypt or Hamas, but rather the problem lies in the Israeli side’s unwillingness to reach a solution.

The writers explain that the most prominent obstacles to completing the deal are Israel's refusal to pay the minimum price, which includes ending the war, withdrawing from Gaza, and exchanging prisoners between the two parties.

Writers point out that overcoming these obstacles to mediation regarding concluding the deal requires pressure on Israel from within Israel, or from the United States of America.

The writers explain that mediation and its positive push will not be achieved unless there is strong pressure on the Israeli side to show a desire for a solution.

Writers stress that returning to talk about the deal in parallel with Turkish mediation efforts and the possibility of Qatar returning to participate in the process highlights the importance of the role played by the mediating parties in pushing the negotiation process forward.

He points out that the power of mediation does not come only from the ability of the mediator, whether Egypt, Qatar or Türkiye, but from the desire of the parties to reach a solution.

The writers explain that the situation may be easier with Turkey because it has diplomatic relations with Israel and is a member of NATO, which gives it greater influence in the file, but the greatest difficulty lies in the real Israeli desire for a solution.

Writers stress that negotiations will not progress significantly unless there is a real will on the Israeli side to accept the basic Palestinian demands.

Writers confirm that despite various mediation attempts, the Israeli position remains the main obstacle, which requires greater efforts from the international community, especially the United States, to pressure Israel to make the necessary concessions.

The main obstacle is not in the details.

Writer and political analyst Sari Samour believes that the Egyptian mediation to stop the war in the Gaza Strip, like the efforts of other parties, does not move without clear directives from the American administration, pointing out that Egypt, despite its prominent role, has proven its inability to compel Israel to implement what is agreed upon in the negotiations.

Samour gave the example of the prisoner exchange deal known as the “Shalit deal,” which was carried out under full Egyptian sponsorship in 2011. However, Israel re-arrested dozens of those released ten years ago, without any real Egyptian intervention to release them, perhaps because Egypt was unable to force Israel.

Samour explains that the success of the Egyptian mediation depends on the existence of a serious American desire to stop the fighting and conclude an agreement that satisfies all parties, considering that the main obstacle is not in the details or the differences between the parties, but in the extent of Washington’s readiness to issue an order for a ceasefire.

Samour explains the return of talk about Egyptian mediation and others regarding the possibility of concluding a deal in the Gaza Strip as a result of several intertwined factors, including: the unprecedented rise in the rates of killing and destruction in Gaza, which created a moral crisis for Israel, which began to suffer from the repercussions of the bloody images and scenes on Arab, Islamic and international public opinion.

Also, according to Samour, the fear of the killing of Israeli detainees held by Hamas represents an additional challenge that pushes towards accelerating the negotiations, and Israel is facing great losses due to the continuation of military operations in Gaza, which makes it more open to mediation options.

Samour touched on the impact of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and what is happening in Syria, on the general scene, as international parties, led by the United States, seek to contain the situation in the region, which is an important matter in pushing towards concluding the deal in the Gaza Strip.

Samour highlighted the US administration's political calculations, as President Joe Biden seeks to end his term with an achievement in the Middle East, while Donald Trump is trying to prove his ability to impose his political vision as he approaches taking over the reins of power in the White House.

Despite the efforts made, Samour wonders whether these moves are actually aimed at stopping the genocide in Gaza, or whether they are merely attempts to absorb the growing anger of the families of the Israeli detainees and their supporters, and the anger towards the Israeli massacres in the Gaza Strip and their impact on the Arab, Islamic and international street.

Samour stresses that the success of any agreement depends on a real American will, not just advice or suggestions, to achieve a ceasefire by meeting the Palestinians’ conditions, and ensuring a decent life for the Palestinians in Gaza through: the withdrawal of the Israeli occupation, the entry of humanitarian aid, the implementation of an honorable exchange deal, and the reconstruction of the Strip.

Samour stresses that achieving these goals is not impossible, but it requires direct and tangible American pressure.

Netanyahu seeks a deal 'tailored to his needs'

The writer and political researcher Dr. Aql Salah explains that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still procrastinating and evading the conclusion of the prisoner exchange deal proposed by the Palestinian resistance, headed by the Hamas movement, stressing that Netanyahu has not yet reached the stage of accepting the Palestinian conditions that are appropriate for the sacrifices of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip, as Netanyahu seeks a deal "to his size", that is, one that serves his political interests and gives him the opportunity to maintain his government coalition, while he is trying to avoid the political and military losses that may result from this deal.

Salah believes that Netanyahu is facing internal and external pressures that may force him to eventually make concessions to conclude the deal, but overcoming these obstacles is still not possible without intense pressure.

Salah points out that the most important of these obstacles are the hardline positions of the parties in the government coalition, especially the Israeli Ministers of National Security and Finance, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Without their approval of the deal, the coalition may collapse, making Netanyahu hesitant to take any step that might threaten the stability of his government.

Another obstacle, according to Salah, is the dilemma of the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip as part of any agreement to stop the war. This withdrawal, which may take place gradually with international guarantees as proposed by the resistance, is considered in Israel’s view a victory for the resistance and a defeat for Netanyahu.

Salah points out that implementing the withdrawal will also reveal internal differences in Israel and bring up again the corruption and failure files that haunt Netanyahu, which will further complicate his position.

Among other challenges facing the deal, Dr. Aql Salah points to Netanyahu’s refusal to release Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences, including prominent leaders, and he does not want to repeat the experience of releasing Yahya Sinwar, who was released as part of the “Wafa al-Ahrar” deal in 2011.

According to Salah, Netanyahu is seeking to pressure the resistance to reduce its demands regarding the release of Palestinian prisoners, while maintaining a high ceiling of Israeli demands. Among the things Netanyahu may pressure is the possibility of releasing prisoners with high sentences (“life sentences”) and leaders, and the place of releasing prisoners (“deporting them outside the homeland”).

Regarding who will rule Gaza after the war ends, Salah points out that Netanyahu entered the Gaza Strip with the aim of eliminating the resistance, specifically Hamas, but the Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Fatah, blocked his attempts by agreeing on a temporary administration of the Strip through a community administrative committee.

Salah believes that the recent truce that Israel concluded with Hezbollah in Lebanon has reopened the door to the possibility of concluding a similar deal in Gaza, as the international community and the Israelis themselves have asked the question: If Israel is able to agree to a truce in Lebanon, why not implement it in Gaza?

Salah points out that the incoming Trump administration may see the deal as a step that serves its interests, especially if it includes the release of hostages who hold American citizenship, noting that the Qassam Brigades recently published a video of the detainee Idan Alexander, in which he appeals to Trump and the Israeli community to move to conclude a deal that guarantees his release.

According to Salah, Trump's arrival at the White House next January may push Israel to strike a deal that is in line with its geopolitical interests, such as promoting normalization with Saudi Arabia, annexing the West Bank, and ending the Iranian nuclear file.

Salah points out that Israel may exploit this deal to improve its international image, which has become associated with criminality, especially after the increasing international pressure to prosecute the Israeli political and military leadership for the crimes committed in Gaza.

Salah believes that the next stage will witness an escalation in pressure on Netanyahu, whether from within Israel or from the next US administration, which may force him to make unprecedented concessions.

Salah warns that Netanyahu will try to procrastinate as much as possible, as he did with the Biden administration, which put forward terms that Hamas agreed to, but Netanyahu rejected.

Salah stresses that the prisoner exchange deal, if concluded, will ultimately be the result of intense pressure on the Israeli government, and will constitute a real test of Netanyahu’s flexibility in facing his internal and external crises, and the extent of his ability to maintain the balance of his government without compromising his political ambitions.

Factors that create conditions for completing the exchange deal

Writer, political analyst and specialist in Israeli affairs, Nihad Abu Ghosh, believes that there are several factors that create the conditions for completing a prisoner exchange deal between Israel and Hamas, which enhances the chances of success of Egyptian mediation this time.

Abu Ghosh explains that these factors include statements by US President-elect Donald Trump about his desire to release Israeli detainees before he takes office next month, which puts great political pressure on the Israeli government to expedite the completion of the deal.

Abu Ghosh points out that the ceasefire in Lebanon may be applied to Gaza, which puts Israel before the option of stopping the escalation. The Israeli war on the Gaza Strip has also reached a high level of destruction and killing, which makes Israel face increasing international criticism, especially with the International Criminal Court issuing arrest warrants for the occupation government’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Minister of War Yoav Galant, and expanding the circle of those accused of war crimes.

Abu Ghosh points out that the agreement between the Fatah and Hamas movements to form an administrative committee to manage Gaza constitutes an additional pressure card that could support the achievement of the deal.

However, Abu Ghosh confirms that the Israeli government is facing counter-pressures from the extreme right, which is pushing for the continuation of the war or the occupation of the Strip. Netanyahu also fears that stopping the war will lead to him being held politically or even judicially accountable, which is pushing him to procrastinate in accepting the deal.

Abu Ghosh explains that the closest scenario is to achieve a partial deal in the first stage, but that depends on internal and international pressure on Netanyahu, in addition to arranging the internal Palestinian situation.