Experts believe that while the collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria came quickly and shockingly, rebuilding the country’s shattered economy will be painfully slow. After nearly 14 years of brutal civil war, blockades, sanctions and political gridlock, most of Syria’s oil and gas wells, roads, electricity grids, farmland and infrastructure lie in ruins.

Ninety percent of the population lives in poverty, the U.N. envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, said last week. The Syrian pound has plummeted in value, and the central bank’s foreign currency reserves — needed to buy essentials like food, fuel and spare parts — have been nearly exhausted.

Before the war, oil accounted for two-thirds of Syria’s exports, agriculture accounted for nearly a quarter of economic activity, the country exported medicine to 95 countries, and Syria had no debt. Now, Syria’s entire economic system is out of order, due to the war that has been going on in Syria since 2011, economic sanctions, and the blockade, according to experts, who believe that Abu Mohammed al-Julani, now known as Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham who seized power in Syria, faces the daunting task of unifying rebel factions, reshaping the government, re-establishing the rule of law, providing security, and managing basic services such as water distribution and other scarce resources.

There is broad agreement among experts that the most important step in rebuilding Syria’s economy can only be taken by the United States: lifting layers of punitive sanctions that have effectively cut Syria off from international trade and investment. The U.S. restrictions on financial flows in 2019 were intended to punish the Assad regime. Now, the United States is cutting Syria off from the funds it desperately needs for reconstruction and economic development. Syrians and aid organizations cannot send aid; refugees cannot transfer money from Western bank accounts to invest in a home or business; and the International Monetary Fund and World Bank cannot provide assistance.

Lifting sanctions, even in the form of “temporary waivers,” is a priority, experts say. Ending all financial restrictions would also mean removing the U.S. and U.N. terrorist designations of al-Jolani and his organization, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Washington and its allies are sure to offer that possibility as a bargaining chip, and Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf told al-Jolani in a meeting with him on Friday that the United States had withdrawn its $10 million reward for his capture for his past ties to al-Qaeda.

But the United States, the European Union and Britain are taking their time in easing these sanctions, contingent on any move being guaranteed by the new leaders in Damascus.

Imposing US and international sanctions on Syria was one of the most important tools used by Western powers to undermine the Syrian state and overthrow the regime of Bashar al-Assad. These sanctions varied between banning exports and imports, freezing assets, banning travel, and imposing strict financial restrictions, with the aim of besieging the regime and stopping serious violations of human rights.

While calls are increasing to ease economic restrictions on the country, which is witnessing difficult humanitarian conditions, especially after the overthrow of the Assad regime, Washington and its Western allies are linking any step in this direction to “conditions” that include ensuring a peaceful political transition, protecting minorities, and preventing the return of ISIS, especially since the new change is led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, nicknamed al-Julani, who is the leader of “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham,” which is classified on the terrorist lists.

Washington has other economic cards to play, according to Joshua Landis, associate director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, especially since the center of oil production and the remaining operating wells are in northeastern Syria, territory controlled by a Kurdish-led militia backed by the United States.

Oil used to provide about half of the country’s revenue, Landis said in a lecture at his university. These fields belong to the government in Damascus and must be returned to its control, he added. Reviving oil and gas production will not be easy. Before the war, Syria produced 383,000 barrels a day. Now it produces less than 90,000, according to the World Bank. Facilities and pipelines, including those that carried energy to Iraq, Jordan and Egypt, have been destroyed or damaged. The country used to import more oil than it exported.

Security is essential not only for oil and gas production, but also for attracting many of the eight million refugees who have fled the war. Attracting those with the education, skills and resources to return is crucial to Syria’s revival, says Landis. “Syrians with money are key, but many of them won’t come back if there’s no electricity or rule of law,” he says.

Landis, a professor at the University of Oklahoma, believes that Syria’s neighbors also have a strong interest in seeing refugees return and rebuild. Turkey, which shares a border with Syria, occupies large swaths of its territory, and hosts more than three million refugees, is best positioned and has the most leverage.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who backed and financed the rebels, is seen as the architect of the overthrow of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and is a key ally of Abu Mohammed al-Julani (or Ahmed al-Sharaa). He has close ties to Turkey’s construction industry and is likely to push for reconstruction contracts and rebuilding assistance.

Shares of Turkish construction, cement and steel companies rose after the fall of the Assad government, according to the Wall Street Journal, a stock market report.

For now, Syria’s economic future depends on the ability of the government in Damascus to consolidate control and establish its legitimacy, not only to please its diverse population, but also to please the United States and its allies, who have the final say on sanctions, experts say.