Dr. Dalal Erekat: Israel aims to evacuate the land of its inhabitants to annex it to the colonial settlement project

Khalil Shaheen: The war is pushing towards achieving a long-term Israeli plan for demographic engineering in Gaza

Suleiman Basharat: Israel seeks to undermine the original identity of the Strip and create a new model for Palestinian presence there

Dr. Abdul Majeed Suwailem: The occupation government is trying to cut off a large part of the Gaza Strip to blackmail the world in any future settlement

Nihad Abu Ghosh: The plan may succeed if international silence continues.. and what stands in its way is steadfastness on the ground

In light of the rapid field developments in the Gaza Strip, especially with the Israeli occupation forces implementing the so-called "Generals' Plan" in the northern Gaza Strip, several questions arise about the future of the Strip in light of the plans being implemented to eradicate the northern areas and expand the Netzarim corridor south of Gaza City, amid fears of the return of settlement and control over Gaza's wealth.

In separate interviews with “I”, writers, political analysts and university professors believe that this plan and its goals come in conjunction with increasing calls for resettlement in some areas adjacent to the Strip, which places the fate of Gaza before new challenges and raises increasing fears of radical changes in the geographical, demographic and political map of the Strip.

They point out that these military operations also aim to reduce the population of Gaza through forced or voluntary displacement, taking advantage of the extent of the destruction they cause to infrastructure and housing.

They point out that these acts of destruction are not random, but rather come as part of a long-term plan to reshape the demographic composition of the Strip, which will contribute to facilitating Israeli control over specific areas and transforming Gaza into an area with a lower population density.

In addition to these demographic goals, according to writers, analysts and university professors, Israel seeks to strengthen its economic dominance by controlling Gaza’s wealth, especially the newly discovered gas resources off its coast, as part of a broader plan to control gas resources in the eastern Mediterranean, which would strengthen Israel’s position as a major energy source in the region and open the door to old and new settlement projects in the Strip.

They explain that Israel seeks to re-impose its administration on parts of Gaza, or to establish local government areas under direct or indirect Israeli supervision, but they believe that everything Israel plans may clash with the steadfastness of the resistance, and the growing regional and international positions opposing these plans, but the future of Gaza remains dependent on the political and military balances in the region.

The eradication of resistance was a pretext for displacement and settlement.

Dr. Dalal Erekat, Professor of Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution at the Arab American University, confirms that Israeli policies towards the Gaza Strip, one year after the genocide, prove to the world that Israel is not targeting Hamas alone, but rather a comprehensive colonial settlement project that aims to annex what remains of Palestinian land.

Erekat points out that the strategy pursued by the far-right government led by Benjamin Netanyahu, and what was leaked on October 13, reveals an Israeli military and intelligence plan that seeks to displace the residents of Gaza, whether voluntarily or forcibly, to Sinai, with the aim of emptying the land of its inhabitants in preparation for annexing it to the Israeli settlement project.

Erekat explains that this plan is not new, but rather part of the completion of the colonial project that Israel has long sought, as Erekat believes that Netanyahu and his extremist government are seeking to achieve this strategy by all possible means.

Erekat believes that the next phase may witness more settlement or an Israeli civil administration to rule Gaza, noting that Israel's greatest goal is not to eliminate Hamas, but to control the land and displace its population.

Erekat points out that all the practices of genocide, starvation and siege, in addition to avoiding any international trial or punishment for these crimes, serve this strategic goal.

Working to completely separate Gaza from the West Bank

Erekat warns that Israel is working to completely separate the Gaza Strip from the West Bank, which represents a direct threat to the right of self-determination of the Palestinian people, as well as the possibility of establishing a separate state in Gaza, separate from the West Bank.

Erekat considers this a major threat to the unity of the Palestinian territory, noting that there are scenarios for establishing a government under international or regional supervision in Gaza, which will strengthen Israel's control over the West Bank and weaken the possibility of establishing an integrated Palestinian state that combines the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

On the other hand, Erekat explains that eradicating the resistance was the main pretext that Israel relied on at the beginning of the war on Gaza, but the situation developed into a comprehensive crime of genocide targeting the Palestinian people in all their spectrums.

Erekat points out that the Israeli military operations use all kinds of force and military equipment, including missiles, to destroy everything humane in Gaza.

Erekat also believes that many of the analyses that linked the October 7 attack to an attempt to obstruct normalization agreements between Israel and some Arab countries were not successful.

Erekat explains that the attack has postponed these agreements, but has not prevented them completely, and that they are likely to return to the forefront at any time, especially if stopping the Palestinian bloodshed in the Gaza Strip is offered as the price for these agreements.

Reducing the area of the sector and reducing its population

Writer and political analyst Khalil Shaheen explains that the war on the Gaza Strip, from the perspective of Israeli military and political strategies, can be explained by referring to the statements of the head of the Israeli National Security Council, Tzachi Hanegbi, in October 2023, days after the outbreak of the war.

According to Shaheen, Hanegbi pointed to the uncertainty about the outcome of the war on the Gaza Strip, but he emphasized two basic goals: reducing the area of the Gaza Strip, and reducing its population.

Shaheen believes that these statements, despite not being officially announced, highlight the real Israeli goals, which go beyond eliminating Hamas’s military capabilities and governance in Gaza and recovering the Israeli detainees, to what can be described as “demographic engineering” of the Strip.

Shaheen points out that this engineering is carried out through the widespread destruction of infrastructure, housing and institutions in Gaza, which leads to the displacement of residents from their areas.

According to Shaheen, Israel's intentions are clear through imposing military control over parts of the Gaza Strip, including the Netzarim axis in the center and the Philadelphi axis on the border with Egypt, in addition to the border strip from north to south of the Strip, which could amount to control over about a quarter of Gaza's area.

These military operations, according to the point of view of writer and political analyst Khalil Shaheen, aim to push the residents of Gaza either to forced displacement or voluntary migration in the future, given that the Strip, due to the war, has become an uninhabitable area and lacks the minimum necessities of life.

Shaheen believes that the war on the Gaza Strip is pushing towards achieving a long-term plan for demographic engineering in Gaza, by reducing the population and turning the Strip into an area with a lower population density.

Shahin cites the expansion of the Netzarim Corridor and the Philadelphi Corridor as indications of Israel's intentions to stay in the Strip for the long haul.

A bigger plan than the "generals' plan" to empty northern Gaza

Shaheen points out that the ongoing Israeli military operations in northern Gaza go beyond the “generals’ plan” proposed by General Yigal Eiland, which aimed to displace the population from northern Gaza towards the south. The extent of the destruction in Jabalia, Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun and elsewhere reflects the seriousness of what is happening, as shelters are being destroyed and burned to further prevent the population from returning to those areas.

Shaheen sees these measures as part of a larger plan to empty northern Gaza, where Israeli military operations are being carried out without a clear explanation of the ultimate goal, but he suggests that Israel may be implementing a mix of circulating military plans, including the ideas of the occupation’s Minister of Defense, Yoav Galant, regarding the creation of pocket areas in the northern Gaza Strip to bring in and distribute aid in a way that would divide the population and manage these areas through individuals or local gangs.

Shaheen believes that there is a growing trend within the Israeli government to return settlement to the Gaza Strip, especially after the statements of ministers such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, who held a preparatory conference for settlement in the Strip.

Shaheen believes that Netanyahu, despite leaving the door open to different interpretations, is paving the way for a partial occupation of the Gaza Strip and the continuation of military operations that may eventually lead to the re-settlement of some areas of the Strip, especially the north.

Shaheen warns that the worst-case scenario could come true if the Israeli military occupation of Gaza continues, either through direct administration or through the establishment of local administrations similar to the village associations or the civil administration in the West Bank.

Shaheen points out that this plan, as warned by leaders in the occupation army, will involve Israel in directly managing Gaza, which will increase the burdens without achieving the declared goals such as eliminating Hamas or recovering the Israeli detainees.

Steadfastness in the face of occupation and settlement plans

Shaheen points out that the Palestinian resistance and regional and international positions may obstruct these plans, stressing the importance of the steadfastness of the people of Gaza in the face of forced displacement attempts. He also notes that if the Palestinian factions reach a consensual and comprehensive vision to establish participatory governance structures in Gaza linked to the West Bank, this will enhance regional and international support for the Palestinians.

Shaheen expects that the continuation of the Israeli military occupation of the Gaza Strip may open the door to new settlements in the Strip, but Shaheen, on the other hand, points out that the positions of regional and international parties, especially the US administration, may play a role in preventing the implementation of this plan, in addition to the steadfastness of the Lebanese resistance on the northern front, which may affect the course of the war in Gaza, and therefore the occupation’s plans are not fate.

Israeli goals

Writer and political analyst Suleiman Basharat points out the main goals that Israel seeks to achieve through its military operations in the northern Gaza Strip, which are to create a new model for Palestinian presence in the Strip by establishing a residential neighborhood according to the Israeli vision that can be controlled through a local authority.

Basharat believes that the success of this model will enhance Israel’s ability to apply it to the entire Gaza Strip, allowing it to achieve its goals in the war, as the primary goal, according to this vision, is to reshape the demographic, geographical, political and administrative reality of the Strip, in a manner consistent with what Israel calls “the day after the war.”

Contracting with American security companies to implement the plan

Basharat points out that there is an Israeli military plan based on the vision of Israeli generals, which talks about contracting with American security companies to contribute to implementing this plan, which includes redistributing the Palestinian population from their usual places, with the aim of erasing the population identity and the citizens’ connection to their lands, and this would undermine the original identity of the sector.

Basharat points out that if the plan succeeds in bringing about this demographic change, Israel will rebuild the damaged areas using new engineering and architectural methods, giving the areas a new geographical identity that is completely different from their previous state.

Basharat points out that this Israeli plan imagines the Gaza Strip as geographically separate cantons, each with a different administrative authority, such as a mukhtar or head of a local council, which leads to the destruction of the structural and administrative cohesion of Palestinian society in the Strip.

Basharat believes that this scenario is similar to the geographical and demographic fragmentation that the West Bank is experiencing, where the separation between the governorates has weakened the Palestinian political entity and transformed each governorate into a separate unit with its own concerns.

Basharat believes that this demographic fragmentation is reinforced by the Israeli settlement plan in the Gaza Strip, which aims to dismantle the geographical and demographic structure of the Strip, while Israel justifies its military presence in these areas under the pretext of providing security for the settlers. If this plan is not implemented directly by Israel, Israel may accept an international presence that contributes to controlling some of the buffer zones and implementing settlement projects, while keeping Israel as the main reference in all political, administrative and security aspects.

Control of the sector's wealth

Basharat asserts that the ostensible goal of the Israeli military operation is to eradicate the resistance, but there are other goals related to reshaping the demographic and geographical structure of Gaza, as well as controlling the economic dimension of the Strip, including the newly discovered Palestinian gas resources off the coast of Gaza.

Basharat points out that the success of this plan will allow Israel to control the gas wealth in the eastern Mediterranean, from the coast of Gaza to the coast of Lebanon, which will strengthen its position as a major source of natural gas in the region.

Three scenarios for the future

As for future scenarios, Basharat believes that the current situation is unstable due to the continuation of the war and the lack of clarity in the American political scene in light of the upcoming elections. In addition, the possibility of a confrontation with Iran, as well as the northern front or through a broader escalation, still exists.

Basharat sets out three main scenarios for the future: the continuation of the current conflict in the region, the intervention of the US administration after the elections to impose a ceasefire and move towards a political path, or the situation deteriorating and the region entering a comprehensive regional war in which Iran and Hezbollah participate.

Basharat points out that the success of any of these scenarios depends largely on the ability of the Palestinian resistance and the resistance axis in general to shock the Israeli perception and force it to back down from its plans.

Israel is trying to cut off part of Gaza to blackmail the world

Writer and political analyst Dr. Abdul Majeed Suwailem believes that Israel's military operations and genocide in the Gaza Strip aim to cut off a large part of the Strip, and perhaps more than that, in an attempt to blackmail the international community in any future settlement.

Suwailem explains that Israel seeks, through these military operations and movements in the field, to impose its conditions on the world, pointing out that what is happening will lead to the forced displacement of the population from the Strip as a result of the great pressures that Gaza is exposed to, including the demolition of homes and control of lands, which will push the population to emigrate.

Suwailem believes that Israel may use the reconstruction issue as a tool for blackmail after it destroyed everything related to life in Gaza, stressing that controlling the reconstruction process will be among the Israeli means of pressure.

Suwailem points out that if Israel is forced to withdraw from Gaza, it will try to impose conditions that guarantee its continued control over the Strip, regardless of the names, titles, or tools that may be used to formulate its conditions, whether they are “generals” or others.

Israel suffers defeat

Suwailem points out that Israel is suffering from defeat, and that talk about it being “fate” is incorrect, as Israel is now trying to maneuver so as not to admit defeat, but it will face more crises, and may eventually be forced to leave Gaza without any conditions.

According to Suwailem, since the beginning of the war on the Gaza Strip on October 7 until today, Israel has been trying hard to achieve any victory that would get it out of the crisis it is experiencing. However, all the attempts to kill and starve the people of Gaza have not achieved their goal of eradicating the resistance. On the contrary, the number of resistance fighters in the Gaza Strip today is greater than it was at the beginning of the war, stressing that the resistance has not been eradicated, but rather has grown stronger.

The "day after war" will be difficult and complicated.

Regarding the future of the sector after the war, Suwailem confirms that the day after the war in Gaza will be difficult and complicated, but it will be more difficult and complicated for Israel, as it will become clear that the occupation army has already been defeated.

Suwailem calls for staying away from Israeli propaganda that promotes the defeat of the Palestinians, stressing that Israel is in a very difficult situation.

Suwailem asserts that the future of Gaza after the war will be purely Palestinian, and that the will of the Palestinian people, who have made great sacrifices for the sake of freedom, cannot be broken.

Suwailem stresses that any state, whether from within the region or outside it, that stands against the will of the Palestinian people will pay a heavy price and lose a lot in the long run.

The future of Gaza is decided by the steadfastness of the Palestinians

Writer and political analyst Nihad Abu Ghosh points out that the so-called Israeli “Generals’ Plan” is being implemented in the northern Gaza Strip, although it has not been officially announced as a war crime. However, it is being implemented practically on the ground without any official announcement from Israel.

Abu Ghosh believes that the main goal of this plan is to displace the residents of northern Gaza and seize Palestinian lands, in an attempt to hurt the Palestinians and force them to pay a heavy price for what happened on October 7.

Abu Ghosh points out that this plan may succeed if international silence continues and the world ignores what is happening, but what stands in the way of its implementation is the steadfastness of the citizens and the Palestinian resistance on the ground.

Despite this heroic steadfastness, Abu Ghosh raises a question about the ability of this steadfastness to continue in light of the increasing volume of Israeli crimes.

Regarding Israeli settlement in the Gaza Strip, Abu Ghosh believes that this project receives official support, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is fully aware that these measures constitute a flagrant violation of international law. Nevertheless, Netanyahu is counting on the passage of time and on the world’s acceptance of the reality over time, as he hopes that the international community will adapt to these moves over time.

Abu Ghosh points out that Israel realizes that crimes fuel resistance instead of extinguishing it, so civilians are deliberately targeted in these military operations, with goals that go beyond eradicating resistance, which is impossible to achieve as an achievable goal, and Israel knows very well that its policies fuel resistance even more.

Abu Ghosh believes that the future of Gaza will not be decided by Israeli desires, but rather the future will be decided on the ground through the steadfastness and resistance of the Palestinians.

Abu Ghosh stresses that the future of Gaza will be Palestinian, but this requires strengthening the steadfastness of the citizens and the resistance, and attracting real international support for the Palestinians.

Abu Ghosh points out that Israel is not an inevitable fate for the Palestinians, and that the will of the Palestinian people is sufficient to thwart Israeli plans.