The American magazine "Foreign Policy" expressed its belief that the "calculated" attack launched by Israel at dawn on Saturday on several Iranian military facilities may provide an opportunity to reduce the escalation between the two countries in the short term.

It considered that Tehran's response, which it described as calm so far, is an indication that it will not respond to the attack in kind. It quoted Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the British "Chatham House" Institute, as saying that the exchange of attacks between the two countries is "a dangerous escalation, as both Israel and Iran have crossed dangerous red lines."

She added that the Israeli response to previous Iranian attacks was "relatively calculated"; as it avoided striking nuclear facilities, expressing its belief that Iran has no interest or ability to get involved in a wider regional war.

A prelude to more attacks

But Foreign Policy correspondent Rishi Iyengar believes that all the statements issued, whether by American, Western, or other officials, may not prevent further hostilities between the two sides, and some experts have warned that Saturday’s attack may be a prelude to more attacks by Israel even if Iran chooses not to respond.

Azrael Bermant, a senior researcher at the Institute of International Relations in Prague who focuses on the Middle East, said that Israel’s attack on a number of air defense systems “indicates that it may be preparing for a subsequent attack.”

However, he added that the administration of US President Joe Biden “will do everything in its power to prevent further Israeli strikes.”

In his news analysis, Iyengar expects that the US presidential elections on November 5 will also have major repercussions on Israeli decision-making, whether with regard to launching a strike this week or the possibility of launching a future attack on Iran.

Narrow window of opportunity for Israel

According to Sanam Vakil, Israel has a “very narrow window of opportunity” to act, “as there were many expectations that Israel would carry out this strike before November 5, in light of the belief that the next US president might try to reduce or restrict Israeli room for maneuver.”

For Israel, Iyengar says, much depends on who wins the presidential race between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris.

In his comment on this, researcher Bermant says that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “dream” is that Donald Trump becomes president, and then Tel Aviv will feel more confident in its ability to carry out a more ambitious attack with Trump in the White House, he believes.

Harris Administration

The question remains open, as the analysis writer says, as to whether a Harris administration, if it wins, will be willing to go further than the Biden administration in trying to curb Israel’s actions in Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon.

Harris has long affirmed Israel’s right to defend itself and praised Washington’s “steadfast” support for Tel Aviv, but she has also been more critical of its actions than Biden has been at times, at least verbally, according to the American magazine.

Harris did not appear “hesitant” when asked by the host of the “60 Minutes” program on the American network “CBC News” last month, as she described Iran as the “greatest adversary” of the United States.

Bermant expected that Israel would carry out another attack, and that Iran would refrain from responding, but he believes that the region will witness further escalation at a later time, and said: The question is: When will that happen?

Source: Foreign Policy+ Al Jazeera