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ARAB AND WORLD

Thu 28 Nov 2024 6:02 pm - Jerusalem Time

Trump got rid of the burden of the Lebanon war, but the possibility of the agreement cracking remains

Experts believe that the Biden administration has removed a major geopolitical headache from President-elect Donald Trump’s to-do list in securing a ceasefire in Lebanon. But the incoming Trump administration will not be able to completely ignore the tensions between Hezbollah and Israel as they pursue larger goals in the Middle East.

Aaron David Miller, a veteran Middle East peace negotiator who has worked with both Democratic and Republican administrations, told NatSec Daily that ceasefire violations are likely to occur and it will be up to all parties involved — Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel and Iran — to “reduce this confrontation and conflict to a situation where you have periodic violations.”

“It will be a test of whether each side believes that preserving this deal is more in their interest or theirs than letting it fundamentally collapse,” said Miller, who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Blaise Misztal, vice president for policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, told the same site that it is unclear how the agreement’s enforcement mechanisms will be used to respond to alleged violations of the ceasefire. The United States now chairs the “trilateral mechanism” designed to sort out complaints about adherence to the ceasefire, but no information has been provided on how real-time monitoring will take place on the ground.

Many are wondering how we will determine if there is a ceasefire violation? How will we establish oversight, detection and integration so that we can quickly get this information to the Lebanese Armed Forces.

Other questions remain – will the Lebanese army be able to keep Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon and prevent the Iranian-backed group from rearming? Will there be problems with the 60-day implementation window, with the IDF withdrawing and the Lebanese army deploying in its place? Can the UN Interim Force in Lebanon be trusted as a stable presence, given its mixed record in stopping violence?

However, the agreement appears to be holding for now. The fighting stopped at 4 a.m. Lebanon time in accordance with the agreement and Lebanon and Israel appear to be complying with its terms.

There is little risk that Trump will upend the agreement. Trump’s incoming national security adviser, Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), praised the ceasefire, saying he was “pleased to see concrete steps toward de-escalation in the Middle East.”

“Trump has been very clear that his support for Israel and his commitment to peace in the Middle East is unwavering,” a transition official for the incoming Trump administration, who was granted anonymity to speak freely, told NatSec Daily. The official claimed that Trump’s victory brings adversaries like Hezbollah back to the negotiating table.

Moreover, a senior administration official told reporters on Tuesday that Trump's "senior national security team" had been briefed on the details of the deal and that the Trump and Biden camps were in agreement.

“They agreed that this is good for Israel, as Prime Minister Netanyahu just said, it is good for Lebanon, as their government said, and it is good for the national security of the United States,” the official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity, said. “And most importantly, doing this now rather than later will save countless lives on both sides.”

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Trump got rid of the burden of the Lebanon war, but the possibility of the agreement cracking remains

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