The Hebrew newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth revealed details of the new proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza, which it said Egypt had recently formulated, but it also addressed the factors that might prevent reaching this agreement.

According to the newspaper, the new proposal is based on a plan for a ceasefire between Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in the Gaza Strip for a period of 60 days, during which the occupation army will partially withdraw from the Strip, and during which negotiations will take place to end the war between the two parties and on Hamas’s demand for a complete Israeli withdrawal, with the agreement to be completed by the time US President-elect Donald Trump takes office next year.

Regarding the details of this agreement, the writer Smadar Perry quoted an unnamed official Egyptian source as saying that the Israeli prisoners will not be returned until a week after the agreement goes into effect, and that Palestinian prisoners will be released in exchange for them, without discussing specific numbers or criteria.

On the other hand, the former Israeli negotiator, Avi Kalo, reviewed in another article the motives of the various parties to reach an agreement, noting that there are real obstacles to moving forward in this regard.

Details of the expected agreement

In her article in the newspaper, the writer quoted the Egyptian official as saying, “The Rafah crossing will be transferred to the Palestinian Authority’s administration and supervision,” noting that Hamas has not yet announced a change in its position on the condition of the withdrawal of the occupation forces from the Gaza Strip and the Philadelphi Corridor for signing the agreement.

But she pointed out what the Egyptian official said, "The plan will pave the way for a gradual cessation of fighting in Gaza with the Israeli side withdrawing from the Rafah crossing."

In detail, Perry quoted the Egyptian official as saying, "About a week after the temporary ceasefire goes into effect, the process of returning the remaining Israeli prisoners will begin. At the same time, hundreds of Palestinian prisoners will also be released from Israeli prisons, according to the keys agreed upon between the two sides. During the 60-day ceasefire, Israel will maintain a military presence in Gaza. The proposal also addresses the possibility of Palestinian refugees returning to the northern Gaza Strip, as Hamas demands."

As for the Rafah crossing, according to the plan, it is expected to be managed and supervised by the Palestinian Authority. In previous contacts, Israel raised the possibility of maintaining some surveillance capabilities through cameras at the Rafah crossing. According to the senior Egyptian source, “a joint management committee will be formed from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, which will include 10-15 members, ‘technocrats, independent Palestinian politicians.’ The committee will be supervised by American representatives.”

The Egyptian source stressed that "the first 60 days will be a test for both sides - Israel and Hamas - and that if the plan holds, it will be the end of the conflict between the two sides."

According to the newspaper, the Egyptian source indicated that the intention of the new move is to complete this step before Trump enters the White House. However, he confirmed that both President Joe Biden and Trump have received reports about the new plan. Hamas has not yet responded positively to the proposal, nor has it announced a change in its positions.

"As far as we know, Hamas still insists on ending the war and a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip," he added.

The writer pointed out that Qatar also returned to center stage, after Trump's new envoy, Steve Witkoff, met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in an attempt to reach a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and a prisoner deal before the inauguration.

She said Hamas negotiators are expected to return to Doha and hold another round of talks soon.

While the writer ignored the position of the Israeli government, which had previously prevented reaching a ceasefire agreement, she was careful to remind that “there is cautious optimism in Israel, because Hamas is still insisting on its demands for an end to the fighting, the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the entire Gaza Strip, and the promise to rebuild the Gaza Strip and allow in massive aid.”

"If Hamas agrees to a symbolic expulsion of its leaders from the Gaza Strip, it may be possible to reach an agreement that includes a cessation of the war, because Netanyahu cannot allow a photo opportunity of Hamas's return to power," a senior Israeli official said earlier this week.

Obstacles

In this context, Kalu discussed in his article for the same newspaper the important factor in accelerating the reaching of an agreement, which is the pressure of the elected US president, which he called the (X) factor, indicating that this agreement achieves the interests of all parties concerned with it.

The former lawyer noted that the warring parties in Gaza now have a shared interest in reaching a partial humanitarian agreement, including a limited ceasefire lasting a few weeks without committing to ending the war. According to the Egyptian proposal, the agreement is a “phased deal” similar to a previous agreement implemented last year, including:

Gradual release of prisoners over the course of weeks.

Temporary ceasefire.

Partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from areas of importance in the Gaza Strip, laying the basis for a permanent ceasefire in the future.

Kalo stressed that the success of the agreement depends on the “political will of both parties,” noting that Hamas, which lacks strong support from Hezbollah and Iran, believes that this temporary calm will enable it to reorganize its ranks inside Palestine. Meanwhile, Israel faces enormous internal pressure to return the prisoners, in addition to the desire to close the Gaza file and devote itself to confronting Netanyahu’s arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court before Trump enters the White House.

However, Kalo noted that “it is still too early to cut the ribbon, with the two sides sticking to two points, one of which concerns the mechanism for ending the deal. While Israel seeks to maintain some ambiguity on the issue of ending the war, Hamas insists on a clear agreement that includes the release of prisoners and ends with a permanent ceasefire.”

Another point of contention is “the quantity and quality of the security prisoners to be released in the deal, which is on the doorstep of the hardline Israeli government, in a way that requires political maneuvering that goes beyond the opposition of some extremist government ministers (Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich) to the deal.”